I'm Out!

As you know from my earlier posts, I have been expecting a correction of some sort in October, and the 4.1% decline in the TSX this past week seems to be the beginning of that. Consumer confidence is down, and even though GDP is up in Canada and the US, that is likely the result of all the government stimulus and not any real improvement in the economy.

I had been gradually reducing my holdings all summer, and I actually sold the last of my stocks (MSI.UN, TRP, and YLO.un) on Thursday. Late Thursday, I actually bought HXD (TSX double down ETF) and HGD (Gold stocks double down ETF) and held them throughout most of Friday's big plunge (the moving average lines said to buy them, so I did, but I got nervous and sold them after making a bit of cash). I sold them before the end of the day, so I actually am 100% in cash right now.

I am not getting any interest at all in my accounts, so I admit that this investing strategy is not brilliant, but I am in capital preservation mode right now, so this helps me sleep at night. If none of the so-called experts knows where the market is heading right now, then how are small investors like me (us) supposed to make investing decisions?

I am still looking at safe ways to make a guaranteed return, and I may just open a high-interest savings account, to I don't tie up my money. High interest is a bit of a misnomer here, as I think I can only get .75% to 1.0% on my money right now, but I can access it any time and transfer it to my trading accounts if I decide to get back into the market on a large scale. This is only my non-RRSP money, and I will use my RRSP accounts first, when I decide to get back into securities (since the gains are tax-deferred).

There are some things I am looking to buy next week, but most of them are the 'down' ETF's. I use the Horizon Betapro 'double' ETF's. The ones that are a buy (or hold) for early next week are HED (energy), HFD (financials), HGD (gold stocks), HQD (Nasdaq), HSD (S&P in the US), and HXD (TSX). Remember, all of these ETF's go UP if there underlying areas go DOWN. I will warn you that if you are wrong on the down ETF's, it does give you a sick feeling when you lose money when the market is actually going UP.

Even with the TSX going down over 4% this past week, and other indices declining as well, it was a break-even week for me since I had the down ETF's.

Well, that is enough for today. Good luck next week, and let's hope the market finds some direction soon (up OR down, I don't care).

Weekly Update (and the ever-climbing market)

Well, another week has passed and the market correction hasn't happened yet. Earnings last week weren't spectacular but they weren't bad enough to bring the market down, as everyone seems to be waiting for.

Many stocks that I watch continue to move sideways but I continue to buy and sell as the graphs tell me to. I can't give up my method now, but I will admit it gets frustrating when you have to sell a stock a day or two after you buy it.

I am currently in a couple of ETF's - HBU (Gold bullion) and HFU (Financials), and many stocks - AGU (Agrium), FTT (Finning), MFC (Manulife), MSI.un (Morneau Sobeco), PDP (Prolifera), PWF (Power Financial), TCM (Thompson Creek Metals), and YLO.un (Yellow Pages).

I am 24.5% invested right now, with the balance in cash. I really hate getting no interest on the cash but I haven't found anything that is safe and worthwhile, at this point. If anyone has any suggestions that can get me at least a few percent interest and no, or very little downside, please let me know.

I am up 51.4% for the year so far, although I am down a bit in October. I have been positive every month since last November (there, I probably jinxed myself now), so I would like to continue that streak. The best I could likely hope for at this point is a nice little pullback - I would sell the securities I hold right now, then buy back in when the market resumes its upwards push. There is still lots of cash on the sidelines (including mine) waiting to get into this market, but I don't feel comfortable putting much more in at this point.

For Monday, I am looking to perhaps sell MFC, HFU, PWF, and TCM if they move downwards on Monday, as they are all right at the sell line right now. On the other hand, I am looking to pick up some THI (Tim Horton's), TRP (TransCanada Pipelines), and maybe some more PDP (Prolifera, to lower my average cost) on Monday, as they have all just cross upwards into buy territory.

Thus, the game continues...

Back to the Blog...

Sorry I haven't updated lately, but there is lots going on (outside of stocks). I have been buying and selling over the last few weeks, as the moving average lines have indicated that I do. I rode up Gold in the HGU (would have been better in the HBU), and I made some money on energy in the HEU.

Right now, I hold Manitoba Tel (MBT), BCE Inc (BCE), Finning Int's (FTT), Manulife (MFC), Prolifera (PDP), and Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.un). I have less YLO than I have in the past, as I sold into strength on its 15% run in September, and I have PDP as a speculative stock (although I am still following the lines and they said to buy). I try to stick with blue chip stocks but I still follow a couple of spec stocks from my past.

I may have to sell BCE and MBT on Tuesday, as they are in 'Sell' territory, although MBT is at its support level around $32. I will sell it if it drops much more. Also, FTT and MFC at at 'Buy' (I bought them late last week), which means they could quickly become 'Sells' if the market drops this week.

I am watching a few stocks and ETF's to buy on Tuesday - HFU (Financial 2X ETF), HOU (Oil 2X ETF), AGU (Agrium - fertilizer, etc.), HSE (Husky), MSI.un (Morneau Sobeco income fund). I will put in stop-buys on all of these securities today and pick them up tomorrow if their prices strengthen a bit. I like to buy stocks on upward momentum, not only in the graphs but also on the day I actually buy them.

YTD, I am up 51.4% for the year. I have been positive (by at least a little bit) every month since last November. I am a little bit negative so far in October, but it is early in the month. I am still chipping away at the loss I had on the first of the month. I am still expecting the market to pull back, sometime soon, as investors lock in some of their profits, but I will continue to follow the graphs until that happens. Earnings have been fairly strong lately, and a few US banks report this week so that will show us how the financials are doing.

I am just under 14% invested (in stocks and ETF's) right now, with the remainder in cash. I looked for money market funds and other 'safe' investments for my cash but the return is so low, I am just choosing to leave it in cash. This way, I lock in my gains from earlier in the year, I won't lose a significant amount in any correction, and I have lots of cash ready to buy stocks and ETF's on the next leg up.