Sorry I haven't written in a bit, but things are pretty busy for me these days. Also, the market has been less than exciting lately, with things going pretty much sideways for me for the last few weeks (as I expected). With my trading strategy, I need the market to pick a direction (up OR down) and stick with it, and that hasn't been the case lately.
YTD, I am up 2.9%, so I have slipped a little bit during the last few weeks, but still at my goal pace of 1% per month in gains (minimum, of course). The market will likely continue to trade sideways for a couple of more months and then correct over the summer as it normally does (last year being the recent exception, due the massive correction leading into the summer).
Right now, I hold COS.UN, X, ENF.UN, PMZ.UN, HSE, HED, MFC, and BIN. I never seem to make money on the oil stocks like COS.UN and HSE but I continue to buy them when the graphs tell me to. With oil trading in the $70 to $82 range for the last many months, I expect a bit of a pullback from where it is now, and the HED indicates that may just happen.
Next Monday I will look to buy Aecon (ARE) on an uptick, as the lines just crossed on the graph.
In an effort to avoid some of the false buys that I encounter with my method (the line crosses upwards, then turns around downward again), I am going to start waiting until the SECOND day that a stock is in buy territory. I will miss a little bit of the gain but if the stock continues to go up, I will still enjoy most of the gain. If the stock turns around on the second day, then I will not get in at all. Some users of this method wait until the unit price is 3% above the 40-day moving average, but watching for two consecutive days in buy territory is quicker and easier for me.
Have a good week everyone (if anyone is still reading this, that is).
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Friday, March 12, 2010
Friday Night Analysis
I know, I really should get a life - looking at stocks on a Friday night isn't exactly exciting. I plan on heading out soon.
I was down marginally for the week, and I am up just over 3% 2010 YTD. I currently own YLO.UN, PMZ.UN, BIN, HSE, X, HEU, HJU, L, and PN (yes, I should have sold it but I think it is at support so I haven't gotten rid of it yet - damn emotional decisions). The buys for Monday are BIN, X and HSE that I already own, plus ENF.UN, FTT, and TCM - all of which I like as stocks (although that doesn't matter when using moving averages to determine when to buy and sell). ENF.UN is the Enbridge Income Fund, FTT (Finning) is a heavy machinery (CAT) dealer, and TCM (Thomson Creek Minerals) is a molybdenum play (substance that is necessary to produce stainless steel).
The sells for Monday are HGU, ECA, and REI.UN - none of which I own right now.
Half-way through March, I am on track for my goal of a 1% per month return for 2010. The markets are trading pretty much sideways right now, but there are certainly positive pockets to invest in.
I was down marginally for the week, and I am up just over 3% 2010 YTD. I currently own YLO.UN, PMZ.UN, BIN, HSE, X, HEU, HJU, L, and PN (yes, I should have sold it but I think it is at support so I haven't gotten rid of it yet - damn emotional decisions). The buys for Monday are BIN, X and HSE that I already own, plus ENF.UN, FTT, and TCM - all of which I like as stocks (although that doesn't matter when using moving averages to determine when to buy and sell). ENF.UN is the Enbridge Income Fund, FTT (Finning) is a heavy machinery (CAT) dealer, and TCM (Thomson Creek Minerals) is a molybdenum play (substance that is necessary to produce stainless steel).
The sells for Monday are HGU, ECA, and REI.UN - none of which I own right now.
Half-way through March, I am on track for my goal of a 1% per month return for 2010. The markets are trading pretty much sideways right now, but there are certainly positive pockets to invest in.
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Week-end Analysis
It was a pretty good week last week, as I was up almost 1% overall. The economic data seemed to be decent so the markets did well, especially the US markets. Right now, I hold YLO.UN, HGU, HSU, HQU, ENF.UN, ECA, FTT, TCW, T, and PN. I am looking to sell ENF.UN on Monday if it goes down a bit and I am looking at selling PN (the only small-cap stock I follow).
Stocks and ETF's that indicate BUY on Monday include HEU, HJU, ECA, FTT, and MFC. I already own ECA and FTT but I will be putting in stop-buys on the other two. HEU is a bit risky as oil is trading at $80 which is at the top of its recent trading range, but the graphs say buy so I buy. There is still about another 1.00 of upside in HEU so I will buy it on upward momentum. I want to get back into international markets so I don't have problem buying HJU. MFC (Manulife) is not the best financial out there but it has been beaten down pretty well lately, so buying a bit now is okay with me (and I just follow the graphs anyway).
I am up about 1% so far in March and about 3.5% since January 1st. My returns are fluid - when you follow them every day and trade as often as I do - but I am happy with the results so far this year.
Stocks and ETF's that indicate BUY on Monday include HEU, HJU, ECA, FTT, and MFC. I already own ECA and FTT but I will be putting in stop-buys on the other two. HEU is a bit risky as oil is trading at $80 which is at the top of its recent trading range, but the graphs say buy so I buy. There is still about another 1.00 of upside in HEU so I will buy it on upward momentum. I want to get back into international markets so I don't have problem buying HJU. MFC (Manulife) is not the best financial out there but it has been beaten down pretty well lately, so buying a bit now is okay with me (and I just follow the graphs anyway).
I am up about 1% so far in March and about 3.5% since January 1st. My returns are fluid - when you follow them every day and trade as often as I do - but I am happy with the results so far this year.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
The Story for March 4th
Today was pretty much a sideways trading day, although gold and oil did take it on the chin today. Commodities will either come back and I will continue to hold HBU, HGU, G, and HOU or if they go down further they could cross the 40-day moving average and I would have to sell.
The buys for today are HQU, HSU, and ENF.UN that I already own, and TCW that I plan to put in a stop-buy for tonight. I hope to purchase TCW just above its close today of 14.74.
Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.UN) kept chugging along today (up 2.35% today), moving above $6 for the first time in many months. I purchased a bit more today but I see that there was a double-top back in March and May of 2009 in the 6.10 to 6.25 range, so YLO may seem some resistance in this range. If YLO drops back down below 6.00, I will likely sell the additional units that I just purchased today.
The buys for today are HQU, HSU, and ENF.UN that I already own, and TCW that I plan to put in a stop-buy for tonight. I hope to purchase TCW just above its close today of 14.74.
Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.UN) kept chugging along today (up 2.35% today), moving above $6 for the first time in many months. I purchased a bit more today but I see that there was a double-top back in March and May of 2009 in the 6.10 to 6.25 range, so YLO may seem some resistance in this range. If YLO drops back down below 6.00, I will likely sell the additional units that I just purchased today.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Buys for March 3rd
Using the daily price stock chart versus the 40-day moving average, many stocks are in BUY territory tonight. Most of them (HOU, HQU, HSU, ECA, FTT, G, and TRP) I already own, so I don't need to buy more at this point. I do have stop losses in on all of them, though, in case they turn around quickly and move into SELL territory. This is a tricky (and non-ideal) part of my trading strategy that leaves me to the up and down whims of the market, but my inability to watch the markets during the day necessitates this approach. When using stop losses (or stop buys, for that matter), make sure you also put in limits, so you don't buy or sell a stock at ANY price (only within the range that you intend).
There is one new one - HGU (Gold stock ETF) - that I will put in a stop buy tonight to try and buy tomorrow. The price of gold had a great gain today - nice since I bought HBU (the gold bullion ETF) yesterday - and gold stocks are starting to catch up. There is no telling if they will continue to rise or not, but the graphs say to buy, so I will try to buy it.
For February, I ended up about +2.5% for the month. In the last 16 months (from Nov '08 to now), I am up 14 of the months, I am even for 1 and I am down 0.75% for the other. As I have said before, my goal is not only to make money but it is also to not lose money. On a monthly basis, I have had a pretty successful run - I hope it continues.
There is one new one - HGU (Gold stock ETF) - that I will put in a stop buy tonight to try and buy tomorrow. The price of gold had a great gain today - nice since I bought HBU (the gold bullion ETF) yesterday - and gold stocks are starting to catch up. There is no telling if they will continue to rise or not, but the graphs say to buy, so I will try to buy it.
For February, I ended up about +2.5% for the month. In the last 16 months (from Nov '08 to now), I am up 14 of the months, I am even for 1 and I am down 0.75% for the other. As I have said before, my goal is not only to make money but it is also to not lose money. On a monthly basis, I have had a pretty successful run - I hope it continues.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Trying to Explain Things With a Graph
Sorry the graph is so small, but it is the best I could do (if you click on the graph, it should enlarge it so you can read it more easily). At left, you can see a graph that I printed out from my online trading site. It shows the last 12 months for Westjet (WJA) and compares the daily price to the 40-day moving average (MA). On the graph, I have marked each time the lines cross - a buy signal when the daily price goes UP through the 40 MA line and a sell signal when the daily price goes DOWN through the 40-day MA line.
In this example, 5 buy signals, 4 of which are followed by sell signals and the last of which was the last signal (meaning you should still own WJA now, if you use my method). For the five buys, the gains were +.35, +.10, +.80, -.05 (false buy signal), and +2.80 (and still holding). The total gain over the year for these five trades stands at about $4.00 per share. If you had bought and held WJA for the whole year, your gain would have been approximately $2.00 per share.
By holding WJA stock when it is going up and not holding it when it is going down, you could have doubled your return with this stock during the course of the year. The cost to you would have been following the stock on a regular basis and, of course, doing the 9 trades indicated (5 buys and 4 sells).
If you follow 50 securities like I do, and they all trade similarly to this (each one has its own pattern), then you are looking at 450 transactions per year. If you look at approximately 250 trading days per year, this works out to less than 2 transactions per day, so it is not that much work. There are many days when you don't buy or sell any stocks at all.
Again, sorry about the image quality but I hope this second explanation helps.
Responses to Reader's Comments
I have already responded to some comments from some new followers of my blog but I noticed more comments today so I wanted to address them:
NorthernCountess - I am happy to hear that you can relate to the challenges that working full time presents to managing your own investments. That said, I am also glad to hear that you did great last year, and if anything I talked about can help you then that is great. You are most welcome for the help - I am very happy to hear that my comments and approach are given retail investors something to think about and perhaps even helping other people make some money.
Dan - Since I follow the graphs, I buy and sell stocks pretty much when I am told. I am not a long-term or short-term investor by nature - I stay in stocks as long as they are going up and I get out of them when they are going down. I know that sounds simple, but that is my goal. Like me, it seems that you are trying to buy stocks on upwards momentum (an up-trend), then selling them before they drop back down too much. I think the best advice I can give you (from my trial and error) is to lock in gains when you have them (I use stop losses) and don't get frustrated if a stock sells but goes back up again if you made money on your trade. With my method, I never buy right at the bottom and I never sell right at the top, but I do win with more trades than I lose, and my winners are typically (but not always) bigger than my losers.
Norm - Thanks for the kind words, Norm, and for checking out my blog. Your note is exactly what I hoped I would see - that an investor who is developing their own strategy for what works best for them will consider what I am doing (and consider many other methods as well).
NorthernCountess - I am happy to hear that you can relate to the challenges that working full time presents to managing your own investments. That said, I am also glad to hear that you did great last year, and if anything I talked about can help you then that is great. You are most welcome for the help - I am very happy to hear that my comments and approach are given retail investors something to think about and perhaps even helping other people make some money.
Dan - Since I follow the graphs, I buy and sell stocks pretty much when I am told. I am not a long-term or short-term investor by nature - I stay in stocks as long as they are going up and I get out of them when they are going down. I know that sounds simple, but that is my goal. Like me, it seems that you are trying to buy stocks on upwards momentum (an up-trend), then selling them before they drop back down too much. I think the best advice I can give you (from my trial and error) is to lock in gains when you have them (I use stop losses) and don't get frustrated if a stock sells but goes back up again if you made money on your trade. With my method, I never buy right at the bottom and I never sell right at the top, but I do win with more trades than I lose, and my winners are typically (but not always) bigger than my losers.
Norm - Thanks for the kind words, Norm, and for checking out my blog. Your note is exactly what I hoped I would see - that an investor who is developing their own strategy for what works best for them will consider what I am doing (and consider many other methods as well).
A Few More Stocks Are In Buy Territory Tonight
I bought HBU and HOU today, and a few more of the stocks I follow went into buy territory today. The stocks I will be putting in stop-buys for tonight are HQU (Nasdaq ETF), HSU (S&P ETF), ECA (Encana), G (Goldcorp), and LIF.UN (Iron Ore Income Fund). HBU, FTT and TRP are also in 'buy' territory for me but I already own those securities and I don't need to buy more at this point.
Today was a pretty flat day overall, and I am about 25% invested at this point, with the remainder in cash, waiting for more buy signals to deploy the money.
Today was a pretty flat day overall, and I am about 25% invested at this point, with the remainder in cash, waiting for more buy signals to deploy the money.
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