For the most part, the market moved sideways this week, which is bad for me. I don't really care which direction it goes - I just want it to pick a direction and keep going that way (although up IS easier, and easier to stomach).
I ended the week owning the ETF's HOU (oil) and HBU (gold bullion) and the stocks TCM, MBT, LIF.un, ECA, TRP, and PWF. Two of these stocks - TCM and MBT are in 'don't buy' territory, but they both appear to have very good support at their current levels. MBT has hit $32 a few times and has not gone below (plus they are a regional telcom and a good takeover target for the big boys) and TCM just announced a big financing at $14, so it shouldn't drop much below its current level around $13 (and shouldn't really have dropped that far in the first place).
For Monday next week, I am looking at new buys RCI.b, TCW, HGU (gold stock ETF), and HEU (energy ETF). I will get into the ones that open strong on Monday. I am also keeping a close eye on LIF.un, TCM and MBT, as they are all below their 40-day moving averages ('don't hold' territory, for my trading rules).
I am about 21% in stocks right now (the rest in cash), since I am still expecting a pullback of 5 - 15% in the fall. As long as the indicators say to buy, though, I am comfortable adding to my portfolio with the stocks mentioned above. I don't want to miss a big upmove in the market, which could come right before the correction I am expecting.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Today's Action
As you have likely noticed, I have decided not to update my actions every day - it is just too boring, plus it pisses me off writing about a loss or a missed opportunity on the same day that it happened.
Today, I sold out of PN (a small online photo processing company) that I had a few shares of, as it has had a nice run lately. It will likely keep rising, but I don't like to get greedy.
I didn't sell any other stocks today, but I did pick up some Encana - great company, and natural gas is so low, it just HAS to go up sometime (doesn't it?).
One of the companies I follow - Thompson Creek Metals (TCM) - announced a financing yesterday (at $14 per share) and promptly dropped over $1 today, to $13.82. The share price is now just below the 40-day moving average, but it should find support there, since the financing was at $14. I will be looking to pick up some shares around the $14 level, when it passes upwards through the 40-day.
I may have to sell LIF.un tomorrow, if it goes down a bit more. Discipline is the key to my investing strategy, and also the key to limiting losses. Both HBU and X are buys for tomorrow as well, but they have both burned me in the past so I am a bit gunshy and will hold tight.
Something still tells me there will be a 5 - 10% correction in the next few weeks, but if I am wrong, I will jump back into stocks when the graphs tell me too. Many stocks are almost at the buy level, or they will hit the 40-day line and then tank downwards - time will tell.
I now hold ECA, MFC, PWF, LIF.un, and TRP.
Today, I sold out of PN (a small online photo processing company) that I had a few shares of, as it has had a nice run lately. It will likely keep rising, but I don't like to get greedy.
I didn't sell any other stocks today, but I did pick up some Encana - great company, and natural gas is so low, it just HAS to go up sometime (doesn't it?).
One of the companies I follow - Thompson Creek Metals (TCM) - announced a financing yesterday (at $14 per share) and promptly dropped over $1 today, to $13.82. The share price is now just below the 40-day moving average, but it should find support there, since the financing was at $14. I will be looking to pick up some shares around the $14 level, when it passes upwards through the 40-day.
I may have to sell LIF.un tomorrow, if it goes down a bit more. Discipline is the key to my investing strategy, and also the key to limiting losses. Both HBU and X are buys for tomorrow as well, but they have both burned me in the past so I am a bit gunshy and will hold tight.
Something still tells me there will be a 5 - 10% correction in the next few weeks, but if I am wrong, I will jump back into stocks when the graphs tell me too. Many stocks are almost at the buy level, or they will hit the 40-day line and then tank downwards - time will tell.
I now hold ECA, MFC, PWF, LIF.un, and TRP.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Interesting Day - Even with markets pretty flat
Well, remember that I said I had a full-time job and only traded stocks on the side? Today, it showed. I didn't lose alot of money - the market was pretty flat actually, but a few of my stocks sold that I might not have normally sold.
When the moving average lines say to buy a stock (current price just above the moving average line), you must remember that they are also close to a sell as well (just below the line). Because I can't watch the stocks as closely as I would like, I often put in stop losses on the downside when stocks that I own are at a buy (since they are also close to a sell).
Today, the market took a downturn midday before bouncing back to almost even. Problem for me is that many of my stocks had their stops hit. I sold HXU, HEU, HFU, HJU, and HBU of my ETF's (all of them), as well as RIM and ECA. Also, the X that I found last night hit my stop buy, but it also hit my stop loss later in the day. It is the second time this false buy has happened to me with X, so I will stay away from it for awhile (I also have bad luck with RIM and THI, in this way).
The four stocks that did not sell - RUS, COS.UN, PWF, and TRP all closed up today, so I really can't complain. Since many market watchers are calling for a pull-back (even if it is a short-term correction), it is hard to know when it is a simple market fluctuation or the beginning of a downturn. With my strategy, I don't want to take the chance, since I want to limit my losses. Of the five ETF's that sold today, I was up on two, even on two, and down on one, so I can't complain.
Not surprisingly, some of the buys for tomorrow are actually stocks I sold today. Part of this strategy is that you get back on the horse and buy when it says to buy, so I will put in my stop buys tonight.
The buys for tomorrow are HEU, HMU (I won't buy this one, as the daily volume is too low for me), HXU, ECA, LIF.UN, MFC, PWF (already own it, and won't buy more yet), and RUS (own it already).
So, I will have stop-buys in for HEU, HXU, LIF.UN, and MFC tomorrow.
** I should also note that I only pay $7 commission per trade, so it allows me to move in and out of stocks inexpensively. If your commissions are higher than that, you will have to adjust your strategy accordingly, as they will represent a higher percentage of your investment.
When the moving average lines say to buy a stock (current price just above the moving average line), you must remember that they are also close to a sell as well (just below the line). Because I can't watch the stocks as closely as I would like, I often put in stop losses on the downside when stocks that I own are at a buy (since they are also close to a sell).
Today, the market took a downturn midday before bouncing back to almost even. Problem for me is that many of my stocks had their stops hit. I sold HXU, HEU, HFU, HJU, and HBU of my ETF's (all of them), as well as RIM and ECA. Also, the X that I found last night hit my stop buy, but it also hit my stop loss later in the day. It is the second time this false buy has happened to me with X, so I will stay away from it for awhile (I also have bad luck with RIM and THI, in this way).
The four stocks that did not sell - RUS, COS.UN, PWF, and TRP all closed up today, so I really can't complain. Since many market watchers are calling for a pull-back (even if it is a short-term correction), it is hard to know when it is a simple market fluctuation or the beginning of a downturn. With my strategy, I don't want to take the chance, since I want to limit my losses. Of the five ETF's that sold today, I was up on two, even on two, and down on one, so I can't complain.
Not surprisingly, some of the buys for tomorrow are actually stocks I sold today. Part of this strategy is that you get back on the horse and buy when it says to buy, so I will put in my stop buys tonight.
The buys for tomorrow are HEU, HMU (I won't buy this one, as the daily volume is too low for me), HXU, ECA, LIF.UN, MFC, PWF (already own it, and won't buy more yet), and RUS (own it already).
So, I will have stop-buys in for HEU, HXU, LIF.UN, and MFC tomorrow.
** I should also note that I only pay $7 commission per trade, so it allows me to move in and out of stocks inexpensively. If your commissions are higher than that, you will have to adjust your strategy accordingly, as they will represent a higher percentage of your investment.
Sunday, August 23, 2009
Cash Position
As I trade in and out of stocks fairly regularly, my cash position fluctuates from week to week, or even day to day. Right now, I am 31% invested in stocks and the other 69% in cash, waiting for a good opportunity to buy. I looked into interest-bearing vehicles for short-term investments but none of them return enough money to be worth tying up my money. I like to be nimble - have the cash ready to put to work when the opportunity arises. [If anyone has any suggestions of a risk-free interest bearing short-term vehicle that pays at least 2% per annum, let me know]
While the markets have had a nice run, I do still expect a correction in September when the traders get back to work and the volume picks up. I don't really expect a huge correction but a 10% pullback would not be a surprise and it would actually be a good thing, to shake out the weak shareholders and prepare for the next move up.
For now, momentum is still upwards and I will ride it as long as I can. "The trend is your friend, until the end."
While the markets have had a nice run, I do still expect a correction in September when the traders get back to work and the volume picks up. I don't really expect a huge correction but a 10% pullback would not be a surprise and it would actually be a good thing, to shake out the weak shareholders and prepare for the next move up.
For now, momentum is still upwards and I will ride it as long as I can. "The trend is your friend, until the end."
Where things stand right now...
I am currently invested in a few of the Horizon Betapro ETF's (I use the double-leveraged ones):
TSX Index (HXU)
Canadian Financials (HFU)
Canadian Energy (HEU)
Emerging Markets (HJU)
Gold Bullion (HBU)
and a few stocks:
Russell Metals (RUS)
Encana (ECA)
Transcanada Pipeline (TRP)
Canadian Oilsands Trust (COS.UN)
Power Financial (PWF)
and Research in Motion (RIM)
I have purchased half positions in all of them when the current trading price moved upwards through (or bounced off of, on the high side) the 40-day moving average for that stock. All of them are currently up, at least a bit, with the exception of HBU, and it is only down a slightly.
If the stock moves down through the 40-day moving average, I will sell it to limit my losses. If it continues to climb, I will buy the other half of the position.
Each day, I look at the graphs to identify which positions I need to sell and which stocks I need to buy. I always buy using stop buys (to buy on upward momentum) and I always sell using stop losses. I have a full-time job so the stop buys and sells allow me to put my orders in the night before and have them automatically execute during the trading day.
The only new stock that I will look to buy tomorrow (Aug. 24) is the TSX Group (X). None of my current stocks need to be sold, at this point.
TSX Index (HXU)
Canadian Financials (HFU)
Canadian Energy (HEU)
Emerging Markets (HJU)
Gold Bullion (HBU)
and a few stocks:
Russell Metals (RUS)
Encana (ECA)
Transcanada Pipeline (TRP)
Canadian Oilsands Trust (COS.UN)
Power Financial (PWF)
and Research in Motion (RIM)
I have purchased half positions in all of them when the current trading price moved upwards through (or bounced off of, on the high side) the 40-day moving average for that stock. All of them are currently up, at least a bit, with the exception of HBU, and it is only down a slightly.
If the stock moves down through the 40-day moving average, I will sell it to limit my losses. If it continues to climb, I will buy the other half of the position.
Each day, I look at the graphs to identify which positions I need to sell and which stocks I need to buy. I always buy using stop buys (to buy on upward momentum) and I always sell using stop losses. I have a full-time job so the stop buys and sells allow me to put my orders in the night before and have them automatically execute during the trading day.
The only new stock that I will look to buy tomorrow (Aug. 24) is the TSX Group (X). None of my current stocks need to be sold, at this point.
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