Down 0.9% this week, on market fluctuations due to the Ukraine and China data

I was down 0.9% last week, as my holdings did pretty well, and my loss was due to a bad bet on the price of natural gas.  I bought HNU just above the 50-day moving average betting that it would bounce off it but it went down through it.  As per my rules, I sold the HNU once I saw that it was below the 50-day MA.


My YTD return is 10.16%, compared to 4.4% for the TSX 60, so I am still doing well for the year.  I am currently 67.6% invested right now, with the rest in cash, waiting to deploy.  My holdings include precious metals (HBU, HZU, and MTO), other resources (TBE, TLM), and EMA, BA, XSR, and ZEB. 


MTO (that I have written about in previous posts) had an especially good week, as they announced that they had expanded their main resource at their Bachelor mine, by perhaps as much as 33%.  We are still waiting for MTO to announce the drill results at their Barry mine, which could push the share price up further.


Both TLM and XSR are below their 50-day MA's but near levels of support, so I still hold them but I will sell them quickly if they drop much more.  BA and TBE are both right at their 50-day MA's, so I may have to sell them soon as well if they drop.


There are many new buys as of Friday, including HOU, HVU, ERF, PDN (that I sold recently), QBR.B, RUS, and SPM.  I am also looking at HGU, which has been doing well lately but it still well below recent highs.


For Monday, I want to see how the Russia / Ukraine referendum issue is working out before I decide to deploy more money or sell some securities.  Of the buys, I am most likely to purchase HGU, HOU, HVU, ERF, and QBR.B.


I am still doing pretty well for this year but the Ukraine uncertainty and the fact that the US markets might be overbought both point to a possible correction in the next few months.  That said, March and April are often the last couple of months to make money before the "Sell in May and go away" axiom kicks in.

Up about 1% this week...

I am up about 1% this week, to a total YTD return of 11.07%, compared to the YTD return of the TSX of 5%, so I am still doing well.  I was up higher during the week but closed the week with a down day on Friday.


I am currently 77% invested in stocks and ETF's, with the rest in cash.  I am currently into precious metals - HBU, HZU, and MTO, and some energy - TBE and TLM.  I am also in EMA, XSR, BA, HFU, and TCM.  All of these are above the 50-day moving average line except for XSR and TLM.


For XSR and TLM, it looked to me that they were hitting a multiple-bottom, which generally shows support for the stock price.  I saw the XSR support around 8.30 so I purchased it at 8.50 recently and it closed Friday at 8.99 (right at the 50-day MA).  TLM's support looks to be around 11.00 so it if drops much from here I will simply dump it.


There are many stocks that I follow that are just newly above the 50-day MA line that I am looking to purchase on Monday - DWI, MFC, PGF, QBR.B, RUS, SNC, SU, TCW, and TGL.  Many of these stocks are great blue chip Canadian companies, but I am not sure which ones (if any) that I will purchase on Monday.  Having so many stocks with buy signals Monday is exactly the reason why I always try to have some cash ready to invest.


As March goes on, precious metals typically weaken so I have stop losses in on those securities - the exception to this could be if there are external forces (like Ukraine) that affect gold.  The gain that gold got this past Thursday was given back on Friday, so it is pretty volatile.


I still think that there is a correction coming, since valuations are getting very high, especially in the US.  That said, I don't invest on speculation and I follow the 50-day MA line.


I am doing well so far this year, so I will continue to follow my rules.

A choppy week, but up 1.5% for the week

The markets did pretty well this week but gold took a bit of a hit, so my results were up and down for the week but ended up about 1.5% for the week.  I am up 10.1% YTD - compared to the TSX index which is up 4.3% YTD - so I am still doing pretty well this year.


Right now, I am 82% invested in stocks and ETF's, with the rest in cash.  I hold precious metals (HBU, HZU, BTO, MTO, and YRI), base metals (TKO), financials (HFU), energy (LTS, PD, TBE) and a couple of dividend stallwarts (BA and EMA).  I had two uranium stocks - CCO and PDN - but they jumped quickly this week so I sold them.  I will keep an eye on them, with the goal of buying them back at lower prices.


MTO put out good news yesterday (they halted to do it), publishing their first production costs for their gold since going into commercial production (and it was a great number, under $US 800 / oz), so MTO had a nice strong close and will hopefully get lots of attention at the PDAC conference next week in Toronto (takeovers of gold mining companies should really pick up this year, especially the ones with production already, low cash costs, and expanding resources).


I am looking at a few securities for Monday, that are now showing buy signals - HNU (natural gas ETF), IVN (mining), and some others of lesser interest since they are already trading near their highs (ARE, HSE, MFC, RUS, and THI).  I am also still keeping an eye on WIN, as it has been steady for a long time, and it is right near the buy signal (but not there yet).


I am also watching XSR even though it is not near its buy signal, since it looks to be forming a quadruple bottom (a sign of good support).  If it moves up a bit from here, I will likely pick up a few shares for a trade (then buy more when / if it moves up an crosses the 50-day moving average line).


My system is working for me so far this year (and I would be up even more - another 3% or so - if I didn't fall back into some bad habits, that I am trying to avoid).

An up and down (but even) week...

This was a pretty up and down week, with a big down day for me on Wednesday and the other three days being up to even things out.  I closed the week with a YTD overall return of 8.64%, as compared with the YTD return of the TSX of 4.3%, so I am still doing pretty well.  I managed to avoid my bad habits this past week, largely because I am so fully invested and have no funds available to day trade.


At this point, I am 88% invested in securities, with the remainder in cash, ready to deploy.




I still have lots of precious metals holdings - HBU, HZU, BTO, MTO, and YRI - and I still have a few in the energy space - LTS, PD, and TBE.  I have some other miners - CCO, PDN, and TKO - and a utility (EMA) and a financial (HFU).  I also still have a small amount of DWI.  This past week, I added to my positions in MTO and HZU.




Some sell indicators at the close on Friday are on PDN and DWI, so I will look at unloading these on Monday (with stop losses, of course).




There aren't any new buys as of the close on Friday (HFU, CCO, and TBE are all buys but I already own them), so I won't be looking to pick up any new stocks right away on Monday.  That said, BB looks interesting at 10.17, so I may dip my toe in there a bit.




I am also keeping an eye on natural gas since it has risen to much lately, and may look to get into HND, to profit if the natural gas price settles back a bit.




Most of my holdings are solidly in hold territory, so there isn't much to do right away on Monday, so I will mostly sit tight.

A Good Week to Own Resource Stocks...

This past week was a lot better than last week - this week my portfolio was up 5%, whereas last week it was down 2.3% (mostly due to bad habits that I mentioned in my last post).  This week, I stuck to the plan and followed the moving averages and gold and silver had a great week so that helps as well.


I still own a lot of precious metals securities - HBU (gold bullion ETF), HZU (silver ETF), BTO (junior gold producer), MTO (junior gold producer), and YRI (mid-tier gold producer).  I also have other mining stocks such as CCO (uranium), PDN (uranium), TCM (mostly moly), and TKO (copper).




I have a couple of energy related stocks - LTS and PD, a technology stock (DWI), and a utility (EMA) to round out my portfolio.  As of today, I am 82% invested overall (with the rest in cash, waiting to deploy).




The markets are a little uncertain right now, as the minor correction was shorter (about 6%) than most had expected, so I am not sure if being more heavily invested right now is a good idea.  That said, I follow the graphs and do what they tell me, and don't pay too much attention to macro-economic news.




For this Tues, new buy signals are from HFU (financials ETF), GLN (telecom), SU (energy), TBE (energy), and WIN (technology).  I am most likely to purchase TBE and WIN on Monday (I also think both are takeover targets, especially WIN).  I am also looking at HNU (natural gas ETF), as it looks like it has room to move upwards and it isn't far from the 50-day moving average line.


Year-to-date, my portfolio return is now 8.71%, compared to the TSX YTD return of 3.2%, so I am still well ahead of the benchmark that I am comparing against.  Had I not fallen back into bad habits (as I described in my last post), I would be well over 10% YTD right now, so I have to try to resist that temptation and stick with my strategy that is working (at least for now).  I still expect a 10%+ correction in the next 3 to 5 months, but even if this DOES happen, gold bullion, silver, and even gold stocks should perform pretty well (or at least not as bad as the overall market).


In any case, I will continue to follow the moving averages and do what they say.

February Starts as January Ends

Well, another tough week for my investments this week.  Ahead of Monday's big drop, I was not only mostly out of equities but I was also in some of the 'negative' ETF's, as they had signaled a buy.  This looked great on Monday but then the market came back for the rest of the week, more than making up for Monday's losses (my gains).  The markets seem very uncertain right now so I am not sure why they aren't still correcting, but that is the nonsensical part of investing in the markets.  When using moving averages, I want the markets to pick a direction (up or down, I don't care) and keep going in that direction for awhile.  When the markets have swings from positive to negative, that is what creates a lot of false buys and sells and causes problems for my method.


YTD, my return is still positive, at 3.8%.  This still compares well with the TSX YTD return, which stands at 1.2% for 2014.  My goal is to stay ahead of this index, but weeks like this past one won't help me.


At this point, I am 69% invested in equities.  I do have a sell signal on one of my ETF's - HQU - so if it continues to go down on Monday (ie. the Nasdaq goes up), then I will sell it.  A similar ETF - HSD - is also close to a sell signal.


A few of the securities I hold are at buy signals right now (I will hold, but won't buy more at this point) - HBU, DWI, and PDN.  The signal is bullish but I already bought these at similar levels so I won't buy more of them at this time.


My portfolio also includes gold miners BTO and MTO, commodity miners PDN, TKO and LIM, energy stocks LTS and PD, and utility EMA.


There are a few securities that closed with a buy signal on Friday that I will take a look at on Monday, including HEU, HQU (the opposite of the HQD I hold), HZU (silver ETF that really interests me), XVX, CCO, MEG, T, TBE, and WIN.


I get into some bad habits sometimes (trying to day-trade), which I did this week and it cost me.  It looks like easy money but it is really hard trying to decide when to get in and out, so I need to stick to my strategy that worked for the early part of this year.  Up and down markets may be in the cards, though, for the next few months, and this makes it very hard for my strategy.

January Ends With a Whimper (for my portfolio, at least)

Well, after having a total return of 10.5% on January 20, the last two weeks of January weren't as kind to me and I ended the month with a total return of 6.1% YTD.  That is actually a very good return for one month, especially when the TSX Composite had a return of only .5% during that same period.  This is the index that I compare my performance to, as I primarily buy Canadian securities and it is my 'home' exchange.


Despite the recent weakness in the gold price (perhaps due to the Chinese being off work for a week for their New Year?), I am still pretty heavily invested in gold ETF's and stocks - HBU, HGU, ZJG, MTO, and K.  I am also in some other metals miners - TKO, LIM, and PDN.


Also, the US markets are at an inflection point - the S&P is indicating sell and the Nasdaq just indicated buy - so you have to carefully pick your horses here.  I bought the HSD (betting on the S&P going down), but I will be ready to sell it again if the markets don't, in fact, go down.


Rounding out my portfolio right now are EMA, DWI, LW, and MBT.  Currently, I am 72% invested with the remainder in cash.  I don't own any bonds right now but I have in the past so I may take a look at them. 


The markets are a little uncertain right now so I am not sure if I want to more fully invested or not, but I do follow the moving averages so I usually do what they tell me.  For Monday, some securities that have just indicated buy signals are HED, HVU, XVX, COS, LTS, PD and TCW (both drillers), and TBE.  I will likely buy HED and HVU, betting on a market correction in the US (at least a moderate one), but I won't know for sure until Monday.


I have to be happy with my return YTD when compared to the markets - my goal remains to preserve capital and try to grow my holdings.