While I don't imagine anyone is still reading my blog, since I haven't posted in over a year, I thought I would try to start posting again. With the markets being pretty jittery these days and with the up and down swings seeming alternating, I have been sitting largely in cash for the last few weeks. I am 84% in cash right now, and almost half of that is in corporate bonds with a good yield (and also a good capital return, it turns out).
For the last few weeks, half of the securities I have been in (and out of) have been negative ETF's - they go up when the markets go down. Most of the stocks and positive ETF's that I follow are in 'do not hold' territory - that is, they are below their 40-day moving average lines.
That said, there ARE a few securities that just said 'Buy' on Friday, so I will try to pick them up on Monday if they continue to rise. They are HSD, LIF.UN, PWF, and HBD. You may notice that two of these securities are negative ETF's - HSD bets against the US S&P index and HBD bets against the price of gold bullion.
I am not expecting any major positive influences on the markets any time soon - there is plenty of bad news coming out of Europe, the US economic recovery looks to be slowing, and we are coming up to the 'sell in May and go away' period of the year. I suspect that most of the securities that I will hold over the next few months will be negative ETF's but the moving averages will tell me what to buy (and sell).
If anyone IS still checking out my blog, I would be very interested to hear what you are doing (investment-wise) and which securities you hold or are looking at buying.
Showing posts with label investing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label investing. Show all posts
Sunday, April 15, 2012
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Mid-February Update
Well, the markets are sailing along and all is good. All the stories for the last little while have been about the impending correction and it hasn't happened yet. That said, we are bound to have at least a 10% correction soon, although it may not come until May or June, as the typical summer slowdown sets in (last year, April was weak).
For now, I am up 2.1% YTD, so I am on target so far of my 2011 goal of 1% return per month. The overall markets have done better than that but I am never fully invested so my returns are a bit lower (and easier to stomach the ups and downs).
Currently, I am just over 60% invested overall (I was as high as 80% invested in early February). I currently own CP, FTT, G, HBU, HFU, HGU, L, LIF.un, PBN, PGD, PWF, SNC, T, THI, and TRP. There may be more stocks that I will be looking to buy next week as well, but I haven't looked at the moving averages yet this weekend. Monday is a holiday so there is no rush.
I will admit that the thought of a significant correction soon is a bit worrisome but I can't let it make me abandon my investment strategy (or I would have sold everything months ago, and missed out on the recent gains). For now, I will stay the course and just make sure I have stop losses in place for my largest positions.
For now, I am up 2.1% YTD, so I am on target so far of my 2011 goal of 1% return per month. The overall markets have done better than that but I am never fully invested so my returns are a bit lower (and easier to stomach the ups and downs).
Currently, I am just over 60% invested overall (I was as high as 80% invested in early February). I currently own CP, FTT, G, HBU, HFU, HGU, L, LIF.un, PBN, PGD, PWF, SNC, T, THI, and TRP. There may be more stocks that I will be looking to buy next week as well, but I haven't looked at the moving averages yet this weekend. Monday is a holiday so there is no rush.
I will admit that the thought of a significant correction soon is a bit worrisome but I can't let it make me abandon my investment strategy (or I would have sold everything months ago, and missed out on the recent gains). For now, I will stay the course and just make sure I have stop losses in place for my largest positions.
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Another Year Wrapped Up
Well, 2010 is now officially in the books. I ended the year with a 7.7% return for the year - below my original goal of 1% gain per month but ahead of my revised goal of 0.5% gain per month. I finished behind the 2010 gains for the major indices (TSX, S&P, NASDAQ, etc.) but I only averaged an investment rate of about 50% for the year (with the rest in cash at any given time, ready to deploy), so I had an easier time sleeping at night than if I had all my cash invested and had to put up with the big market swings all year. I finished 2010 near my high for the year (up 8%), which I hit on December 30th.
Going into 2011 (Canadian trading to begin on Tuesday, January 4), I am 33% invested with the rest in cash. I currently own ARE, BIN, HSE, OCX, S, SC, TRP, and YLO. For Tuesday, I am looking at more securities that are in BUY territory - HNU, BBD.b, COS.un, ECA, LIF.un, PWF, and QBR.b. I am also looking at CCO, which is already in HOLD territory and the outlook for uranium looks positive for 2011.
I will also deposit $5K into my TSFA account on Tuesday, to get the money in there as soon as I can. It will be the third year that we are eligible to contribute to the TFSA and the third year that I have done so. My original $10K is up to $12,760 so I have over a 25% return so far (I am am sure there are many people with better TFSA returns, but I am happy with this). I know I won't be able to keep this up every year but after 20 years of putting money into the TFSA I hope to have a tidy sum there to augment my RRSP and cash accounts.
Looking back over the last 26 months, I have monthly gains in 21 of those months, I was down in 4 of those months, and I was even for 1. Although I go trade by trade according to the moving average graphs, I do evaluate my performance on both a monthly and yearly basis.
I am still looking to refine my approach somewhat to make the returns even better and to reduce the amount of time I spend on looking at my stocks (even though I only spend 15 minutes per day now). One of the things that I started doing was putting in stop losses to protect gains even when I wasn't near the sell indicator on the graphs.
For January, I plan to ONLY sell when the graphs tell me to and to try to trust the difficulty of getting through the lines to maintain gains. There are many securities that I sold on a gain during weakness that then continued to move up and I never got back into them again. The ETF's for the indices, like HQU, HSU, and HXU are prime examples of this. I made money on them all but I was stopped out of them early and missed subsequent large gains over the coming months. I will evaluate in January how this approach works out for me and report back here.
I wish everyone a profitable 2011 and I hope you had good gains in 2010. If you have any questions or comments, please post them here and I will be happy to respond.
Going into 2011 (Canadian trading to begin on Tuesday, January 4), I am 33% invested with the rest in cash. I currently own ARE, BIN, HSE, OCX, S, SC, TRP, and YLO. For Tuesday, I am looking at more securities that are in BUY territory - HNU, BBD.b, COS.un, ECA, LIF.un, PWF, and QBR.b. I am also looking at CCO, which is already in HOLD territory and the outlook for uranium looks positive for 2011.
I will also deposit $5K into my TSFA account on Tuesday, to get the money in there as soon as I can. It will be the third year that we are eligible to contribute to the TFSA and the third year that I have done so. My original $10K is up to $12,760 so I have over a 25% return so far (I am am sure there are many people with better TFSA returns, but I am happy with this). I know I won't be able to keep this up every year but after 20 years of putting money into the TFSA I hope to have a tidy sum there to augment my RRSP and cash accounts.
Looking back over the last 26 months, I have monthly gains in 21 of those months, I was down in 4 of those months, and I was even for 1. Although I go trade by trade according to the moving average graphs, I do evaluate my performance on both a monthly and yearly basis.
I am still looking to refine my approach somewhat to make the returns even better and to reduce the amount of time I spend on looking at my stocks (even though I only spend 15 minutes per day now). One of the things that I started doing was putting in stop losses to protect gains even when I wasn't near the sell indicator on the graphs.
For January, I plan to ONLY sell when the graphs tell me to and to try to trust the difficulty of getting through the lines to maintain gains. There are many securities that I sold on a gain during weakness that then continued to move up and I never got back into them again. The ETF's for the indices, like HQU, HSU, and HXU are prime examples of this. I made money on them all but I was stopped out of them early and missed subsequent large gains over the coming months. I will evaluate in January how this approach works out for me and report back here.
I wish everyone a profitable 2011 and I hope you had good gains in 2010. If you have any questions or comments, please post them here and I will be happy to respond.
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Merry Christmas Everyone
While Christmas is a great time to spend time with family, it is a pretty boring time for stock trading. With the low volumes last week and more low volumes expected for the upcoming week, things can be pretty slow. That said, the hope for a 'Santa Claus rally' this year is high - given that 3 times out of 4 when the markets are up over 10% so far in the year, the markets gain during this week, averaging a gain of almost 1%. With the markets declining last year in the week following Christmas, it has more people optimistic about this year. For me, the more other people are optimistic the more I am pessimistic, as things never seem to happen if everyone expects it to.
My portfolio was up slightly last week, and I am at a 7.8% return for the year so far. I am behind the major market averages but I didn't have to stomach many of the large swings that the market experienced.
Currently, I am about 56% in securities with the remainder in cash (waiting to be deployed). My current holdings are BIN, ECA, HSE, HSU, OCX, PBN, PWF, S, SC, SLW, T, TCW, TRP, WJA, and YLO. There are a few buys for the market open on Dec 28 - ECA, WJA, and YLO that I already own, and I think I will buy some TCM. Thompson Creek has been performing well lately and since I don't own any I will try to buy some next week, since the current price is pretty close to the 40-day moving average.
One more week (3 days, actually) to go, and we can wrap up our returns for 2010.
My portfolio was up slightly last week, and I am at a 7.8% return for the year so far. I am behind the major market averages but I didn't have to stomach many of the large swings that the market experienced.
Currently, I am about 56% in securities with the remainder in cash (waiting to be deployed). My current holdings are BIN, ECA, HSE, HSU, OCX, PBN, PWF, S, SC, SLW, T, TCW, TRP, WJA, and YLO. There are a few buys for the market open on Dec 28 - ECA, WJA, and YLO that I already own, and I think I will buy some TCM. Thompson Creek has been performing well lately and since I don't own any I will try to buy some next week, since the current price is pretty close to the 40-day moving average.
One more week (3 days, actually) to go, and we can wrap up our returns for 2010.
Friday, December 17, 2010
Less than 2 weeks until the end of 2010...
With the year coming to an end, the evaluation of the returns from 2010 can begin in earnest. Did your portfolio beat the indices? Did you feel confident enough in the markets to leave your money invested through all the ups and downs? Did you take some money out of stocks and put it in bonds instead?
For me, I am at a YTD return of 7.5% so far this year, so I am behind the major indices a bit but I haven't had to stomach much of the roller-coaster ride the markets took (since I am less invested invested in stocks when the market is weak and more invested when it is strong - but rarely ever fully invested).
I didn't buy any fixed income at all - I looked into it but I couldn't find anything guaranteed that would give me more than .5%, even on a $100,000 deposit. So, I decided that it was best for me to leave it in cash, ready to invest in equities when the moving average graphs dictated it.
Right now, I am about 38% invested in equities. They include BIN, HSE, OCX, OSK, PWF, QBR.B, S, T, TCW, TRP and YLO (about half of which I only bought yesterday and today). All signs point to the markets moving upward but I am always skeptical when everyone seems to agree on the direction that the market will take (it usually goes the other way). I will keep following the moving averages, buying and selling as they indicate, so I may very well be buying more equities on Monday.
Most of the ETF's that I follow (for commodities and the market indices) are in the 'hold' territory but I don't currently own any of them since I got stopped out on temporary weakness. This has me re-thinking my practice of putting in manual trailing stops and thinking about strictly sticking to the moving averages to sell. This is hard to do, however, as you often have to watch your gains evaporate before things move back up again.
I started the year with the goal of achieving a return of 1% per month, or 12% for the year, and I won't hit that target. It does look like I will hit my revised goal of 0.5% per month (or 6% return for the year, and I may even hit 8% if the year ends well.
I likely won't post again before the end of 2010 but I may post if I get some time over the holidays. In any case, I will try to post early in the New Year to summarize my 2010 results.
For me, I am at a YTD return of 7.5% so far this year, so I am behind the major indices a bit but I haven't had to stomach much of the roller-coaster ride the markets took (since I am less invested invested in stocks when the market is weak and more invested when it is strong - but rarely ever fully invested).
I didn't buy any fixed income at all - I looked into it but I couldn't find anything guaranteed that would give me more than .5%, even on a $100,000 deposit. So, I decided that it was best for me to leave it in cash, ready to invest in equities when the moving average graphs dictated it.
Right now, I am about 38% invested in equities. They include BIN, HSE, OCX, OSK, PWF, QBR.B, S, T, TCW, TRP and YLO (about half of which I only bought yesterday and today). All signs point to the markets moving upward but I am always skeptical when everyone seems to agree on the direction that the market will take (it usually goes the other way). I will keep following the moving averages, buying and selling as they indicate, so I may very well be buying more equities on Monday.
Most of the ETF's that I follow (for commodities and the market indices) are in the 'hold' territory but I don't currently own any of them since I got stopped out on temporary weakness. This has me re-thinking my practice of putting in manual trailing stops and thinking about strictly sticking to the moving averages to sell. This is hard to do, however, as you often have to watch your gains evaporate before things move back up again.
I started the year with the goal of achieving a return of 1% per month, or 12% for the year, and I won't hit that target. It does look like I will hit my revised goal of 0.5% per month (or 6% return for the year, and I may even hit 8% if the year ends well.
I likely won't post again before the end of 2010 but I may post if I get some time over the holidays. In any case, I will try to post early in the New Year to summarize my 2010 results.
Sunday, December 5, 2010
Will there be a Santa Claus Rally this year?
As we approach the end of 2010, I am sitting at a YTD overall return of 6.3%. After it was clear that I would not reach my goal of a 1% per month return, and I lowered my goal to 1/2% per month, it would seem that I am on track to reach that goal (but the year is not over yet).
I am currently about 61% invested in securities (the rest in cash). I currently hold the following ETFs and stocks: BCE, FTT, HEU, HFU, HQU, HSU, HXU, PWF, QBR.B, RUS, SLW, SU, YLO, ENF.UN and PMZ.UN.
I am sorry to say that I was holding COS.un on Friday when they announced their distribution cut and the gap down at the open went below my stop loss so I lost quite a bit there. I sold out near the end of the day, due to the uncertainty that they face moving into 2011. It will, no doubt, recover somewhat but I don't want to hold it any more.
I am looking at a few securities for Monday - HJU, HNU (although investing in natural gas is not for the faint of heart), and CP. I still want to be invested these days since bad news (mostly about European debt) has not been crushing the market lately as much as it had before. That seems to indicate market strength, to some extent, although I am still only relying on the moving average graphs to decide what to buy and how long to hold it. I still don't rely much on market news at all, although good news (or the lack of bad news) can certainly help you sleep at night.
While 2010 hasn't been spectacular, most of the markets have done reasonably well so I don't expect alot of tax-loss selling at the end of the year. This should help the markets close out the year strong and move into the early part of 2011 in good shape.
We will see what the next few weeks hold, to see how our final 2010 numbers look.
I am currently about 61% invested in securities (the rest in cash). I currently hold the following ETFs and stocks: BCE, FTT, HEU, HFU, HQU, HSU, HXU, PWF, QBR.B, RUS, SLW, SU, YLO, ENF.UN and PMZ.UN.
I am sorry to say that I was holding COS.un on Friday when they announced their distribution cut and the gap down at the open went below my stop loss so I lost quite a bit there. I sold out near the end of the day, due to the uncertainty that they face moving into 2011. It will, no doubt, recover somewhat but I don't want to hold it any more.
I am looking at a few securities for Monday - HJU, HNU (although investing in natural gas is not for the faint of heart), and CP. I still want to be invested these days since bad news (mostly about European debt) has not been crushing the market lately as much as it had before. That seems to indicate market strength, to some extent, although I am still only relying on the moving average graphs to decide what to buy and how long to hold it. I still don't rely much on market news at all, although good news (or the lack of bad news) can certainly help you sleep at night.
While 2010 hasn't been spectacular, most of the markets have done reasonably well so I don't expect alot of tax-loss selling at the end of the year. This should help the markets close out the year strong and move into the early part of 2011 in good shape.
We will see what the next few weeks hold, to see how our final 2010 numbers look.
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Still in The Game
Sorry for not posting in awhile but other priorities came up (work, personal life, vacation, etc.). I have been following the moving averages all this time and have been getting in and out of stocks. Except for a tough time in a correction in August, things have gone quite well. I am not sure if I am outperforming the market averages or not (don't think I am) but I know I wouldn't have been able to sleep if I was simply fully invested in ETF's that follow the market averages, so that is the trade-off that I am willing to make.
Year to date, I am up 6.3% overall in my accounts, so I can't complain about that, given all the doom and gloom and uncertainty in the investing news every day. I am not sure how long the current rally will last but if it goes into December then there is a good chance it will turn into a semi-regular 'Santa Claus' rally and this usually continues at least into mid-January. I am not sure if it will last this long but I am prepared to be invested fairly heavily if it does.
I was up 1.8% this past week overall, on the strengths of gold and silver, among other things. I sold some securities on Friday, as I had stop-lossed big gains from Thursday to lock them in. I will buy them back if the markets continue to climb (I already bought back HGU, for example, but haven't yet bought back SLW, that had a great ride in a short timeframe).
I currently hold some trusts - BTE.UN, COS.UN, EXE.UN, and MSI.UN, some trusts - HFU and HGU, and some stocks - BBD.B, CNQ, FTT, L, MBT, QBR.B, SC, SNC, and THI. I am 60% invested at this point, and I will buy more or sell more depending on the direction of the markets.
There are some BUYS on Monday, like BBD.B and MBT, but I already own those stocks. Telus (T) is also a buy, and I will buy it on Monday if it is strong in the morning (don't want it to drop back down into DON'T HOLD territory right after I buy it).
I would be interested to hear how the rest of you are doing, and if anyone has incorporated moving averages into their investing strategy.
Year to date, I am up 6.3% overall in my accounts, so I can't complain about that, given all the doom and gloom and uncertainty in the investing news every day. I am not sure how long the current rally will last but if it goes into December then there is a good chance it will turn into a semi-regular 'Santa Claus' rally and this usually continues at least into mid-January. I am not sure if it will last this long but I am prepared to be invested fairly heavily if it does.
I was up 1.8% this past week overall, on the strengths of gold and silver, among other things. I sold some securities on Friday, as I had stop-lossed big gains from Thursday to lock them in. I will buy them back if the markets continue to climb (I already bought back HGU, for example, but haven't yet bought back SLW, that had a great ride in a short timeframe).
I currently hold some trusts - BTE.UN, COS.UN, EXE.UN, and MSI.UN, some trusts - HFU and HGU, and some stocks - BBD.B, CNQ, FTT, L, MBT, QBR.B, SC, SNC, and THI. I am 60% invested at this point, and I will buy more or sell more depending on the direction of the markets.
There are some BUYS on Monday, like BBD.B and MBT, but I already own those stocks. Telus (T) is also a buy, and I will buy it on Monday if it is strong in the morning (don't want it to drop back down into DON'T HOLD territory right after I buy it).
I would be interested to hear how the rest of you are doing, and if anyone has incorporated moving averages into their investing strategy.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Mid-Summer Market Doldrums
Well, I hope everyone is having a nice summer. The volatile markets are very frustrating these days, especially with the correction recently that presented a good buying opportunity for the brave (I am not always brave, especially after 2008).
I am still following the moving average graphs and I am pretty heavily invested right now, given the market instability - I am about 75% in stocks right now, with the remainder in cash (although I am looking to buy more this coming week).
Earnings have been looking pretty steady so far, and the worries in Europe seem to have subsided for the most part. Also, China seems to be back buying commodities again (just look at potash companies last week) so that is a good sign as well. With more positive earnings this week (I think that about 25% of the S&P reports this week), hopefully the strong markets continue.
Currently, I am in AGU, ARE, BCE, CCO, CNQ, CP, FM, FTT, HSE, RCI.B, RUS, SC, SNC, TRP, X, WJA, BTE.UN, and YLO.UN. All of these securities are in the 'hold' range (current price above the 40-day moving average) except for YLO.UN which I am keeping for the exceptional yield.
I am looking at picking up some more securities this coming week that only moved into buy territory late last week. These include HQU (Nasdaq ETF), HSU (US S&P ETF), EXE.UN (Extendicare), PWF (Power Financial), S (Sherritt), and SU (Suncor). As I mentioned in a previous post, I now wait until the SECOND day that a security is in the buy territory before I buy, to try to cut down on false buys (quick stock turnarounds). There are other stocks in their first day of buying (BBD.B, LIF.UN, and more) but I will wait for confirmation to buy them.
In any case, I am heavily invested right now so I don't have too many more stocks to buy anyway. I already own 18 individual securities and I don't want to go above 25 or so, so I will either leave the remaining funds in cash or I will purchase more of something I already own.
Year-to-date, I am at 3.5% return (not my high of the year, but close), which is not too bad given the overall market returns so far this year. I am well ahead of the .5% or so that I would have received in even the highest money market funds and I don't wish to lock in my money into anything longer just to get an extra percent or two in return.
Here's to a continuing strong earnings season, and let's hope we get a nice summer rally before all the traders get back in September so we can really make some gains in the last 4 months of the year.
I am still following the moving average graphs and I am pretty heavily invested right now, given the market instability - I am about 75% in stocks right now, with the remainder in cash (although I am looking to buy more this coming week).
Earnings have been looking pretty steady so far, and the worries in Europe seem to have subsided for the most part. Also, China seems to be back buying commodities again (just look at potash companies last week) so that is a good sign as well. With more positive earnings this week (I think that about 25% of the S&P reports this week), hopefully the strong markets continue.
Currently, I am in AGU, ARE, BCE, CCO, CNQ, CP, FM, FTT, HSE, RCI.B, RUS, SC, SNC, TRP, X, WJA, BTE.UN, and YLO.UN. All of these securities are in the 'hold' range (current price above the 40-day moving average) except for YLO.UN which I am keeping for the exceptional yield.
I am looking at picking up some more securities this coming week that only moved into buy territory late last week. These include HQU (Nasdaq ETF), HSU (US S&P ETF), EXE.UN (Extendicare), PWF (Power Financial), S (Sherritt), and SU (Suncor). As I mentioned in a previous post, I now wait until the SECOND day that a security is in the buy territory before I buy, to try to cut down on false buys (quick stock turnarounds). There are other stocks in their first day of buying (BBD.B, LIF.UN, and more) but I will wait for confirmation to buy them.
In any case, I am heavily invested right now so I don't have too many more stocks to buy anyway. I already own 18 individual securities and I don't want to go above 25 or so, so I will either leave the remaining funds in cash or I will purchase more of something I already own.
Year-to-date, I am at 3.5% return (not my high of the year, but close), which is not too bad given the overall market returns so far this year. I am well ahead of the .5% or so that I would have received in even the highest money market funds and I don't wish to lock in my money into anything longer just to get an extra percent or two in return.
Here's to a continuing strong earnings season, and let's hope we get a nice summer rally before all the traders get back in September so we can really make some gains in the last 4 months of the year.
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Are the Markets Stabilizing?
After a horrible, choppy May, June has started to look a bit better. I was up 1.6% last week, and I am about 70% invested in securities right now (a high level for me, as anyone who follows my blog knows). Many stocks went into 'Buy' territory during the last week and a half, and I am set to buy more stocks on Monday.
I am currently in BCE, BBD.b, BIN, CNQ, CP, FTT, HEU, HGU, HXU, SLW, T, THI, TRP, ENF.un, EXE.un, and YLO.un (yep, still in the Yellow Pages). Of these securities, BCE and THI are 'Sells' for Monday, HXU, BBD.b, EXE.un, and FTT are still 'Buys' on Monday, and the rest are 'Holds' except for YLO.un. YLO is a 'Buy Soon' but I held onto this one because of the distribution and the balance sheet looks good (the only exception to my trading rules).
After a decent sized correction in May and early June, I am hoping that the markets are in for some gains in the next little while before slowing down in mid-July for the remainder of the summer, picking up again in September as it usually does. At 70% invested, I have more money in stocks than I am comfortable with but I am sticking with the graphs on this one (as I said, last week was good). I have some stop losses in already and I will pull out of my stocks quickly if they start to show serious weakness.
The key in my method is to take advantage of the upswings as much as you can and make as much profit as you can. I never sell exactly at the top but I get out quickly on downswings and hopefully the gains outweigh the losses. If the markets go sideways or down next week, I will lighten the load a bit but if they stay stable or go up, I will purchase more securities.
The 'Buys' for Monday include HFD (I won't buy this one, as the HXU is pointing up), HJU, HXU, BBD.b, COS.un, EXE.un, FTT, LIF.un, MSI.un, and WJA. One adjustment to my method that I have made is that I no longer buy stocks on the first day that they indicate a Buy - I wait until they show two Buy days in a row before I pull the trigger. This has helped to elimate some of the quick 'false Buys' that my method can bring if you buy right away. Another way to do this is to wait until a stock is 3% above the 40-day moving average to buy it but, for me, the two Buy days in a row is quicker and simpler to do.
Here's to another good week coming up...
I am currently in BCE, BBD.b, BIN, CNQ, CP, FTT, HEU, HGU, HXU, SLW, T, THI, TRP, ENF.un, EXE.un, and YLO.un (yep, still in the Yellow Pages). Of these securities, BCE and THI are 'Sells' for Monday, HXU, BBD.b, EXE.un, and FTT are still 'Buys' on Monday, and the rest are 'Holds' except for YLO.un. YLO is a 'Buy Soon' but I held onto this one because of the distribution and the balance sheet looks good (the only exception to my trading rules).
After a decent sized correction in May and early June, I am hoping that the markets are in for some gains in the next little while before slowing down in mid-July for the remainder of the summer, picking up again in September as it usually does. At 70% invested, I have more money in stocks than I am comfortable with but I am sticking with the graphs on this one (as I said, last week was good). I have some stop losses in already and I will pull out of my stocks quickly if they start to show serious weakness.
The key in my method is to take advantage of the upswings as much as you can and make as much profit as you can. I never sell exactly at the top but I get out quickly on downswings and hopefully the gains outweigh the losses. If the markets go sideways or down next week, I will lighten the load a bit but if they stay stable or go up, I will purchase more securities.
The 'Buys' for Monday include HFD (I won't buy this one, as the HXU is pointing up), HJU, HXU, BBD.b, COS.un, EXE.un, FTT, LIF.un, MSI.un, and WJA. One adjustment to my method that I have made is that I no longer buy stocks on the first day that they indicate a Buy - I wait until they show two Buy days in a row before I pull the trigger. This has helped to elimate some of the quick 'false Buys' that my method can bring if you buy right away. Another way to do this is to wait until a stock is 3% above the 40-day moving average to buy it but, for me, the two Buy days in a row is quicker and simpler to do.
Here's to another good week coming up...
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
May Wrap-Up
Sorry for not posting for awhile, but as most of you know, the market has been crazy during the last few weeks. The big daily up and down swings are not good for my method of investing, as I want the market to pick a direction (up or down, I don't care) and stick with it for at least a few weeks (preferably a few months). During the main part of this correction, I did manage to get out of all of my stocks and into some of the 'down' ETF's like HXD and HSD so I actually minimized my losses and made a bit of money during the worst days. Just when I thought the correction would last for a bit, a couple of strong days led me to get rid of the down ETF's and back into stocks.
YTD at the end of May, I was still up 2.5%. This is behind my goal of a 1% gain per month for the year but not bad considering the markets are down YTD for the most part. The goal is to make as much money as possible but to outperform the markets themselves may be a more realistic goal since most people don't do that successfully.
Currently, many of the stocks I follow are in 'don't hold' territory - stocks like Agrium, RIM, Westjet, CP Rail, Baytex, Manulife, Manitoba Telecom, and many others - but I have been buying some other stocks recently.
I currently own BCE, Enbridge Income Fund, Encana, Loblaw, Riocan Income Fund, Rogers Communication, Silver Wheaton, and the ETF's HGU (double gold stocks up) and HSU (double US S&P up). Many of these stocks had a very bad June 1 but bounced back nicely on June 2. This type of volatility is not for the faint of heart and, as I said earlier, is not good for my investing strategy as it gives me many false buys and sells.
For the most part, the securities I own are currently even to up a bit, although this can change quickly. Many investing professionals (such as the ones on CNBC and BNN) are recommending to sell securities into any strength and to sit in cash until the end of the summer. The 'sell in May and stay away' strategy is well known as a summer strategy but I will continue my method and hope for either a summer rally or a correction (as long as we don't get one day up, the next day down I am pretty happy).
I don't think my 1% per month gain average is realistic now, and I am now hoping for .5% per month for the year, which will still substantially outpace fixed income (and the markets themselves, at this point). Of course, the year isn't quite half over yet so anything could happen, but 'an outbreak of stability' doesn't appear to be coming anytime soon, with European debt crises, Korean political problems, the BP oil spill, Chinese weakness, and other issues weighing the markets down. While most people do want the markets to go up, it seems to be much easier to trigger big market sell-offs on bad news (even if it is not really even THAT bad).
May 2010 was only my second down month in the last 19 months (October 2009 was the other one, and I had one EVEN month), so I guess that isn't too bad considering the shape the markets have been in during most of that time. I will continue to use my method, and see where that takes me. You just have to learn to take a deep breath some days, and take it (the losses) in stride.
YTD at the end of May, I was still up 2.5%. This is behind my goal of a 1% gain per month for the year but not bad considering the markets are down YTD for the most part. The goal is to make as much money as possible but to outperform the markets themselves may be a more realistic goal since most people don't do that successfully.
Currently, many of the stocks I follow are in 'don't hold' territory - stocks like Agrium, RIM, Westjet, CP Rail, Baytex, Manulife, Manitoba Telecom, and many others - but I have been buying some other stocks recently.
I currently own BCE, Enbridge Income Fund, Encana, Loblaw, Riocan Income Fund, Rogers Communication, Silver Wheaton, and the ETF's HGU (double gold stocks up) and HSU (double US S&P up). Many of these stocks had a very bad June 1 but bounced back nicely on June 2. This type of volatility is not for the faint of heart and, as I said earlier, is not good for my investing strategy as it gives me many false buys and sells.
For the most part, the securities I own are currently even to up a bit, although this can change quickly. Many investing professionals (such as the ones on CNBC and BNN) are recommending to sell securities into any strength and to sit in cash until the end of the summer. The 'sell in May and stay away' strategy is well known as a summer strategy but I will continue my method and hope for either a summer rally or a correction (as long as we don't get one day up, the next day down I am pretty happy).
I don't think my 1% per month gain average is realistic now, and I am now hoping for .5% per month for the year, which will still substantially outpace fixed income (and the markets themselves, at this point). Of course, the year isn't quite half over yet so anything could happen, but 'an outbreak of stability' doesn't appear to be coming anytime soon, with European debt crises, Korean political problems, the BP oil spill, Chinese weakness, and other issues weighing the markets down. While most people do want the markets to go up, it seems to be much easier to trigger big market sell-offs on bad news (even if it is not really even THAT bad).
May 2010 was only my second down month in the last 19 months (October 2009 was the other one, and I had one EVEN month), so I guess that isn't too bad considering the shape the markets have been in during most of that time. I will continue to use my method, and see where that takes me. You just have to learn to take a deep breath some days, and take it (the losses) in stride.
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Behind YTD Target, but back in YLO.un
My overall balance hit a high on April 26 but a weak close to the month (caused primarily by the Greek debt crisis, apparently) has left me at a YTD gain of 3.6% - behind my YTD goal of 4% (1% per month for the year).
I am back in Yellow Pages Income Fund, as I bought back in on a dip mid-week and I am again enjoying the roughly 12% yield (or I do, at least, when the distributions are paid out every month).
I also currently own ECA (Encana), WJA (Westjet), SNC (SNC Lavalin), BCE (Bell), MBT (Manitoba Telecom), THI (Tim Horton's), RCI.B (Rogers Communications), REI (Riocan REIT), and HFU (Financial Bull ETF).
For May 3, the only security that I follow that is a 'buy' is MBT but I already just bought it so I don't need to buy more (yet).
The sells for May 3 include SNC (which I own) and many that I don't own such as HJU, HSE, L, and LIF.UN. Since I don't own these securities, I don't have to sell them just stay out of them for now. Since they are at the sell point right now, a slight gain in any of them would put them into 'buy' territory.
May might be the last month with decent trading action for awhile, since June through August are typically slow months. I would like to make some gains in May before the summer, but I won't alter my method to do so.
I am back in Yellow Pages Income Fund, as I bought back in on a dip mid-week and I am again enjoying the roughly 12% yield (or I do, at least, when the distributions are paid out every month).
I also currently own ECA (Encana), WJA (Westjet), SNC (SNC Lavalin), BCE (Bell), MBT (Manitoba Telecom), THI (Tim Horton's), RCI.B (Rogers Communications), REI (Riocan REIT), and HFU (Financial Bull ETF).
For May 3, the only security that I follow that is a 'buy' is MBT but I already just bought it so I don't need to buy more (yet).
The sells for May 3 include SNC (which I own) and many that I don't own such as HJU, HSE, L, and LIF.UN. Since I don't own these securities, I don't have to sell them just stay out of them for now. Since they are at the sell point right now, a slight gain in any of them would put them into 'buy' territory.
May might be the last month with decent trading action for awhile, since June through August are typically slow months. I would like to make some gains in May before the summer, but I won't alter my method to do so.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Not in Yellow Pages, and Not Liking It...
As you know, I had jumped back into Yellow Pages - I made some quick money then got stopped out as the price settled back for a couple of days. It looked like I might be able to buy it back at lower prices until Friday, when it jumped again. If Yellow Pages passes through $7, I will likely buy back in with a plan to ride it to $8 and beyond.
Now, for what I actually DO own right now. I own BCE, HGU (gold stock bull ETF), ENF.un (Enbridge), L (Loblaw), SNC, REI.un (RioCan), RCI.b (Rogers), THI (Tim Horton's), and TRP (TransCanada Pipelines). I am about 26% invested in securities right now, with the rest in cash. I expect a pullback soon (likely 8 - 12%) and then probably a slow summer (as per normal), so I am a bit worried about getting too heavily invested. I actually don't mind a pullback, especially if it is a prolonged downturn, since I will simply move to the 'Down' ETF's, that rise in price when their underlying market or sector drops in price.
Also, since I follow the graphs, I have to wait until they tell me to buy a stock before I proceed. Many of the stocks I follow are in 'Hold' territory but I don't own them, mostly since I got stopped out on them while protecting gains. It makes it hard to buy back into these securities when they continue to go up later.
As for buys that are coming up on Monday, there are a few that I already own such as BCE, SNC, and TRP - I only recently bought them and they are still buys now, being just above the 40-day moving average. If they turn back negative and go back below the line, I have to be ready to unload them.
There are other buys as well, such as HOU (oil stock bull ETF), BTE.un (my favourite oil and gas trust), and G (Goldcorp). I will be putting in stop-buys for BTE.un and G but I don't want to buy HOU at this time as oil prices are already at a long-time high (and I DO consider other factors sometimes when buying stocks, not just the moving averages). I will be buying BTE.un, however, so I will have some exposure to oil prices anyway (and I also own Enbridge and TransCanada, which are in sectors that are related to oil).
I have been watching natural gas lately, and it is due for a price rebound, especially if there is a warm summer in the US and Canada. The shale gas plays, along with LNG from outside North America, has been driving down natural gas prices to ridiculously low levels, but I don't want to jump in too soon and get burned on a further drop. I plan to play natural gas through HNU (natural gas ETF), and it is in 'Buy Soon' territory, so a couple of up days in natural gas and I would have to jump in. Timing on this is very important since natural gas prices are so volatile, so I have to be ready to jump back out again at any time.
I was up for the fourth straight week this week, and I am now at 4.2% year-to-date, so I am on pace for my goal of a 1% gain per month for the year. Certainly not as exciting as the 50% gain that I achieved last year, but certainly more realistic given normal market conditions. I hope to make some gains in the next few weeks before the expected summer slow down after May ends.
If anyone is still reading my posts and has any questions about a stock they follow or has some feedback as to how they have used any of my method in their own investing, I would love to hear it so drop me a line.
Now, for what I actually DO own right now. I own BCE, HGU (gold stock bull ETF), ENF.un (Enbridge), L (Loblaw), SNC, REI.un (RioCan), RCI.b (Rogers), THI (Tim Horton's), and TRP (TransCanada Pipelines). I am about 26% invested in securities right now, with the rest in cash. I expect a pullback soon (likely 8 - 12%) and then probably a slow summer (as per normal), so I am a bit worried about getting too heavily invested. I actually don't mind a pullback, especially if it is a prolonged downturn, since I will simply move to the 'Down' ETF's, that rise in price when their underlying market or sector drops in price.
Also, since I follow the graphs, I have to wait until they tell me to buy a stock before I proceed. Many of the stocks I follow are in 'Hold' territory but I don't own them, mostly since I got stopped out on them while protecting gains. It makes it hard to buy back into these securities when they continue to go up later.
As for buys that are coming up on Monday, there are a few that I already own such as BCE, SNC, and TRP - I only recently bought them and they are still buys now, being just above the 40-day moving average. If they turn back negative and go back below the line, I have to be ready to unload them.
There are other buys as well, such as HOU (oil stock bull ETF), BTE.un (my favourite oil and gas trust), and G (Goldcorp). I will be putting in stop-buys for BTE.un and G but I don't want to buy HOU at this time as oil prices are already at a long-time high (and I DO consider other factors sometimes when buying stocks, not just the moving averages). I will be buying BTE.un, however, so I will have some exposure to oil prices anyway (and I also own Enbridge and TransCanada, which are in sectors that are related to oil).
I have been watching natural gas lately, and it is due for a price rebound, especially if there is a warm summer in the US and Canada. The shale gas plays, along with LNG from outside North America, has been driving down natural gas prices to ridiculously low levels, but I don't want to jump in too soon and get burned on a further drop. I plan to play natural gas through HNU (natural gas ETF), and it is in 'Buy Soon' territory, so a couple of up days in natural gas and I would have to jump in. Timing on this is very important since natural gas prices are so volatile, so I have to be ready to jump back out again at any time.
I was up for the fourth straight week this week, and I am now at 4.2% year-to-date, so I am on pace for my goal of a 1% gain per month for the year. Certainly not as exciting as the 50% gain that I achieved last year, but certainly more realistic given normal market conditions. I hope to make some gains in the next few weeks before the expected summer slow down after May ends.
If anyone is still reading my posts and has any questions about a stock they follow or has some feedback as to how they have used any of my method in their own investing, I would love to hear it so drop me a line.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Mid-April Update
I am glad I got back into YLO in the mid to low 6.30's, as it recovered to end the week over 6.40 and I think it will go much higher (I am predicting at least $9 before the end of 2010, but time will tell on that one).
Currently, I am also in just a few stocks - YLO.un, ENF.un (Enbridge Income Fund), G (Goldcorp), SNC (SNC Lavalin), L (Loblaw), and BIN (BFI Canada). I will probably have to lighten the load on Monday, though, as both G and SNC at at sell levels and L may be there in another day or two. Stock markets have done well lately, in general, but some bad news late last week may turn them negatively for a while. In any case, I just continue to follow the graphs.
I am up 3.7% year-to-date, so I am still on track for my target of a 1% gain per month (minimum) for the year. I expect the summer months to be slow, as they typically are, so I need to get some gains in April and May to set myself up for the rest of the year.
Currently, I am also in just a few stocks - YLO.un, ENF.un (Enbridge Income Fund), G (Goldcorp), SNC (SNC Lavalin), L (Loblaw), and BIN (BFI Canada). I will probably have to lighten the load on Monday, though, as both G and SNC at at sell levels and L may be there in another day or two. Stock markets have done well lately, in general, but some bad news late last week may turn them negatively for a while. In any case, I just continue to follow the graphs.
I am up 3.7% year-to-date, so I am still on track for my target of a 1% gain per month (minimum) for the year. I expect the summer months to be slow, as they typically are, so I need to get some gains in April and May to set myself up for the rest of the year.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Back Into the Yellow Pages Again
As I have written, I don't strictly follow the buy / sell lines, as I do set stop losses to protect gains once a stock I own has gone up. Due to this, I was stopped out of Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.un) - a trust that I didn't really want to sell due to its turnaround, good momentum, and great yield. Well, I got back into some YLO last week, just ahead of the big jump on Friday. I had noticed that it seemed to have a double or triple top at 6.25 to 6.30, meaning that it hadn't been able to get through that level on earlier attempts. Once I saw that YLO had cleared the 6.35 level, I bought a few thousand shares. I think that the unit price will continue to climb (or stay steady at least), and the monthly yield is still over 12%.
Currnently, I also own BCE, BIN, G, MFC, and ENF.un - all good companies and leaders in their respective fields. There aren't any more that I am looking to buy on Monday, although I may add more YLO if it clears 6.70 or so.
The markets look a little lofty right now, but I see that the Greece bailout deal was agreed to this weekend so the markets should respond favourable to that. I still think there will be a correction coming soon (the markets, especially in the US have had a good month-long run with no really good reason), so I am reluctant to get too deeply invested. I think that investors are getting lulled into thinking that things are good when they really aren't all that good. Sure, things are better than they were last year, but last year was one of the worst years ever, so that was not a very high bar to beat. Relatively better is not necessarily good enough - things need to actually BE better, and employment and other ecomonic news is not great yet.
YTD, I am up 3.4% so I am back on pace for my 1% per month target for the year. I expect things to slow down between May and September as it usually does so I will need to make some good gains in the next month and a half or so to maintain my pace.
Currnently, I also own BCE, BIN, G, MFC, and ENF.un - all good companies and leaders in their respective fields. There aren't any more that I am looking to buy on Monday, although I may add more YLO if it clears 6.70 or so.
The markets look a little lofty right now, but I see that the Greece bailout deal was agreed to this weekend so the markets should respond favourable to that. I still think there will be a correction coming soon (the markets, especially in the US have had a good month-long run with no really good reason), so I am reluctant to get too deeply invested. I think that investors are getting lulled into thinking that things are good when they really aren't all that good. Sure, things are better than they were last year, but last year was one of the worst years ever, so that was not a very high bar to beat. Relatively better is not necessarily good enough - things need to actually BE better, and employment and other ecomonic news is not great yet.
YTD, I am up 3.4% so I am back on pace for my 1% per month target for the year. I expect things to slow down between May and September as it usually does so I will need to make some good gains in the next month and a half or so to maintain my pace.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Starting off Q2 with a Bang
April 1st was a good day for my stocks, which is good to see after the sideways motion I have seen in my stocks since mid-February. I am now up about 3.1% year-to-date, so I am not doing as well as I would have liked to this point but at least I am well ahead of GIC's / bank interest at this point.
I currently own PN (in buy territory right now, but very thin trader), RCI.b, PMZ.un, MFC, SLW, ENF.un, COS.un, TCM, and HSE. COS and HSE have had a good run the last few days, so it is good to see them making up for some lost time.
PMZ and RCI are in sell territory right now, so I will have my stop losses kicked in if they drop much more on Monday. On the buy side, I have HBU and HGU (gold bullion and gold stocks, respectively), BCE, PN (already own), and S. I am looking to pick up HGU, BCE, and S on Monday, on an uptick.
The market has been generally up for the last month and a half or so, but my stocks have been pretty flat. I am only winning on 4/7 trades so far this year, well below last year's 7/10 when the market picked a direction and stuck with it. I don't even mind if the markets go down really, I just want the markets to pick a direction and to go in that direction for a sustained period of time.
That's it for another week. MJ
I currently own PN (in buy territory right now, but very thin trader), RCI.b, PMZ.un, MFC, SLW, ENF.un, COS.un, TCM, and HSE. COS and HSE have had a good run the last few days, so it is good to see them making up for some lost time.
PMZ and RCI are in sell territory right now, so I will have my stop losses kicked in if they drop much more on Monday. On the buy side, I have HBU and HGU (gold bullion and gold stocks, respectively), BCE, PN (already own), and S. I am looking to pick up HGU, BCE, and S on Monday, on an uptick.
The market has been generally up for the last month and a half or so, but my stocks have been pretty flat. I am only winning on 4/7 trades so far this year, well below last year's 7/10 when the market picked a direction and stuck with it. I don't even mind if the markets go down really, I just want the markets to pick a direction and to go in that direction for a sustained period of time.
That's it for another week. MJ
Friday, March 12, 2010
Friday Night Analysis
I know, I really should get a life - looking at stocks on a Friday night isn't exactly exciting. I plan on heading out soon.
I was down marginally for the week, and I am up just over 3% 2010 YTD. I currently own YLO.UN, PMZ.UN, BIN, HSE, X, HEU, HJU, L, and PN (yes, I should have sold it but I think it is at support so I haven't gotten rid of it yet - damn emotional decisions). The buys for Monday are BIN, X and HSE that I already own, plus ENF.UN, FTT, and TCM - all of which I like as stocks (although that doesn't matter when using moving averages to determine when to buy and sell). ENF.UN is the Enbridge Income Fund, FTT (Finning) is a heavy machinery (CAT) dealer, and TCM (Thomson Creek Minerals) is a molybdenum play (substance that is necessary to produce stainless steel).
The sells for Monday are HGU, ECA, and REI.UN - none of which I own right now.
Half-way through March, I am on track for my goal of a 1% per month return for 2010. The markets are trading pretty much sideways right now, but there are certainly positive pockets to invest in.
I was down marginally for the week, and I am up just over 3% 2010 YTD. I currently own YLO.UN, PMZ.UN, BIN, HSE, X, HEU, HJU, L, and PN (yes, I should have sold it but I think it is at support so I haven't gotten rid of it yet - damn emotional decisions). The buys for Monday are BIN, X and HSE that I already own, plus ENF.UN, FTT, and TCM - all of which I like as stocks (although that doesn't matter when using moving averages to determine when to buy and sell). ENF.UN is the Enbridge Income Fund, FTT (Finning) is a heavy machinery (CAT) dealer, and TCM (Thomson Creek Minerals) is a molybdenum play (substance that is necessary to produce stainless steel).
The sells for Monday are HGU, ECA, and REI.UN - none of which I own right now.
Half-way through March, I am on track for my goal of a 1% per month return for 2010. The markets are trading pretty much sideways right now, but there are certainly positive pockets to invest in.
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Week-end Analysis
It was a pretty good week last week, as I was up almost 1% overall. The economic data seemed to be decent so the markets did well, especially the US markets. Right now, I hold YLO.UN, HGU, HSU, HQU, ENF.UN, ECA, FTT, TCW, T, and PN. I am looking to sell ENF.UN on Monday if it goes down a bit and I am looking at selling PN (the only small-cap stock I follow).
Stocks and ETF's that indicate BUY on Monday include HEU, HJU, ECA, FTT, and MFC. I already own ECA and FTT but I will be putting in stop-buys on the other two. HEU is a bit risky as oil is trading at $80 which is at the top of its recent trading range, but the graphs say buy so I buy. There is still about another 1.00 of upside in HEU so I will buy it on upward momentum. I want to get back into international markets so I don't have problem buying HJU. MFC (Manulife) is not the best financial out there but it has been beaten down pretty well lately, so buying a bit now is okay with me (and I just follow the graphs anyway).
I am up about 1% so far in March and about 3.5% since January 1st. My returns are fluid - when you follow them every day and trade as often as I do - but I am happy with the results so far this year.
Stocks and ETF's that indicate BUY on Monday include HEU, HJU, ECA, FTT, and MFC. I already own ECA and FTT but I will be putting in stop-buys on the other two. HEU is a bit risky as oil is trading at $80 which is at the top of its recent trading range, but the graphs say buy so I buy. There is still about another 1.00 of upside in HEU so I will buy it on upward momentum. I want to get back into international markets so I don't have problem buying HJU. MFC (Manulife) is not the best financial out there but it has been beaten down pretty well lately, so buying a bit now is okay with me (and I just follow the graphs anyway).
I am up about 1% so far in March and about 3.5% since January 1st. My returns are fluid - when you follow them every day and trade as often as I do - but I am happy with the results so far this year.
Thursday, March 4, 2010
The Story for March 4th
Today was pretty much a sideways trading day, although gold and oil did take it on the chin today. Commodities will either come back and I will continue to hold HBU, HGU, G, and HOU or if they go down further they could cross the 40-day moving average and I would have to sell.
The buys for today are HQU, HSU, and ENF.UN that I already own, and TCW that I plan to put in a stop-buy for tonight. I hope to purchase TCW just above its close today of 14.74.
Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.UN) kept chugging along today (up 2.35% today), moving above $6 for the first time in many months. I purchased a bit more today but I see that there was a double-top back in March and May of 2009 in the 6.10 to 6.25 range, so YLO may seem some resistance in this range. If YLO drops back down below 6.00, I will likely sell the additional units that I just purchased today.
The buys for today are HQU, HSU, and ENF.UN that I already own, and TCW that I plan to put in a stop-buy for tonight. I hope to purchase TCW just above its close today of 14.74.
Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.UN) kept chugging along today (up 2.35% today), moving above $6 for the first time in many months. I purchased a bit more today but I see that there was a double-top back in March and May of 2009 in the 6.10 to 6.25 range, so YLO may seem some resistance in this range. If YLO drops back down below 6.00, I will likely sell the additional units that I just purchased today.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Buys for March 3rd
Using the daily price stock chart versus the 40-day moving average, many stocks are in BUY territory tonight. Most of them (HOU, HQU, HSU, ECA, FTT, G, and TRP) I already own, so I don't need to buy more at this point. I do have stop losses in on all of them, though, in case they turn around quickly and move into SELL territory. This is a tricky (and non-ideal) part of my trading strategy that leaves me to the up and down whims of the market, but my inability to watch the markets during the day necessitates this approach. When using stop losses (or stop buys, for that matter), make sure you also put in limits, so you don't buy or sell a stock at ANY price (only within the range that you intend).
There is one new one - HGU (Gold stock ETF) - that I will put in a stop buy tonight to try and buy tomorrow. The price of gold had a great gain today - nice since I bought HBU (the gold bullion ETF) yesterday - and gold stocks are starting to catch up. There is no telling if they will continue to rise or not, but the graphs say to buy, so I will try to buy it.
For February, I ended up about +2.5% for the month. In the last 16 months (from Nov '08 to now), I am up 14 of the months, I am even for 1 and I am down 0.75% for the other. As I have said before, my goal is not only to make money but it is also to not lose money. On a monthly basis, I have had a pretty successful run - I hope it continues.
There is one new one - HGU (Gold stock ETF) - that I will put in a stop buy tonight to try and buy tomorrow. The price of gold had a great gain today - nice since I bought HBU (the gold bullion ETF) yesterday - and gold stocks are starting to catch up. There is no telling if they will continue to rise or not, but the graphs say to buy, so I will try to buy it.
For February, I ended up about +2.5% for the month. In the last 16 months (from Nov '08 to now), I am up 14 of the months, I am even for 1 and I am down 0.75% for the other. As I have said before, my goal is not only to make money but it is also to not lose money. On a monthly basis, I have had a pretty successful run - I hope it continues.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Trying to Explain Things With a Graph
Sorry the graph is so small, but it is the best I could do (if you click on the graph, it should enlarge it so you can read it more easily). At left, you can see a graph that I printed out from my online trading site. It shows the last 12 months for Westjet (WJA) and compares the daily price to the 40-day moving average (MA). On the graph, I have marked each time the lines cross - a buy signal when the daily price goes UP through the 40 MA line and a sell signal when the daily price goes DOWN through the 40-day MA line.
In this example, 5 buy signals, 4 of which are followed by sell signals and the last of which was the last signal (meaning you should still own WJA now, if you use my method). For the five buys, the gains were +.35, +.10, +.80, -.05 (false buy signal), and +2.80 (and still holding). The total gain over the year for these five trades stands at about $4.00 per share. If you had bought and held WJA for the whole year, your gain would have been approximately $2.00 per share.
By holding WJA stock when it is going up and not holding it when it is going down, you could have doubled your return with this stock during the course of the year. The cost to you would have been following the stock on a regular basis and, of course, doing the 9 trades indicated (5 buys and 4 sells).
If you follow 50 securities like I do, and they all trade similarly to this (each one has its own pattern), then you are looking at 450 transactions per year. If you look at approximately 250 trading days per year, this works out to less than 2 transactions per day, so it is not that much work. There are many days when you don't buy or sell any stocks at all.
Again, sorry about the image quality but I hope this second explanation helps.
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