As you know from my earlier posts, I have been expecting a correction of some sort in October, and the 4.1% decline in the TSX this past week seems to be the beginning of that. Consumer confidence is down, and even though GDP is up in Canada and the US, that is likely the result of all the government stimulus and not any real improvement in the economy.
I had been gradually reducing my holdings all summer, and I actually sold the last of my stocks (MSI.UN, TRP, and YLO.un) on Thursday. Late Thursday, I actually bought HXD (TSX double down ETF) and HGD (Gold stocks double down ETF) and held them throughout most of Friday's big plunge (the moving average lines said to buy them, so I did, but I got nervous and sold them after making a bit of cash). I sold them before the end of the day, so I actually am 100% in cash right now.
I am not getting any interest at all in my accounts, so I admit that this investing strategy is not brilliant, but I am in capital preservation mode right now, so this helps me sleep at night. If none of the so-called experts knows where the market is heading right now, then how are small investors like me (us) supposed to make investing decisions?
I am still looking at safe ways to make a guaranteed return, and I may just open a high-interest savings account, to I don't tie up my money. High interest is a bit of a misnomer here, as I think I can only get .75% to 1.0% on my money right now, but I can access it any time and transfer it to my trading accounts if I decide to get back into the market on a large scale. This is only my non-RRSP money, and I will use my RRSP accounts first, when I decide to get back into securities (since the gains are tax-deferred).
There are some things I am looking to buy next week, but most of them are the 'down' ETF's. I use the Horizon Betapro 'double' ETF's. The ones that are a buy (or hold) for early next week are HED (energy), HFD (financials), HGD (gold stocks), HQD (Nasdaq), HSD (S&P in the US), and HXD (TSX). Remember, all of these ETF's go UP if there underlying areas go DOWN. I will warn you that if you are wrong on the down ETF's, it does give you a sick feeling when you lose money when the market is actually going UP.
Even with the TSX going down over 4% this past week, and other indices declining as well, it was a break-even week for me since I had the down ETF's.
Well, that is enough for today. Good luck next week, and let's hope the market finds some direction soon (up OR down, I don't care).
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Weekly Update (and the ever-climbing market)
Well, another week has passed and the market correction hasn't happened yet. Earnings last week weren't spectacular but they weren't bad enough to bring the market down, as everyone seems to be waiting for.
Many stocks that I watch continue to move sideways but I continue to buy and sell as the graphs tell me to. I can't give up my method now, but I will admit it gets frustrating when you have to sell a stock a day or two after you buy it.
I am currently in a couple of ETF's - HBU (Gold bullion) and HFU (Financials), and many stocks - AGU (Agrium), FTT (Finning), MFC (Manulife), MSI.un (Morneau Sobeco), PDP (Prolifera), PWF (Power Financial), TCM (Thompson Creek Metals), and YLO.un (Yellow Pages).
I am 24.5% invested right now, with the balance in cash. I really hate getting no interest on the cash but I haven't found anything that is safe and worthwhile, at this point. If anyone has any suggestions that can get me at least a few percent interest and no, or very little downside, please let me know.
I am up 51.4% for the year so far, although I am down a bit in October. I have been positive every month since last November (there, I probably jinxed myself now), so I would like to continue that streak. The best I could likely hope for at this point is a nice little pullback - I would sell the securities I hold right now, then buy back in when the market resumes its upwards push. There is still lots of cash on the sidelines (including mine) waiting to get into this market, but I don't feel comfortable putting much more in at this point.
For Monday, I am looking to perhaps sell MFC, HFU, PWF, and TCM if they move downwards on Monday, as they are all right at the sell line right now. On the other hand, I am looking to pick up some THI (Tim Horton's), TRP (TransCanada Pipelines), and maybe some more PDP (Prolifera, to lower my average cost) on Monday, as they have all just cross upwards into buy territory.
Thus, the game continues...
Many stocks that I watch continue to move sideways but I continue to buy and sell as the graphs tell me to. I can't give up my method now, but I will admit it gets frustrating when you have to sell a stock a day or two after you buy it.
I am currently in a couple of ETF's - HBU (Gold bullion) and HFU (Financials), and many stocks - AGU (Agrium), FTT (Finning), MFC (Manulife), MSI.un (Morneau Sobeco), PDP (Prolifera), PWF (Power Financial), TCM (Thompson Creek Metals), and YLO.un (Yellow Pages).
I am 24.5% invested right now, with the balance in cash. I really hate getting no interest on the cash but I haven't found anything that is safe and worthwhile, at this point. If anyone has any suggestions that can get me at least a few percent interest and no, or very little downside, please let me know.
I am up 51.4% for the year so far, although I am down a bit in October. I have been positive every month since last November (there, I probably jinxed myself now), so I would like to continue that streak. The best I could likely hope for at this point is a nice little pullback - I would sell the securities I hold right now, then buy back in when the market resumes its upwards push. There is still lots of cash on the sidelines (including mine) waiting to get into this market, but I don't feel comfortable putting much more in at this point.
For Monday, I am looking to perhaps sell MFC, HFU, PWF, and TCM if they move downwards on Monday, as they are all right at the sell line right now. On the other hand, I am looking to pick up some THI (Tim Horton's), TRP (TransCanada Pipelines), and maybe some more PDP (Prolifera, to lower my average cost) on Monday, as they have all just cross upwards into buy territory.
Thus, the game continues...
Monday, October 12, 2009
Back to the Blog...
Sorry I haven't updated lately, but there is lots going on (outside of stocks). I have been buying and selling over the last few weeks, as the moving average lines have indicated that I do. I rode up Gold in the HGU (would have been better in the HBU), and I made some money on energy in the HEU.
Right now, I hold Manitoba Tel (MBT), BCE Inc (BCE), Finning Int's (FTT), Manulife (MFC), Prolifera (PDP), and Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.un). I have less YLO than I have in the past, as I sold into strength on its 15% run in September, and I have PDP as a speculative stock (although I am still following the lines and they said to buy). I try to stick with blue chip stocks but I still follow a couple of spec stocks from my past.
I may have to sell BCE and MBT on Tuesday, as they are in 'Sell' territory, although MBT is at its support level around $32. I will sell it if it drops much more. Also, FTT and MFC at at 'Buy' (I bought them late last week), which means they could quickly become 'Sells' if the market drops this week.
I am watching a few stocks and ETF's to buy on Tuesday - HFU (Financial 2X ETF), HOU (Oil 2X ETF), AGU (Agrium - fertilizer, etc.), HSE (Husky), MSI.un (Morneau Sobeco income fund). I will put in stop-buys on all of these securities today and pick them up tomorrow if their prices strengthen a bit. I like to buy stocks on upward momentum, not only in the graphs but also on the day I actually buy them.
YTD, I am up 51.4% for the year. I have been positive (by at least a little bit) every month since last November. I am a little bit negative so far in October, but it is early in the month. I am still chipping away at the loss I had on the first of the month. I am still expecting the market to pull back, sometime soon, as investors lock in some of their profits, but I will continue to follow the graphs until that happens. Earnings have been fairly strong lately, and a few US banks report this week so that will show us how the financials are doing.
I am just under 14% invested (in stocks and ETF's) right now, with the remainder in cash. I looked for money market funds and other 'safe' investments for my cash but the return is so low, I am just choosing to leave it in cash. This way, I lock in my gains from earlier in the year, I won't lose a significant amount in any correction, and I have lots of cash ready to buy stocks and ETF's on the next leg up.
Right now, I hold Manitoba Tel (MBT), BCE Inc (BCE), Finning Int's (FTT), Manulife (MFC), Prolifera (PDP), and Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.un). I have less YLO than I have in the past, as I sold into strength on its 15% run in September, and I have PDP as a speculative stock (although I am still following the lines and they said to buy). I try to stick with blue chip stocks but I still follow a couple of spec stocks from my past.
I may have to sell BCE and MBT on Tuesday, as they are in 'Sell' territory, although MBT is at its support level around $32. I will sell it if it drops much more. Also, FTT and MFC at at 'Buy' (I bought them late last week), which means they could quickly become 'Sells' if the market drops this week.
I am watching a few stocks and ETF's to buy on Tuesday - HFU (Financial 2X ETF), HOU (Oil 2X ETF), AGU (Agrium - fertilizer, etc.), HSE (Husky), MSI.un (Morneau Sobeco income fund). I will put in stop-buys on all of these securities today and pick them up tomorrow if their prices strengthen a bit. I like to buy stocks on upward momentum, not only in the graphs but also on the day I actually buy them.
YTD, I am up 51.4% for the year. I have been positive (by at least a little bit) every month since last November. I am a little bit negative so far in October, but it is early in the month. I am still chipping away at the loss I had on the first of the month. I am still expecting the market to pull back, sometime soon, as investors lock in some of their profits, but I will continue to follow the graphs until that happens. Earnings have been fairly strong lately, and a few US banks report this week so that will show us how the financials are doing.
I am just under 14% invested (in stocks and ETF's) right now, with the remainder in cash. I looked for money market funds and other 'safe' investments for my cash but the return is so low, I am just choosing to leave it in cash. This way, I lock in my gains from earlier in the year, I won't lose a significant amount in any correction, and I have lots of cash ready to buy stocks and ETF's on the next leg up.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Weekly Summary
It has been a busy week for me (outside of stocks), but I still managed to make a little bit of money (up .7% on the week). That doesn't seem like much, but you have to remember that I am only 15 - 20 % invested right now, with the rest in cash. I am still waiting for the Sept - Oct correction to start, but who knows, it may not come at all...
I would have to say that my latest 'favourite' equity is the Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.un), of all things (I don't really have favourites, as I try to keep emotion out of stocks, but it looks solid to me). I had first bought some units back on Sept 8, but I bought many more units this week, as the unit price looks stable, it was paying a distribution rate of almost 16%, and their latest financials seemed to show that they were getting their shit together in their move towards digital and away from the old yellow phone books (and they are profitable, from what I could see).
YLO.un jumped 3.5% today alone, for some reason. No recent news that I can find, but I guess the selling finally subsided (the buying has always been there). We will have to see if we get some news next week, and if today's gains hold, but today was certainly a good sign. Personally, I am expecting YLO.un to return to the $6 - 7 level, but that is just me. I am in below $5, so if the distribution stays strong, I am getting paid 16% or so to wait. I read today that they are only paying out 60% as distributions so that should be easily sustainable, especially if they are getting their shit together.
As of today, I own YLO.un, MBT (Manitoba Telecom), RCI.B (Rogers Comm.), HSU (S&P ETF), and PWF (Power Financial). Some of the stocks that I am keeping an eye on (to buy) for next week include HSE (Husky), WJA (Westjet), and Enbridge (ENF.un) although these all have to rise a bit before I will grab them. My return YTD is 52.8%.
I would have to say that my latest 'favourite' equity is the Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.un), of all things (I don't really have favourites, as I try to keep emotion out of stocks, but it looks solid to me). I had first bought some units back on Sept 8, but I bought many more units this week, as the unit price looks stable, it was paying a distribution rate of almost 16%, and their latest financials seemed to show that they were getting their shit together in their move towards digital and away from the old yellow phone books (and they are profitable, from what I could see).
YLO.un jumped 3.5% today alone, for some reason. No recent news that I can find, but I guess the selling finally subsided (the buying has always been there). We will have to see if we get some news next week, and if today's gains hold, but today was certainly a good sign. Personally, I am expecting YLO.un to return to the $6 - 7 level, but that is just me. I am in below $5, so if the distribution stays strong, I am getting paid 16% or so to wait. I read today that they are only paying out 60% as distributions so that should be easily sustainable, especially if they are getting their shit together.
As of today, I own YLO.un, MBT (Manitoba Telecom), RCI.B (Rogers Comm.), HSU (S&P ETF), and PWF (Power Financial). Some of the stocks that I am keeping an eye on (to buy) for next week include HSE (Husky), WJA (Westjet), and Enbridge (ENF.un) although these all have to rise a bit before I will grab them. My return YTD is 52.8%.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Another Week Comes to an End
It turned out to be a pretty good week on the markets, especially for natural gas, but the key theme seemed to be volatility. Even though I use the graphs to decide when to buy and sell, in general, I seem to be taking profits more quickly these days than I normally do. For example, when Encana announced they were going ahead with plans to split into two companies - estimated to be worth $65 separately - I sold when the stock jumped to $63. I reasoned that the jump was more than I had planned to make in that short time, and that either natural gas or Encana itself could easily weaken next week.
Today, to close the week, I sold ECA, RUS, BTE.un, and ENF.un. The one of these that I regretted the most was Baytex (BTE.UN) but the drop in the price of oil of over $2.60 per barrel made me think that weakness could be on the way for oil stocks.
I still own a few equities - RCI.B (Rogers Communications), HFU (Financial ETF), MBT (Manitoba Telecom), COS.UN (Canadian Oilsands), and YLO.UN (Yellow Pages Income Fund). With the volatile markets, I like the idea of collecting distributions from trusts but the loss that I could easily incur in the unit price could easily outpace the distributions that I would be paid. I don't want to let the potential distributions sidetrack me from my strategy.
I am up a collective 51.5% YTD on all my accounts, so I am certainly happy with that. Also, I have not had a negative month since October 2008 (although it was a HUGE down month), so I have a good string of positive months going. The summer was slow, but things seem to be picking up a bit now that traders are back from summer vacation.
I am still expecting a 5 - 15% correction in the markets, to consolidate support, in the next couple of months.
On a separate note, I opened a TSFA last month at TD, so I want to choose an equity to invest in there. I want to grow that as much as possible, since it is tax free. With $29 buy and sell fees, though, and only a $5,000 initial balance, I want to choose the equity carefully.
Today, to close the week, I sold ECA, RUS, BTE.un, and ENF.un. The one of these that I regretted the most was Baytex (BTE.UN) but the drop in the price of oil of over $2.60 per barrel made me think that weakness could be on the way for oil stocks.
I still own a few equities - RCI.B (Rogers Communications), HFU (Financial ETF), MBT (Manitoba Telecom), COS.UN (Canadian Oilsands), and YLO.UN (Yellow Pages Income Fund). With the volatile markets, I like the idea of collecting distributions from trusts but the loss that I could easily incur in the unit price could easily outpace the distributions that I would be paid. I don't want to let the potential distributions sidetrack me from my strategy.
I am up a collective 51.5% YTD on all my accounts, so I am certainly happy with that. Also, I have not had a negative month since October 2008 (although it was a HUGE down month), so I have a good string of positive months going. The summer was slow, but things seem to be picking up a bit now that traders are back from summer vacation.
I am still expecting a 5 - 15% correction in the markets, to consolidate support, in the next couple of months.
On a separate note, I opened a TSFA last month at TD, so I want to choose an equity to invest in there. I want to grow that as much as possible, since it is tax free. With $29 buy and sell fees, though, and only a $5,000 initial balance, I want to choose the equity carefully.
Monday, September 7, 2009
Weekly Update
The markets are continuing to move basically sideways, but I am still following the moving average rules and jumping in when the graphs tell me to. On Friday, I added HJU (Horizons Emerging Markets), HSU (Horizon US S&P 500), BTE.un (Baytex Energy) and PWF (Power Financial). I bought them all on upswings and 3 of them finished up for the day.
In addition to the holdings I added on Friday, I also currently own RUS (Russel Metals), MBT (Manitoba Telecom), TRP (TransCanada Pipelines), TCW (Trican Well Services), and HBU (Horizons Gold Bullion).
As I have posted earlier, I am still expecting a 5 - 15% pullback this month or next so I am ready to liquidate again, when the graphs tell me to. Currently, I am 26% invested in stocks (the rest in cash) and I am up 49.8% YTD. When the correction starts (if it does), I will stand to take some losses, but I can't make money if I am not in the market, at least to some extent. I have been as low as 3.5% in stocks this summer, and as high as 50%, and I expect my ratio to fluctuate with the markets. I tend to buy on the way up and sell on the way down, so I will keep posting my moves to detail my progress.
In addition to the holdings I added on Friday, I also currently own RUS (Russel Metals), MBT (Manitoba Telecom), TRP (TransCanada Pipelines), TCW (Trican Well Services), and HBU (Horizons Gold Bullion).
As I have posted earlier, I am still expecting a 5 - 15% pullback this month or next so I am ready to liquidate again, when the graphs tell me to. Currently, I am 26% invested in stocks (the rest in cash) and I am up 49.8% YTD. When the correction starts (if it does), I will stand to take some losses, but I can't make money if I am not in the market, at least to some extent. I have been as low as 3.5% in stocks this summer, and as high as 50%, and I expect my ratio to fluctuate with the markets. I tend to buy on the way up and sell on the way down, so I will keep posting my moves to detail my progress.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
The End of Another Week
For the most part, the market moved sideways this week, which is bad for me. I don't really care which direction it goes - I just want it to pick a direction and keep going that way (although up IS easier, and easier to stomach).
I ended the week owning the ETF's HOU (oil) and HBU (gold bullion) and the stocks TCM, MBT, LIF.un, ECA, TRP, and PWF. Two of these stocks - TCM and MBT are in 'don't buy' territory, but they both appear to have very good support at their current levels. MBT has hit $32 a few times and has not gone below (plus they are a regional telcom and a good takeover target for the big boys) and TCM just announced a big financing at $14, so it shouldn't drop much below its current level around $13 (and shouldn't really have dropped that far in the first place).
For Monday next week, I am looking at new buys RCI.b, TCW, HGU (gold stock ETF), and HEU (energy ETF). I will get into the ones that open strong on Monday. I am also keeping a close eye on LIF.un, TCM and MBT, as they are all below their 40-day moving averages ('don't hold' territory, for my trading rules).
I am about 21% in stocks right now (the rest in cash), since I am still expecting a pullback of 5 - 15% in the fall. As long as the indicators say to buy, though, I am comfortable adding to my portfolio with the stocks mentioned above. I don't want to miss a big upmove in the market, which could come right before the correction I am expecting.
I ended the week owning the ETF's HOU (oil) and HBU (gold bullion) and the stocks TCM, MBT, LIF.un, ECA, TRP, and PWF. Two of these stocks - TCM and MBT are in 'don't buy' territory, but they both appear to have very good support at their current levels. MBT has hit $32 a few times and has not gone below (plus they are a regional telcom and a good takeover target for the big boys) and TCM just announced a big financing at $14, so it shouldn't drop much below its current level around $13 (and shouldn't really have dropped that far in the first place).
For Monday next week, I am looking at new buys RCI.b, TCW, HGU (gold stock ETF), and HEU (energy ETF). I will get into the ones that open strong on Monday. I am also keeping a close eye on LIF.un, TCM and MBT, as they are all below their 40-day moving averages ('don't hold' territory, for my trading rules).
I am about 21% in stocks right now (the rest in cash), since I am still expecting a pullback of 5 - 15% in the fall. As long as the indicators say to buy, though, I am comfortable adding to my portfolio with the stocks mentioned above. I don't want to miss a big upmove in the market, which could come right before the correction I am expecting.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Today's Action
As you have likely noticed, I have decided not to update my actions every day - it is just too boring, plus it pisses me off writing about a loss or a missed opportunity on the same day that it happened.
Today, I sold out of PN (a small online photo processing company) that I had a few shares of, as it has had a nice run lately. It will likely keep rising, but I don't like to get greedy.
I didn't sell any other stocks today, but I did pick up some Encana - great company, and natural gas is so low, it just HAS to go up sometime (doesn't it?).
One of the companies I follow - Thompson Creek Metals (TCM) - announced a financing yesterday (at $14 per share) and promptly dropped over $1 today, to $13.82. The share price is now just below the 40-day moving average, but it should find support there, since the financing was at $14. I will be looking to pick up some shares around the $14 level, when it passes upwards through the 40-day.
I may have to sell LIF.un tomorrow, if it goes down a bit more. Discipline is the key to my investing strategy, and also the key to limiting losses. Both HBU and X are buys for tomorrow as well, but they have both burned me in the past so I am a bit gunshy and will hold tight.
Something still tells me there will be a 5 - 10% correction in the next few weeks, but if I am wrong, I will jump back into stocks when the graphs tell me too. Many stocks are almost at the buy level, or they will hit the 40-day line and then tank downwards - time will tell.
I now hold ECA, MFC, PWF, LIF.un, and TRP.
Today, I sold out of PN (a small online photo processing company) that I had a few shares of, as it has had a nice run lately. It will likely keep rising, but I don't like to get greedy.
I didn't sell any other stocks today, but I did pick up some Encana - great company, and natural gas is so low, it just HAS to go up sometime (doesn't it?).
One of the companies I follow - Thompson Creek Metals (TCM) - announced a financing yesterday (at $14 per share) and promptly dropped over $1 today, to $13.82. The share price is now just below the 40-day moving average, but it should find support there, since the financing was at $14. I will be looking to pick up some shares around the $14 level, when it passes upwards through the 40-day.
I may have to sell LIF.un tomorrow, if it goes down a bit more. Discipline is the key to my investing strategy, and also the key to limiting losses. Both HBU and X are buys for tomorrow as well, but they have both burned me in the past so I am a bit gunshy and will hold tight.
Something still tells me there will be a 5 - 10% correction in the next few weeks, but if I am wrong, I will jump back into stocks when the graphs tell me too. Many stocks are almost at the buy level, or they will hit the 40-day line and then tank downwards - time will tell.
I now hold ECA, MFC, PWF, LIF.un, and TRP.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Interesting Day - Even with markets pretty flat
Well, remember that I said I had a full-time job and only traded stocks on the side? Today, it showed. I didn't lose alot of money - the market was pretty flat actually, but a few of my stocks sold that I might not have normally sold.
When the moving average lines say to buy a stock (current price just above the moving average line), you must remember that they are also close to a sell as well (just below the line). Because I can't watch the stocks as closely as I would like, I often put in stop losses on the downside when stocks that I own are at a buy (since they are also close to a sell).
Today, the market took a downturn midday before bouncing back to almost even. Problem for me is that many of my stocks had their stops hit. I sold HXU, HEU, HFU, HJU, and HBU of my ETF's (all of them), as well as RIM and ECA. Also, the X that I found last night hit my stop buy, but it also hit my stop loss later in the day. It is the second time this false buy has happened to me with X, so I will stay away from it for awhile (I also have bad luck with RIM and THI, in this way).
The four stocks that did not sell - RUS, COS.UN, PWF, and TRP all closed up today, so I really can't complain. Since many market watchers are calling for a pull-back (even if it is a short-term correction), it is hard to know when it is a simple market fluctuation or the beginning of a downturn. With my strategy, I don't want to take the chance, since I want to limit my losses. Of the five ETF's that sold today, I was up on two, even on two, and down on one, so I can't complain.
Not surprisingly, some of the buys for tomorrow are actually stocks I sold today. Part of this strategy is that you get back on the horse and buy when it says to buy, so I will put in my stop buys tonight.
The buys for tomorrow are HEU, HMU (I won't buy this one, as the daily volume is too low for me), HXU, ECA, LIF.UN, MFC, PWF (already own it, and won't buy more yet), and RUS (own it already).
So, I will have stop-buys in for HEU, HXU, LIF.UN, and MFC tomorrow.
** I should also note that I only pay $7 commission per trade, so it allows me to move in and out of stocks inexpensively. If your commissions are higher than that, you will have to adjust your strategy accordingly, as they will represent a higher percentage of your investment.
When the moving average lines say to buy a stock (current price just above the moving average line), you must remember that they are also close to a sell as well (just below the line). Because I can't watch the stocks as closely as I would like, I often put in stop losses on the downside when stocks that I own are at a buy (since they are also close to a sell).
Today, the market took a downturn midday before bouncing back to almost even. Problem for me is that many of my stocks had their stops hit. I sold HXU, HEU, HFU, HJU, and HBU of my ETF's (all of them), as well as RIM and ECA. Also, the X that I found last night hit my stop buy, but it also hit my stop loss later in the day. It is the second time this false buy has happened to me with X, so I will stay away from it for awhile (I also have bad luck with RIM and THI, in this way).
The four stocks that did not sell - RUS, COS.UN, PWF, and TRP all closed up today, so I really can't complain. Since many market watchers are calling for a pull-back (even if it is a short-term correction), it is hard to know when it is a simple market fluctuation or the beginning of a downturn. With my strategy, I don't want to take the chance, since I want to limit my losses. Of the five ETF's that sold today, I was up on two, even on two, and down on one, so I can't complain.
Not surprisingly, some of the buys for tomorrow are actually stocks I sold today. Part of this strategy is that you get back on the horse and buy when it says to buy, so I will put in my stop buys tonight.
The buys for tomorrow are HEU, HMU (I won't buy this one, as the daily volume is too low for me), HXU, ECA, LIF.UN, MFC, PWF (already own it, and won't buy more yet), and RUS (own it already).
So, I will have stop-buys in for HEU, HXU, LIF.UN, and MFC tomorrow.
** I should also note that I only pay $7 commission per trade, so it allows me to move in and out of stocks inexpensively. If your commissions are higher than that, you will have to adjust your strategy accordingly, as they will represent a higher percentage of your investment.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Cash Position
As I trade in and out of stocks fairly regularly, my cash position fluctuates from week to week, or even day to day. Right now, I am 31% invested in stocks and the other 69% in cash, waiting for a good opportunity to buy. I looked into interest-bearing vehicles for short-term investments but none of them return enough money to be worth tying up my money. I like to be nimble - have the cash ready to put to work when the opportunity arises. [If anyone has any suggestions of a risk-free interest bearing short-term vehicle that pays at least 2% per annum, let me know]
While the markets have had a nice run, I do still expect a correction in September when the traders get back to work and the volume picks up. I don't really expect a huge correction but a 10% pullback would not be a surprise and it would actually be a good thing, to shake out the weak shareholders and prepare for the next move up.
For now, momentum is still upwards and I will ride it as long as I can. "The trend is your friend, until the end."
While the markets have had a nice run, I do still expect a correction in September when the traders get back to work and the volume picks up. I don't really expect a huge correction but a 10% pullback would not be a surprise and it would actually be a good thing, to shake out the weak shareholders and prepare for the next move up.
For now, momentum is still upwards and I will ride it as long as I can. "The trend is your friend, until the end."
Where things stand right now...
I am currently invested in a few of the Horizon Betapro ETF's (I use the double-leveraged ones):
TSX Index (HXU)
Canadian Financials (HFU)
Canadian Energy (HEU)
Emerging Markets (HJU)
Gold Bullion (HBU)
and a few stocks:
Russell Metals (RUS)
Encana (ECA)
Transcanada Pipeline (TRP)
Canadian Oilsands Trust (COS.UN)
Power Financial (PWF)
and Research in Motion (RIM)
I have purchased half positions in all of them when the current trading price moved upwards through (or bounced off of, on the high side) the 40-day moving average for that stock. All of them are currently up, at least a bit, with the exception of HBU, and it is only down a slightly.
If the stock moves down through the 40-day moving average, I will sell it to limit my losses. If it continues to climb, I will buy the other half of the position.
Each day, I look at the graphs to identify which positions I need to sell and which stocks I need to buy. I always buy using stop buys (to buy on upward momentum) and I always sell using stop losses. I have a full-time job so the stop buys and sells allow me to put my orders in the night before and have them automatically execute during the trading day.
The only new stock that I will look to buy tomorrow (Aug. 24) is the TSX Group (X). None of my current stocks need to be sold, at this point.
TSX Index (HXU)
Canadian Financials (HFU)
Canadian Energy (HEU)
Emerging Markets (HJU)
Gold Bullion (HBU)
and a few stocks:
Russell Metals (RUS)
Encana (ECA)
Transcanada Pipeline (TRP)
Canadian Oilsands Trust (COS.UN)
Power Financial (PWF)
and Research in Motion (RIM)
I have purchased half positions in all of them when the current trading price moved upwards through (or bounced off of, on the high side) the 40-day moving average for that stock. All of them are currently up, at least a bit, with the exception of HBU, and it is only down a slightly.
If the stock moves down through the 40-day moving average, I will sell it to limit my losses. If it continues to climb, I will buy the other half of the position.
Each day, I look at the graphs to identify which positions I need to sell and which stocks I need to buy. I always buy using stop buys (to buy on upward momentum) and I always sell using stop losses. I have a full-time job so the stop buys and sells allow me to put my orders in the night before and have them automatically execute during the trading day.
The only new stock that I will look to buy tomorrow (Aug. 24) is the TSX Group (X). None of my current stocks need to be sold, at this point.
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