Not in Yellow Pages, and Not Liking It...

As you know, I had jumped back into Yellow Pages - I made some quick money then got stopped out as the price settled back for a couple of days. It looked like I might be able to buy it back at lower prices until Friday, when it jumped again. If Yellow Pages passes through $7, I will likely buy back in with a plan to ride it to $8 and beyond.

Now, for what I actually DO own right now. I own BCE, HGU (gold stock bull ETF), ENF.un (Enbridge), L (Loblaw), SNC, REI.un (RioCan), RCI.b (Rogers), THI (Tim Horton's), and TRP (TransCanada Pipelines). I am about 26% invested in securities right now, with the rest in cash. I expect a pullback soon (likely 8 - 12%) and then probably a slow summer (as per normal), so I am a bit worried about getting too heavily invested. I actually don't mind a pullback, especially if it is a prolonged downturn, since I will simply move to the 'Down' ETF's, that rise in price when their underlying market or sector drops in price.

Also, since I follow the graphs, I have to wait until they tell me to buy a stock before I proceed. Many of the stocks I follow are in 'Hold' territory but I don't own them, mostly since I got stopped out on them while protecting gains. It makes it hard to buy back into these securities when they continue to go up later.

As for buys that are coming up on Monday, there are a few that I already own such as BCE, SNC, and TRP - I only recently bought them and they are still buys now, being just above the 40-day moving average. If they turn back negative and go back below the line, I have to be ready to unload them.

There are other buys as well, such as HOU (oil stock bull ETF), BTE.un (my favourite oil and gas trust), and G (Goldcorp). I will be putting in stop-buys for BTE.un and G but I don't want to buy HOU at this time as oil prices are already at a long-time high (and I DO consider other factors sometimes when buying stocks, not just the moving averages). I will be buying BTE.un, however, so I will have some exposure to oil prices anyway (and I also own Enbridge and TransCanada, which are in sectors that are related to oil).

I have been watching natural gas lately, and it is due for a price rebound, especially if there is a warm summer in the US and Canada. The shale gas plays, along with LNG from outside North America, has been driving down natural gas prices to ridiculously low levels, but I don't want to jump in too soon and get burned on a further drop. I plan to play natural gas through HNU (natural gas ETF), and it is in 'Buy Soon' territory, so a couple of up days in natural gas and I would have to jump in. Timing on this is very important since natural gas prices are so volatile, so I have to be ready to jump back out again at any time.

I was up for the fourth straight week this week, and I am now at 4.2% year-to-date, so I am on pace for my goal of a 1% gain per month for the year. Certainly not as exciting as the 50% gain that I achieved last year, but certainly more realistic given normal market conditions. I hope to make some gains in the next few weeks before the expected summer slow down after May ends.

If anyone is still reading my posts and has any questions about a stock they follow or has some feedback as to how they have used any of my method in their own investing, I would love to hear it so drop me a line.

Mid-April Update

I am glad I got back into YLO in the mid to low 6.30's, as it recovered to end the week over 6.40 and I think it will go much higher (I am predicting at least $9 before the end of 2010, but time will tell on that one).

Currently, I am also in just a few stocks - YLO.un, ENF.un (Enbridge Income Fund), G (Goldcorp), SNC (SNC Lavalin), L (Loblaw), and BIN (BFI Canada). I will probably have to lighten the load on Monday, though, as both G and SNC at at sell levels and L may be there in another day or two. Stock markets have done well lately, in general, but some bad news late last week may turn them negatively for a while. In any case, I just continue to follow the graphs.

I am up 3.7% year-to-date, so I am still on track for my target of a 1% gain per month (minimum) for the year. I expect the summer months to be slow, as they typically are, so I need to get some gains in April and May to set myself up for the rest of the year.

Back Into the Yellow Pages Again

As I have written, I don't strictly follow the buy / sell lines, as I do set stop losses to protect gains once a stock I own has gone up. Due to this, I was stopped out of Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.un) - a trust that I didn't really want to sell due to its turnaround, good momentum, and great yield. Well, I got back into some YLO last week, just ahead of the big jump on Friday. I had noticed that it seemed to have a double or triple top at 6.25 to 6.30, meaning that it hadn't been able to get through that level on earlier attempts. Once I saw that YLO had cleared the 6.35 level, I bought a few thousand shares. I think that the unit price will continue to climb (or stay steady at least), and the monthly yield is still over 12%.

Currnently, I also own BCE, BIN, G, MFC, and ENF.un - all good companies and leaders in their respective fields. There aren't any more that I am looking to buy on Monday, although I may add more YLO if it clears 6.70 or so.

The markets look a little lofty right now, but I see that the Greece bailout deal was agreed to this weekend so the markets should respond favourable to that. I still think there will be a correction coming soon (the markets, especially in the US have had a good month-long run with no really good reason), so I am reluctant to get too deeply invested. I think that investors are getting lulled into thinking that things are good when they really aren't all that good. Sure, things are better than they were last year, but last year was one of the worst years ever, so that was not a very high bar to beat. Relatively better is not necessarily good enough - things need to actually BE better, and employment and other ecomonic news is not great yet.

YTD, I am up 3.4% so I am back on pace for my 1% per month target for the year. I expect things to slow down between May and September as it usually does so I will need to make some good gains in the next month and a half or so to maintain my pace.

Starting off Q2 with a Bang

April 1st was a good day for my stocks, which is good to see after the sideways motion I have seen in my stocks since mid-February. I am now up about 3.1% year-to-date, so I am not doing as well as I would have liked to this point but at least I am well ahead of GIC's / bank interest at this point.

I currently own PN (in buy territory right now, but very thin trader), RCI.b, PMZ.un, MFC, SLW, ENF.un, COS.un, TCM, and HSE. COS and HSE have had a good run the last few days, so it is good to see them making up for some lost time.

PMZ and RCI are in sell territory right now, so I will have my stop losses kicked in if they drop much more on Monday. On the buy side, I have HBU and HGU (gold bullion and gold stocks, respectively), BCE, PN (already own), and S. I am looking to pick up HGU, BCE, and S on Monday, on an uptick.

The market has been generally up for the last month and a half or so, but my stocks have been pretty flat. I am only winning on 4/7 trades so far this year, well below last year's 7/10 when the market picked a direction and stuck with it. I don't even mind if the markets go down really, I just want the markets to pick a direction and to go in that direction for a sustained period of time.

That's it for another week. MJ