Down 0.9% this week, on market fluctuations due to the Ukraine and China data

I was down 0.9% last week, as my holdings did pretty well, and my loss was due to a bad bet on the price of natural gas.  I bought HNU just above the 50-day moving average betting that it would bounce off it but it went down through it.  As per my rules, I sold the HNU once I saw that it was below the 50-day MA.


My YTD return is 10.16%, compared to 4.4% for the TSX 60, so I am still doing well for the year.  I am currently 67.6% invested right now, with the rest in cash, waiting to deploy.  My holdings include precious metals (HBU, HZU, and MTO), other resources (TBE, TLM), and EMA, BA, XSR, and ZEB. 


MTO (that I have written about in previous posts) had an especially good week, as they announced that they had expanded their main resource at their Bachelor mine, by perhaps as much as 33%.  We are still waiting for MTO to announce the drill results at their Barry mine, which could push the share price up further.


Both TLM and XSR are below their 50-day MA's but near levels of support, so I still hold them but I will sell them quickly if they drop much more.  BA and TBE are both right at their 50-day MA's, so I may have to sell them soon as well if they drop.


There are many new buys as of Friday, including HOU, HVU, ERF, PDN (that I sold recently), QBR.B, RUS, and SPM.  I am also looking at HGU, which has been doing well lately but it still well below recent highs.


For Monday, I want to see how the Russia / Ukraine referendum issue is working out before I decide to deploy more money or sell some securities.  Of the buys, I am most likely to purchase HGU, HOU, HVU, ERF, and QBR.B.


I am still doing pretty well for this year but the Ukraine uncertainty and the fact that the US markets might be overbought both point to a possible correction in the next few months.  That said, March and April are often the last couple of months to make money before the "Sell in May and go away" axiom kicks in.

Up about 1% this week...

I am up about 1% this week, to a total YTD return of 11.07%, compared to the YTD return of the TSX of 5%, so I am still doing well.  I was up higher during the week but closed the week with a down day on Friday.


I am currently 77% invested in stocks and ETF's, with the rest in cash.  I am currently into precious metals - HBU, HZU, and MTO, and some energy - TBE and TLM.  I am also in EMA, XSR, BA, HFU, and TCM.  All of these are above the 50-day moving average line except for XSR and TLM.


For XSR and TLM, it looked to me that they were hitting a multiple-bottom, which generally shows support for the stock price.  I saw the XSR support around 8.30 so I purchased it at 8.50 recently and it closed Friday at 8.99 (right at the 50-day MA).  TLM's support looks to be around 11.00 so it if drops much from here I will simply dump it.


There are many stocks that I follow that are just newly above the 50-day MA line that I am looking to purchase on Monday - DWI, MFC, PGF, QBR.B, RUS, SNC, SU, TCW, and TGL.  Many of these stocks are great blue chip Canadian companies, but I am not sure which ones (if any) that I will purchase on Monday.  Having so many stocks with buy signals Monday is exactly the reason why I always try to have some cash ready to invest.


As March goes on, precious metals typically weaken so I have stop losses in on those securities - the exception to this could be if there are external forces (like Ukraine) that affect gold.  The gain that gold got this past Thursday was given back on Friday, so it is pretty volatile.


I still think that there is a correction coming, since valuations are getting very high, especially in the US.  That said, I don't invest on speculation and I follow the 50-day MA line.


I am doing well so far this year, so I will continue to follow my rules.

A choppy week, but up 1.5% for the week

The markets did pretty well this week but gold took a bit of a hit, so my results were up and down for the week but ended up about 1.5% for the week.  I am up 10.1% YTD - compared to the TSX index which is up 4.3% YTD - so I am still doing pretty well this year.


Right now, I am 82% invested in stocks and ETF's, with the rest in cash.  I hold precious metals (HBU, HZU, BTO, MTO, and YRI), base metals (TKO), financials (HFU), energy (LTS, PD, TBE) and a couple of dividend stallwarts (BA and EMA).  I had two uranium stocks - CCO and PDN - but they jumped quickly this week so I sold them.  I will keep an eye on them, with the goal of buying them back at lower prices.


MTO put out good news yesterday (they halted to do it), publishing their first production costs for their gold since going into commercial production (and it was a great number, under $US 800 / oz), so MTO had a nice strong close and will hopefully get lots of attention at the PDAC conference next week in Toronto (takeovers of gold mining companies should really pick up this year, especially the ones with production already, low cash costs, and expanding resources).


I am looking at a few securities for Monday, that are now showing buy signals - HNU (natural gas ETF), IVN (mining), and some others of lesser interest since they are already trading near their highs (ARE, HSE, MFC, RUS, and THI).  I am also still keeping an eye on WIN, as it has been steady for a long time, and it is right near the buy signal (but not there yet).


I am also watching XSR even though it is not near its buy signal, since it looks to be forming a quadruple bottom (a sign of good support).  If it moves up a bit from here, I will likely pick up a few shares for a trade (then buy more when / if it moves up an crosses the 50-day moving average line).


My system is working for me so far this year (and I would be up even more - another 3% or so - if I didn't fall back into some bad habits, that I am trying to avoid).

An up and down (but even) week...

This was a pretty up and down week, with a big down day for me on Wednesday and the other three days being up to even things out.  I closed the week with a YTD overall return of 8.64%, as compared with the YTD return of the TSX of 4.3%, so I am still doing pretty well.  I managed to avoid my bad habits this past week, largely because I am so fully invested and have no funds available to day trade.


At this point, I am 88% invested in securities, with the remainder in cash, ready to deploy.




I still have lots of precious metals holdings - HBU, HZU, BTO, MTO, and YRI - and I still have a few in the energy space - LTS, PD, and TBE.  I have some other miners - CCO, PDN, and TKO - and a utility (EMA) and a financial (HFU).  I also still have a small amount of DWI.  This past week, I added to my positions in MTO and HZU.




Some sell indicators at the close on Friday are on PDN and DWI, so I will look at unloading these on Monday (with stop losses, of course).




There aren't any new buys as of the close on Friday (HFU, CCO, and TBE are all buys but I already own them), so I won't be looking to pick up any new stocks right away on Monday.  That said, BB looks interesting at 10.17, so I may dip my toe in there a bit.




I am also keeping an eye on natural gas since it has risen to much lately, and may look to get into HND, to profit if the natural gas price settles back a bit.




Most of my holdings are solidly in hold territory, so there isn't much to do right away on Monday, so I will mostly sit tight.

A Good Week to Own Resource Stocks...

This past week was a lot better than last week - this week my portfolio was up 5%, whereas last week it was down 2.3% (mostly due to bad habits that I mentioned in my last post).  This week, I stuck to the plan and followed the moving averages and gold and silver had a great week so that helps as well.


I still own a lot of precious metals securities - HBU (gold bullion ETF), HZU (silver ETF), BTO (junior gold producer), MTO (junior gold producer), and YRI (mid-tier gold producer).  I also have other mining stocks such as CCO (uranium), PDN (uranium), TCM (mostly moly), and TKO (copper).




I have a couple of energy related stocks - LTS and PD, a technology stock (DWI), and a utility (EMA) to round out my portfolio.  As of today, I am 82% invested overall (with the rest in cash, waiting to deploy).




The markets are a little uncertain right now, as the minor correction was shorter (about 6%) than most had expected, so I am not sure if being more heavily invested right now is a good idea.  That said, I follow the graphs and do what they tell me, and don't pay too much attention to macro-economic news.




For this Tues, new buy signals are from HFU (financials ETF), GLN (telecom), SU (energy), TBE (energy), and WIN (technology).  I am most likely to purchase TBE and WIN on Monday (I also think both are takeover targets, especially WIN).  I am also looking at HNU (natural gas ETF), as it looks like it has room to move upwards and it isn't far from the 50-day moving average line.


Year-to-date, my portfolio return is now 8.71%, compared to the TSX YTD return of 3.2%, so I am still well ahead of the benchmark that I am comparing against.  Had I not fallen back into bad habits (as I described in my last post), I would be well over 10% YTD right now, so I have to try to resist that temptation and stick with my strategy that is working (at least for now).  I still expect a 10%+ correction in the next 3 to 5 months, but even if this DOES happen, gold bullion, silver, and even gold stocks should perform pretty well (or at least not as bad as the overall market).


In any case, I will continue to follow the moving averages and do what they say.

February Starts as January Ends

Well, another tough week for my investments this week.  Ahead of Monday's big drop, I was not only mostly out of equities but I was also in some of the 'negative' ETF's, as they had signaled a buy.  This looked great on Monday but then the market came back for the rest of the week, more than making up for Monday's losses (my gains).  The markets seem very uncertain right now so I am not sure why they aren't still correcting, but that is the nonsensical part of investing in the markets.  When using moving averages, I want the markets to pick a direction (up or down, I don't care) and keep going in that direction for awhile.  When the markets have swings from positive to negative, that is what creates a lot of false buys and sells and causes problems for my method.


YTD, my return is still positive, at 3.8%.  This still compares well with the TSX YTD return, which stands at 1.2% for 2014.  My goal is to stay ahead of this index, but weeks like this past one won't help me.


At this point, I am 69% invested in equities.  I do have a sell signal on one of my ETF's - HQU - so if it continues to go down on Monday (ie. the Nasdaq goes up), then I will sell it.  A similar ETF - HSD - is also close to a sell signal.


A few of the securities I hold are at buy signals right now (I will hold, but won't buy more at this point) - HBU, DWI, and PDN.  The signal is bullish but I already bought these at similar levels so I won't buy more of them at this time.


My portfolio also includes gold miners BTO and MTO, commodity miners PDN, TKO and LIM, energy stocks LTS and PD, and utility EMA.


There are a few securities that closed with a buy signal on Friday that I will take a look at on Monday, including HEU, HQU (the opposite of the HQD I hold), HZU (silver ETF that really interests me), XVX, CCO, MEG, T, TBE, and WIN.


I get into some bad habits sometimes (trying to day-trade), which I did this week and it cost me.  It looks like easy money but it is really hard trying to decide when to get in and out, so I need to stick to my strategy that worked for the early part of this year.  Up and down markets may be in the cards, though, for the next few months, and this makes it very hard for my strategy.

January Ends With a Whimper (for my portfolio, at least)

Well, after having a total return of 10.5% on January 20, the last two weeks of January weren't as kind to me and I ended the month with a total return of 6.1% YTD.  That is actually a very good return for one month, especially when the TSX Composite had a return of only .5% during that same period.  This is the index that I compare my performance to, as I primarily buy Canadian securities and it is my 'home' exchange.


Despite the recent weakness in the gold price (perhaps due to the Chinese being off work for a week for their New Year?), I am still pretty heavily invested in gold ETF's and stocks - HBU, HGU, ZJG, MTO, and K.  I am also in some other metals miners - TKO, LIM, and PDN.


Also, the US markets are at an inflection point - the S&P is indicating sell and the Nasdaq just indicated buy - so you have to carefully pick your horses here.  I bought the HSD (betting on the S&P going down), but I will be ready to sell it again if the markets don't, in fact, go down.


Rounding out my portfolio right now are EMA, DWI, LW, and MBT.  Currently, I am 72% invested with the remainder in cash.  I don't own any bonds right now but I have in the past so I may take a look at them. 


The markets are a little uncertain right now so I am not sure if I want to more fully invested or not, but I do follow the moving averages so I usually do what they tell me.  For Monday, some securities that have just indicated buy signals are HED, HVU, XVX, COS, LTS, PD and TCW (both drillers), and TBE.  I will likely buy HED and HVU, betting on a market correction in the US (at least a moderate one), but I won't know for sure until Monday.


I have to be happy with my return YTD when compared to the markets - my goal remains to preserve capital and try to grow my holdings.

It was a good week until Friday...

After a good gain on Monday and up and down days on Tuesday through Thursday, the week looked okay.  That was until the massive sell-off on Friday.  Not many of the securities that I held went below the 50-day moving averages but some of them did sell on Friday after I had set stop-losses under them to protect the gains I have already made.  After having a great January in 2013 and then losing it all in the following months, I am trying to do better at conserving gains once they are made.


At the end of this week, I am still 71% invested and the rest is in cash, ready to deploy.  I was down .67% for the week overall, while the Dow, by comparison, was down 3.5% for the week.  If the market continues to slide, I will, no doubt, sell more things as they hit their sell signals, and I can always buy them back later when the buy signals come back.


One thing about using moving averages is that you want the market to pick a direction and keep moving in that direction for a while.  That way, the averages have time to catch up and new buy or sell signals can be set up.  If the corrections are too short-lived, the buy and sell signals come quickly after one another, and it is a bit frustrating.  While I am not  exactly trying to 'time the market', I also don't want to sit in securities while they plummet - it can take months or years for them to come back, if ever.


I still hold many precious metals securities - HBU (gold bullion), HGU (gold stocks), ZJG (gold small cap stocks), YRI, K, and MTO.  I also own other miners like TKO (copper), PDN (uranium), S (various), FM, and LIM (iron ore).


My holdings are rounded out by DWI (sold some at higher levels, then bought it back after it dropped), EMA, LTS, LW, and MBT.


For Monday, there are a few securities that are at buy signals that I am looking at, depending on how the market looks - HBU (considering buying more, because even if the price of gold moves up, gold stocks could easily get caught in the downdraft), HOU (oil is looking stronger), HSD (down goes the DOW), XVX (has the TSX-V exchange bottomed?), and TLM (takeover rumours, but stock is near its recent highs).


With the way last week ended, I am a little skittish about putting more money into the market BUT buying when everyone else is selling is a great way to get the securities at lower prices.  You know the old adage - "Stocks are the only thing that people don't want to buy when they are on sale".  It is hard to go against this, but following the moving averages does help to take much of the emotion out of investing, which is one of the keys to good profits.


For 2014, I am up 8.28% YTD, so I am still pretty happy with that.

A Great Week for My Stocks :)

For the 5 trading days this week, I am up about 7.1% overall - an exceptional return for one week (many would be satisfied with this return for a whole year).  The challenge is to pare back holdings of good performing stocks and selling some of them into strength to lock in gains.  Right now, I am over 95% invested in securities (more than I would like, but I follow what the graphs tell me), and it worked out well last week.  I ended last week 78% invested in securities (by securities, I mean stocks and ETF's).


As I mentioned on Monday, this week began with the Goldcorp offer for OSK, and I sold my shares into the offer at the end of day.  I said at the time that I thought the offer would be improved but wanted to deploy the money elsewhere - OSK is a bit higher now than where I sold it at 6.25 but not much.


Another gold stock I hold - AUQ - actually went up MORE since its January 9th close than OSK has (33% vs. 31%) and that is WITHOUT a takeover offer for AUQ.  Due to this rapid increase, I sold half of my position yesterday and half of the remaining shares again today.  I kept some OSK in case it keeps going up, but I wanted to lock in gains.


Note: While I do use the 50-day moving average (MA) line to decide when to buy stocks (and usually when to sell them), if they exceed my target price (especially if done rapidly, on no news), then I have no problem locking in gains.  I didn't sell them outright - I put in tight stop losses on them - but they sold on dips.


Right now, gold securities are doing well, and I bought the ones I did because their price passed upwards through their 50-day MA.  I still hold HGU (gold stock ETF), ZJG (small cap gold stocks ETF), YRI (large producer), and smaller producers SAS and MTO.  The last two are the most speculative but both are current gold producers and MTO, in particular, has been growing their monthly production steadily all last year and they produced over 4,500 oz of gold in December.


I also own some base metal plays, which also hit buy signals recently - FM, LIM, PDN (uranium), TKO, SLW, and S.


A stock I wrote about on Monday - DWI (Dragonwave) - announced earnings this week and also announced a new contract with 'a large US carrier' but did not give a value for the contract.  A couple of days later, DWI not only announced a deal with a company to sell their products to the Chinese market (which is growing out cell networks rapidly and needs lots of hardware), but the first sales under this contract have already been delivered.  Needless to say, DWI jumped on this news and has largely kept the gains throughout the rest of the week.  I sold about 15% of my DWI that I purchased at lower levels to lock in some gains, but still hold the rest.


To round out my holdings, I have EMA, SLF, CR, LTS, L, and MBT,  Of all of the securities I own right now, none are showing sell signals - they are all holds except LIM and LTS that are current buys (I already have some of each so I won't buy more right now).


This fantastic week for me was during a week that the overall stock markets (especially in the US) didn't do that great, but that is largely due to my gold and base metals holdings.  I also saw a story today about how there may be a shortage of physical gold and how this could really drive up gold prices if people start demanding physical delivery of their gold.  While all of this news is good for the gold stocks I hold, it isn't the reason that I bought them in the first place, as I simply follow the moving average.


I could easily give back some of this week's gains once trading resumes this week, but it sure feels good to have such a good week.  I am up 6 days in a row now, and 8 of the last 9.

Market Uncertain, But Almost Fully Invested

All the pundits and business TV channels are talking doom and gloom right now and are predicting corrections in the US stock market of 10 - 15%, and they are also predicting that gold will fall further.  Well, listening to this 'news' isn't part of my investing strategy, thankfully, and I simply need to follow the moving averages and watch the graphs.


As of yesterday, I am a bit over 78% invested right now, with the rest in cash (but with a few more securities showing a BUY signal.  I am holding quite a few precious metal securities right now - HGU, SLW, AUQ, and YRI and I just sold OSK today.  I had bought OSK on Dec 30 at 4.71 during tax loss selling (when it showed a buy signal) and sold it today at 6.23 after Goldcorp made an unsolicited bid for OSK.  The final price paid for the OSK shares will likely be higher but since it is tied to G's share price (and I already have enough other gold stocks), I decided to sell my OSK and move on.


I also have some base metal securities - PDN, FM, LIM, and SAS and oil & gas stocks like CR and LTS.  Rounding out my securities holdings are SLF, EMA, LW, and MBT.


I am more heavily weighted in base metals and precious metals overall than I would like to be at any one time but the bottom line is that I follow the buy signals and right now there are a lot of them in these areas.  The US markets and Canadian financials have been going down lately, and I have not been in those markets since I sold my shares to lock in gains (sold HFU, HSU, and HQU).


There are a few securities that I am looking to pick up tomorrow (new BUY signals), including MEG, S, and ZJG (junior gold ETF, that I may not buy since I already have a few gold stocks).  G is also a new buy, but having just sold my OSK (that will likely turn into G shares when the takeover is approved), I may avoid G. 


A few of my current holdings are also close to a SELL signal, including LIM and LTS but I won't let go of them until their share price goes below the 50-day average, as is my guideline.


If stocks DO correct, then even if the price of gold bullion goes up, the price of gold shares may follow the market down, but I will just keep an eye on the charts and make that decision when the time comes.


Lastly, another of my holdings - DWI - has done pretty well the last month or so and they came out with earnings today after the close.  They lost money in the quarter but less than expected, and they also announced a new contract with a large US wireless carrier (although they didn't give the contract value), so I think it may go up a bit tomorrow (it isn't close to the moving average line, so no real danger right now).  This stock has suffered lately but looks to have bottomed about a month ago and this new contract should really help them out.


Until next time...