An up and down (but even) week...

This was a pretty up and down week, with a big down day for me on Wednesday and the other three days being up to even things out.  I closed the week with a YTD overall return of 8.64%, as compared with the YTD return of the TSX of 4.3%, so I am still doing pretty well.  I managed to avoid my bad habits this past week, largely because I am so fully invested and have no funds available to day trade.


At this point, I am 88% invested in securities, with the remainder in cash, ready to deploy.




I still have lots of precious metals holdings - HBU, HZU, BTO, MTO, and YRI - and I still have a few in the energy space - LTS, PD, and TBE.  I have some other miners - CCO, PDN, and TKO - and a utility (EMA) and a financial (HFU).  I also still have a small amount of DWI.  This past week, I added to my positions in MTO and HZU.




Some sell indicators at the close on Friday are on PDN and DWI, so I will look at unloading these on Monday (with stop losses, of course).




There aren't any new buys as of the close on Friday (HFU, CCO, and TBE are all buys but I already own them), so I won't be looking to pick up any new stocks right away on Monday.  That said, BB looks interesting at 10.17, so I may dip my toe in there a bit.




I am also keeping an eye on natural gas since it has risen to much lately, and may look to get into HND, to profit if the natural gas price settles back a bit.




Most of my holdings are solidly in hold territory, so there isn't much to do right away on Monday, so I will mostly sit tight.

A Good Week to Own Resource Stocks...

This past week was a lot better than last week - this week my portfolio was up 5%, whereas last week it was down 2.3% (mostly due to bad habits that I mentioned in my last post).  This week, I stuck to the plan and followed the moving averages and gold and silver had a great week so that helps as well.


I still own a lot of precious metals securities - HBU (gold bullion ETF), HZU (silver ETF), BTO (junior gold producer), MTO (junior gold producer), and YRI (mid-tier gold producer).  I also have other mining stocks such as CCO (uranium), PDN (uranium), TCM (mostly moly), and TKO (copper).




I have a couple of energy related stocks - LTS and PD, a technology stock (DWI), and a utility (EMA) to round out my portfolio.  As of today, I am 82% invested overall (with the rest in cash, waiting to deploy).




The markets are a little uncertain right now, as the minor correction was shorter (about 6%) than most had expected, so I am not sure if being more heavily invested right now is a good idea.  That said, I follow the graphs and do what they tell me, and don't pay too much attention to macro-economic news.




For this Tues, new buy signals are from HFU (financials ETF), GLN (telecom), SU (energy), TBE (energy), and WIN (technology).  I am most likely to purchase TBE and WIN on Monday (I also think both are takeover targets, especially WIN).  I am also looking at HNU (natural gas ETF), as it looks like it has room to move upwards and it isn't far from the 50-day moving average line.


Year-to-date, my portfolio return is now 8.71%, compared to the TSX YTD return of 3.2%, so I am still well ahead of the benchmark that I am comparing against.  Had I not fallen back into bad habits (as I described in my last post), I would be well over 10% YTD right now, so I have to try to resist that temptation and stick with my strategy that is working (at least for now).  I still expect a 10%+ correction in the next 3 to 5 months, but even if this DOES happen, gold bullion, silver, and even gold stocks should perform pretty well (or at least not as bad as the overall market).


In any case, I will continue to follow the moving averages and do what they say.

February Starts as January Ends

Well, another tough week for my investments this week.  Ahead of Monday's big drop, I was not only mostly out of equities but I was also in some of the 'negative' ETF's, as they had signaled a buy.  This looked great on Monday but then the market came back for the rest of the week, more than making up for Monday's losses (my gains).  The markets seem very uncertain right now so I am not sure why they aren't still correcting, but that is the nonsensical part of investing in the markets.  When using moving averages, I want the markets to pick a direction (up or down, I don't care) and keep going in that direction for awhile.  When the markets have swings from positive to negative, that is what creates a lot of false buys and sells and causes problems for my method.


YTD, my return is still positive, at 3.8%.  This still compares well with the TSX YTD return, which stands at 1.2% for 2014.  My goal is to stay ahead of this index, but weeks like this past one won't help me.


At this point, I am 69% invested in equities.  I do have a sell signal on one of my ETF's - HQU - so if it continues to go down on Monday (ie. the Nasdaq goes up), then I will sell it.  A similar ETF - HSD - is also close to a sell signal.


A few of the securities I hold are at buy signals right now (I will hold, but won't buy more at this point) - HBU, DWI, and PDN.  The signal is bullish but I already bought these at similar levels so I won't buy more of them at this time.


My portfolio also includes gold miners BTO and MTO, commodity miners PDN, TKO and LIM, energy stocks LTS and PD, and utility EMA.


There are a few securities that closed with a buy signal on Friday that I will take a look at on Monday, including HEU, HQU (the opposite of the HQD I hold), HZU (silver ETF that really interests me), XVX, CCO, MEG, T, TBE, and WIN.


I get into some bad habits sometimes (trying to day-trade), which I did this week and it cost me.  It looks like easy money but it is really hard trying to decide when to get in and out, so I need to stick to my strategy that worked for the early part of this year.  Up and down markets may be in the cards, though, for the next few months, and this makes it very hard for my strategy.

January Ends With a Whimper (for my portfolio, at least)

Well, after having a total return of 10.5% on January 20, the last two weeks of January weren't as kind to me and I ended the month with a total return of 6.1% YTD.  That is actually a very good return for one month, especially when the TSX Composite had a return of only .5% during that same period.  This is the index that I compare my performance to, as I primarily buy Canadian securities and it is my 'home' exchange.


Despite the recent weakness in the gold price (perhaps due to the Chinese being off work for a week for their New Year?), I am still pretty heavily invested in gold ETF's and stocks - HBU, HGU, ZJG, MTO, and K.  I am also in some other metals miners - TKO, LIM, and PDN.


Also, the US markets are at an inflection point - the S&P is indicating sell and the Nasdaq just indicated buy - so you have to carefully pick your horses here.  I bought the HSD (betting on the S&P going down), but I will be ready to sell it again if the markets don't, in fact, go down.


Rounding out my portfolio right now are EMA, DWI, LW, and MBT.  Currently, I am 72% invested with the remainder in cash.  I don't own any bonds right now but I have in the past so I may take a look at them. 


The markets are a little uncertain right now so I am not sure if I want to more fully invested or not, but I do follow the moving averages so I usually do what they tell me.  For Monday, some securities that have just indicated buy signals are HED, HVU, XVX, COS, LTS, PD and TCW (both drillers), and TBE.  I will likely buy HED and HVU, betting on a market correction in the US (at least a moderate one), but I won't know for sure until Monday.


I have to be happy with my return YTD when compared to the markets - my goal remains to preserve capital and try to grow my holdings.