Down 0.9% this week, on market fluctuations due to the Ukraine and China data

I was down 0.9% last week, as my holdings did pretty well, and my loss was due to a bad bet on the price of natural gas.  I bought HNU just above the 50-day moving average betting that it would bounce off it but it went down through it.  As per my rules, I sold the HNU once I saw that it was below the 50-day MA.


My YTD return is 10.16%, compared to 4.4% for the TSX 60, so I am still doing well for the year.  I am currently 67.6% invested right now, with the rest in cash, waiting to deploy.  My holdings include precious metals (HBU, HZU, and MTO), other resources (TBE, TLM), and EMA, BA, XSR, and ZEB. 


MTO (that I have written about in previous posts) had an especially good week, as they announced that they had expanded their main resource at their Bachelor mine, by perhaps as much as 33%.  We are still waiting for MTO to announce the drill results at their Barry mine, which could push the share price up further.


Both TLM and XSR are below their 50-day MA's but near levels of support, so I still hold them but I will sell them quickly if they drop much more.  BA and TBE are both right at their 50-day MA's, so I may have to sell them soon as well if they drop.


There are many new buys as of Friday, including HOU, HVU, ERF, PDN (that I sold recently), QBR.B, RUS, and SPM.  I am also looking at HGU, which has been doing well lately but it still well below recent highs.


For Monday, I want to see how the Russia / Ukraine referendum issue is working out before I decide to deploy more money or sell some securities.  Of the buys, I am most likely to purchase HGU, HOU, HVU, ERF, and QBR.B.


I am still doing pretty well for this year but the Ukraine uncertainty and the fact that the US markets might be overbought both point to a possible correction in the next few months.  That said, March and April are often the last couple of months to make money before the "Sell in May and go away" axiom kicks in.

Up about 1% this week...

I am up about 1% this week, to a total YTD return of 11.07%, compared to the YTD return of the TSX of 5%, so I am still doing well.  I was up higher during the week but closed the week with a down day on Friday.


I am currently 77% invested in stocks and ETF's, with the rest in cash.  I am currently into precious metals - HBU, HZU, and MTO, and some energy - TBE and TLM.  I am also in EMA, XSR, BA, HFU, and TCM.  All of these are above the 50-day moving average line except for XSR and TLM.


For XSR and TLM, it looked to me that they were hitting a multiple-bottom, which generally shows support for the stock price.  I saw the XSR support around 8.30 so I purchased it at 8.50 recently and it closed Friday at 8.99 (right at the 50-day MA).  TLM's support looks to be around 11.00 so it if drops much from here I will simply dump it.


There are many stocks that I follow that are just newly above the 50-day MA line that I am looking to purchase on Monday - DWI, MFC, PGF, QBR.B, RUS, SNC, SU, TCW, and TGL.  Many of these stocks are great blue chip Canadian companies, but I am not sure which ones (if any) that I will purchase on Monday.  Having so many stocks with buy signals Monday is exactly the reason why I always try to have some cash ready to invest.


As March goes on, precious metals typically weaken so I have stop losses in on those securities - the exception to this could be if there are external forces (like Ukraine) that affect gold.  The gain that gold got this past Thursday was given back on Friday, so it is pretty volatile.


I still think that there is a correction coming, since valuations are getting very high, especially in the US.  That said, I don't invest on speculation and I follow the 50-day MA line.


I am doing well so far this year, so I will continue to follow my rules.

A choppy week, but up 1.5% for the week

The markets did pretty well this week but gold took a bit of a hit, so my results were up and down for the week but ended up about 1.5% for the week.  I am up 10.1% YTD - compared to the TSX index which is up 4.3% YTD - so I am still doing pretty well this year.


Right now, I am 82% invested in stocks and ETF's, with the rest in cash.  I hold precious metals (HBU, HZU, BTO, MTO, and YRI), base metals (TKO), financials (HFU), energy (LTS, PD, TBE) and a couple of dividend stallwarts (BA and EMA).  I had two uranium stocks - CCO and PDN - but they jumped quickly this week so I sold them.  I will keep an eye on them, with the goal of buying them back at lower prices.


MTO put out good news yesterday (they halted to do it), publishing their first production costs for their gold since going into commercial production (and it was a great number, under $US 800 / oz), so MTO had a nice strong close and will hopefully get lots of attention at the PDAC conference next week in Toronto (takeovers of gold mining companies should really pick up this year, especially the ones with production already, low cash costs, and expanding resources).


I am looking at a few securities for Monday, that are now showing buy signals - HNU (natural gas ETF), IVN (mining), and some others of lesser interest since they are already trading near their highs (ARE, HSE, MFC, RUS, and THI).  I am also still keeping an eye on WIN, as it has been steady for a long time, and it is right near the buy signal (but not there yet).


I am also watching XSR even though it is not near its buy signal, since it looks to be forming a quadruple bottom (a sign of good support).  If it moves up a bit from here, I will likely pick up a few shares for a trade (then buy more when / if it moves up an crosses the 50-day moving average line).


My system is working for me so far this year (and I would be up even more - another 3% or so - if I didn't fall back into some bad habits, that I am trying to avoid).