As I typically do, I had been lightening up on stocks heading into April, as stocks tend to not do well in the April to June time frame (at least, if not the whole summer). For the last little while, I have only been 40-45% invested in stocks, with the rest in cash or t-bills. My main goal at this time is preservation of capital but I also want to have cash on-hand to buy back into stocks when they are cheaper (at some point). Since I trade on momentum, using moving averages, once stocks pick a direction (up or down), I want them to keep going in that direction for at least a few months.
That said, I HAVE some securities in my portfolio right now - mainly ETF's. I am in one UP ETF - for natural gas (HNU) and it has done very well since I purchased it in early March at 12.29 (even with the drop today, it is well over 16.00).
I am mainly in the DOWN ETF's - those that go up in value as the underlying security or commodity goes down. I am currently in the down ETF's for Canadian financials (HFD), the TSX (HXD), oil (HOD) and just today I bought some of the down US S&P (HSD) in anticipation of a correction in US markets. The HSD purchase was made more on sentiment and seasonality than on the moving averages, since HSD is approaching a buy signal but has not reached it yet.
I am also in LW, a retirement home REIT that has a good payout and seems to do well when the markets are in turmoil (presumably because people are looking for yield). I also bought some DEE today - a stock that I had made money on recently and that I bought back at a lower price (1.19) than I last sold it at (1.31) and it actually closed higher today, at 1.24.
I am in no hurry to put any more of my money into action but I may buy more of the down ETF's if this trend continues. For now, I am happy to not only have huge losses as the market corrects, but I actually MAKE some money.
Monday, April 15, 2013
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
First post in a while...
Sorry that I have been neglecting this blog for the last many months (not that there is anyone reading it anyway), but I thought I would update it today since a friend asked me about it.
The markets, in general, have been doing very well so far this year. I am up 4% overall so far this year (in a little over a month), so I am happy with that. Although I follow the moving averages, for the most part, to decide when to buy and sell, when the markets start to hit new highs, I cut back my levels in stocks. For that reason, I am only 20% invested in stocks right now, as I expect a pullback of 5 to 10% to come in the next couple of months. Company earnings have been mixed this quarter, and the market just seems to be overbought.
I have recently moved from using the 40-day moving average to the 50-day MA - it smooths things out a bit and it is a more common time period to use. The stock graphs seem to indicate that many of the stocks I follow adhere better to the 50-day MA as an indicator than they do the 40-day MA.
I do own a few stocks right now - Suncor, MEG Energy, Iron Ore Income Fund, Thompson Creek, and Imperial Oil. I bought Blackberry a couple of days ago when it bounced off the 50-day MA but I sold it yesterday after gains of 12% and 6% in two consecutive days (very volatile stock, so better to take gains when you get them, as it can easily go right back down).
As the markets are high right now, many stocks that I follow are already in 'Buy' territory, so I won't get an indicator to purchase them unless they go down and bounce off their 50-day MA (like BB did two days ago). I AM looking to purchase Silver Wheaton (SLW) and Major Drilling (MDI) today, if they go up through my stop buys (I still buy all stocks on stop buys, to ensure that they have at least a bit of momentum.
Commodities (mostly metals) haven't done too well lately, so many of them are in 'don't hold' territory right now, so if they strengthen they could give 'Buy' signals quite easily. One example of this is SLW right now.
I will try to be better at updating this blog every week or so, with what stocks I am holding at that time, what percent of my money is invested in stocks, and how my YTD return is doing.
The markets, in general, have been doing very well so far this year. I am up 4% overall so far this year (in a little over a month), so I am happy with that. Although I follow the moving averages, for the most part, to decide when to buy and sell, when the markets start to hit new highs, I cut back my levels in stocks. For that reason, I am only 20% invested in stocks right now, as I expect a pullback of 5 to 10% to come in the next couple of months. Company earnings have been mixed this quarter, and the market just seems to be overbought.
I have recently moved from using the 40-day moving average to the 50-day MA - it smooths things out a bit and it is a more common time period to use. The stock graphs seem to indicate that many of the stocks I follow adhere better to the 50-day MA as an indicator than they do the 40-day MA.
I do own a few stocks right now - Suncor, MEG Energy, Iron Ore Income Fund, Thompson Creek, and Imperial Oil. I bought Blackberry a couple of days ago when it bounced off the 50-day MA but I sold it yesterday after gains of 12% and 6% in two consecutive days (very volatile stock, so better to take gains when you get them, as it can easily go right back down).
As the markets are high right now, many stocks that I follow are already in 'Buy' territory, so I won't get an indicator to purchase them unless they go down and bounce off their 50-day MA (like BB did two days ago). I AM looking to purchase Silver Wheaton (SLW) and Major Drilling (MDI) today, if they go up through my stop buys (I still buy all stocks on stop buys, to ensure that they have at least a bit of momentum.
Commodities (mostly metals) haven't done too well lately, so many of them are in 'don't hold' territory right now, so if they strengthen they could give 'Buy' signals quite easily. One example of this is SLW right now.
I will try to be better at updating this blog every week or so, with what stocks I am holding at that time, what percent of my money is invested in stocks, and how my YTD return is doing.
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