Even though the US stock markets have had a good month, the Canadian stocks weren't quite as possitive for me. For January, I am down slightly (-0.24%, so I am pretty much even). I am currently about 65% invested, so I own quite a few equities but I still have alot of cash on the sidelines.
I currently own BCE, BIN, CCO, CLS, COS, CP, ECA, FM, ENF, HFU, HXU, HSE, MBT, PBN, PGD, PMZ.UN, REI.UN, RUS, S, SC, and T. I am up in all but five of these securities at the moment, and only one of them is down more than $100 total since I purchased it (SC, as it dropped $2 per share when it was announced their CEO would be leaving the company).
I was up on CCO the last couple of days so I just doubled the position today. I have decided that I not only want to sell stocks if they start to go down but I also want to buy more of a stock that is moving up nicely. That means that my initial purchase of a stock is meant to be the first half of the position and the stock performance will determine if I purchase the second half or simply sell the first half. It is naive to think that I will buy stocks and they will always go up right away so this protects me by not investing the full amount. This also makes it easier to invest larger sums of money as my portfolio grows, as I never want to own more than 20 or 25 securities at the most.
For tomorrow, there are a few stocks that are nicely in 'BUY' territory - HQU, AGU, LIF.un, and MFC. I will put in stop buys tonight and pick up any of these stocks / ETF's that continue to rise in the next couple of days (I put my stop buys in for two day expiries now, so I have to do less updates). Oil has had a nice run lately and HOU and CNQ both went into BUY territory today but I wait until the second day in buy territory to buy so I will have to wait on those. I already own HSE, ECA, COS, and PBN so I am already well-positioned to benefit from higher energy prices.
Monday, January 31, 2011
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Another Year Wrapped Up
Well, 2010 is now officially in the books. I ended the year with a 7.7% return for the year - below my original goal of 1% gain per month but ahead of my revised goal of 0.5% gain per month. I finished behind the 2010 gains for the major indices (TSX, S&P, NASDAQ, etc.) but I only averaged an investment rate of about 50% for the year (with the rest in cash at any given time, ready to deploy), so I had an easier time sleeping at night than if I had all my cash invested and had to put up with the big market swings all year. I finished 2010 near my high for the year (up 8%), which I hit on December 30th.
Going into 2011 (Canadian trading to begin on Tuesday, January 4), I am 33% invested with the rest in cash. I currently own ARE, BIN, HSE, OCX, S, SC, TRP, and YLO. For Tuesday, I am looking at more securities that are in BUY territory - HNU, BBD.b, COS.un, ECA, LIF.un, PWF, and QBR.b. I am also looking at CCO, which is already in HOLD territory and the outlook for uranium looks positive for 2011.
I will also deposit $5K into my TSFA account on Tuesday, to get the money in there as soon as I can. It will be the third year that we are eligible to contribute to the TFSA and the third year that I have done so. My original $10K is up to $12,760 so I have over a 25% return so far (I am am sure there are many people with better TFSA returns, but I am happy with this). I know I won't be able to keep this up every year but after 20 years of putting money into the TFSA I hope to have a tidy sum there to augment my RRSP and cash accounts.
Looking back over the last 26 months, I have monthly gains in 21 of those months, I was down in 4 of those months, and I was even for 1. Although I go trade by trade according to the moving average graphs, I do evaluate my performance on both a monthly and yearly basis.
I am still looking to refine my approach somewhat to make the returns even better and to reduce the amount of time I spend on looking at my stocks (even though I only spend 15 minutes per day now). One of the things that I started doing was putting in stop losses to protect gains even when I wasn't near the sell indicator on the graphs.
For January, I plan to ONLY sell when the graphs tell me to and to try to trust the difficulty of getting through the lines to maintain gains. There are many securities that I sold on a gain during weakness that then continued to move up and I never got back into them again. The ETF's for the indices, like HQU, HSU, and HXU are prime examples of this. I made money on them all but I was stopped out of them early and missed subsequent large gains over the coming months. I will evaluate in January how this approach works out for me and report back here.
I wish everyone a profitable 2011 and I hope you had good gains in 2010. If you have any questions or comments, please post them here and I will be happy to respond.
Going into 2011 (Canadian trading to begin on Tuesday, January 4), I am 33% invested with the rest in cash. I currently own ARE, BIN, HSE, OCX, S, SC, TRP, and YLO. For Tuesday, I am looking at more securities that are in BUY territory - HNU, BBD.b, COS.un, ECA, LIF.un, PWF, and QBR.b. I am also looking at CCO, which is already in HOLD territory and the outlook for uranium looks positive for 2011.
I will also deposit $5K into my TSFA account on Tuesday, to get the money in there as soon as I can. It will be the third year that we are eligible to contribute to the TFSA and the third year that I have done so. My original $10K is up to $12,760 so I have over a 25% return so far (I am am sure there are many people with better TFSA returns, but I am happy with this). I know I won't be able to keep this up every year but after 20 years of putting money into the TFSA I hope to have a tidy sum there to augment my RRSP and cash accounts.
Looking back over the last 26 months, I have monthly gains in 21 of those months, I was down in 4 of those months, and I was even for 1. Although I go trade by trade according to the moving average graphs, I do evaluate my performance on both a monthly and yearly basis.
I am still looking to refine my approach somewhat to make the returns even better and to reduce the amount of time I spend on looking at my stocks (even though I only spend 15 minutes per day now). One of the things that I started doing was putting in stop losses to protect gains even when I wasn't near the sell indicator on the graphs.
For January, I plan to ONLY sell when the graphs tell me to and to try to trust the difficulty of getting through the lines to maintain gains. There are many securities that I sold on a gain during weakness that then continued to move up and I never got back into them again. The ETF's for the indices, like HQU, HSU, and HXU are prime examples of this. I made money on them all but I was stopped out of them early and missed subsequent large gains over the coming months. I will evaluate in January how this approach works out for me and report back here.
I wish everyone a profitable 2011 and I hope you had good gains in 2010. If you have any questions or comments, please post them here and I will be happy to respond.
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Merry Christmas Everyone
While Christmas is a great time to spend time with family, it is a pretty boring time for stock trading. With the low volumes last week and more low volumes expected for the upcoming week, things can be pretty slow. That said, the hope for a 'Santa Claus rally' this year is high - given that 3 times out of 4 when the markets are up over 10% so far in the year, the markets gain during this week, averaging a gain of almost 1%. With the markets declining last year in the week following Christmas, it has more people optimistic about this year. For me, the more other people are optimistic the more I am pessimistic, as things never seem to happen if everyone expects it to.
My portfolio was up slightly last week, and I am at a 7.8% return for the year so far. I am behind the major market averages but I didn't have to stomach many of the large swings that the market experienced.
Currently, I am about 56% in securities with the remainder in cash (waiting to be deployed). My current holdings are BIN, ECA, HSE, HSU, OCX, PBN, PWF, S, SC, SLW, T, TCW, TRP, WJA, and YLO. There are a few buys for the market open on Dec 28 - ECA, WJA, and YLO that I already own, and I think I will buy some TCM. Thompson Creek has been performing well lately and since I don't own any I will try to buy some next week, since the current price is pretty close to the 40-day moving average.
One more week (3 days, actually) to go, and we can wrap up our returns for 2010.
My portfolio was up slightly last week, and I am at a 7.8% return for the year so far. I am behind the major market averages but I didn't have to stomach many of the large swings that the market experienced.
Currently, I am about 56% in securities with the remainder in cash (waiting to be deployed). My current holdings are BIN, ECA, HSE, HSU, OCX, PBN, PWF, S, SC, SLW, T, TCW, TRP, WJA, and YLO. There are a few buys for the market open on Dec 28 - ECA, WJA, and YLO that I already own, and I think I will buy some TCM. Thompson Creek has been performing well lately and since I don't own any I will try to buy some next week, since the current price is pretty close to the 40-day moving average.
One more week (3 days, actually) to go, and we can wrap up our returns for 2010.
Friday, December 17, 2010
Less than 2 weeks until the end of 2010...
With the year coming to an end, the evaluation of the returns from 2010 can begin in earnest. Did your portfolio beat the indices? Did you feel confident enough in the markets to leave your money invested through all the ups and downs? Did you take some money out of stocks and put it in bonds instead?
For me, I am at a YTD return of 7.5% so far this year, so I am behind the major indices a bit but I haven't had to stomach much of the roller-coaster ride the markets took (since I am less invested invested in stocks when the market is weak and more invested when it is strong - but rarely ever fully invested).
I didn't buy any fixed income at all - I looked into it but I couldn't find anything guaranteed that would give me more than .5%, even on a $100,000 deposit. So, I decided that it was best for me to leave it in cash, ready to invest in equities when the moving average graphs dictated it.
Right now, I am about 38% invested in equities. They include BIN, HSE, OCX, OSK, PWF, QBR.B, S, T, TCW, TRP and YLO (about half of which I only bought yesterday and today). All signs point to the markets moving upward but I am always skeptical when everyone seems to agree on the direction that the market will take (it usually goes the other way). I will keep following the moving averages, buying and selling as they indicate, so I may very well be buying more equities on Monday.
Most of the ETF's that I follow (for commodities and the market indices) are in the 'hold' territory but I don't currently own any of them since I got stopped out on temporary weakness. This has me re-thinking my practice of putting in manual trailing stops and thinking about strictly sticking to the moving averages to sell. This is hard to do, however, as you often have to watch your gains evaporate before things move back up again.
I started the year with the goal of achieving a return of 1% per month, or 12% for the year, and I won't hit that target. It does look like I will hit my revised goal of 0.5% per month (or 6% return for the year, and I may even hit 8% if the year ends well.
I likely won't post again before the end of 2010 but I may post if I get some time over the holidays. In any case, I will try to post early in the New Year to summarize my 2010 results.
For me, I am at a YTD return of 7.5% so far this year, so I am behind the major indices a bit but I haven't had to stomach much of the roller-coaster ride the markets took (since I am less invested invested in stocks when the market is weak and more invested when it is strong - but rarely ever fully invested).
I didn't buy any fixed income at all - I looked into it but I couldn't find anything guaranteed that would give me more than .5%, even on a $100,000 deposit. So, I decided that it was best for me to leave it in cash, ready to invest in equities when the moving average graphs dictated it.
Right now, I am about 38% invested in equities. They include BIN, HSE, OCX, OSK, PWF, QBR.B, S, T, TCW, TRP and YLO (about half of which I only bought yesterday and today). All signs point to the markets moving upward but I am always skeptical when everyone seems to agree on the direction that the market will take (it usually goes the other way). I will keep following the moving averages, buying and selling as they indicate, so I may very well be buying more equities on Monday.
Most of the ETF's that I follow (for commodities and the market indices) are in the 'hold' territory but I don't currently own any of them since I got stopped out on temporary weakness. This has me re-thinking my practice of putting in manual trailing stops and thinking about strictly sticking to the moving averages to sell. This is hard to do, however, as you often have to watch your gains evaporate before things move back up again.
I started the year with the goal of achieving a return of 1% per month, or 12% for the year, and I won't hit that target. It does look like I will hit my revised goal of 0.5% per month (or 6% return for the year, and I may even hit 8% if the year ends well.
I likely won't post again before the end of 2010 but I may post if I get some time over the holidays. In any case, I will try to post early in the New Year to summarize my 2010 results.
Sunday, December 5, 2010
Will there be a Santa Claus Rally this year?
As we approach the end of 2010, I am sitting at a YTD overall return of 6.3%. After it was clear that I would not reach my goal of a 1% per month return, and I lowered my goal to 1/2% per month, it would seem that I am on track to reach that goal (but the year is not over yet).
I am currently about 61% invested in securities (the rest in cash). I currently hold the following ETFs and stocks: BCE, FTT, HEU, HFU, HQU, HSU, HXU, PWF, QBR.B, RUS, SLW, SU, YLO, ENF.UN and PMZ.UN.
I am sorry to say that I was holding COS.un on Friday when they announced their distribution cut and the gap down at the open went below my stop loss so I lost quite a bit there. I sold out near the end of the day, due to the uncertainty that they face moving into 2011. It will, no doubt, recover somewhat but I don't want to hold it any more.
I am looking at a few securities for Monday - HJU, HNU (although investing in natural gas is not for the faint of heart), and CP. I still want to be invested these days since bad news (mostly about European debt) has not been crushing the market lately as much as it had before. That seems to indicate market strength, to some extent, although I am still only relying on the moving average graphs to decide what to buy and how long to hold it. I still don't rely much on market news at all, although good news (or the lack of bad news) can certainly help you sleep at night.
While 2010 hasn't been spectacular, most of the markets have done reasonably well so I don't expect alot of tax-loss selling at the end of the year. This should help the markets close out the year strong and move into the early part of 2011 in good shape.
We will see what the next few weeks hold, to see how our final 2010 numbers look.
I am currently about 61% invested in securities (the rest in cash). I currently hold the following ETFs and stocks: BCE, FTT, HEU, HFU, HQU, HSU, HXU, PWF, QBR.B, RUS, SLW, SU, YLO, ENF.UN and PMZ.UN.
I am sorry to say that I was holding COS.un on Friday when they announced their distribution cut and the gap down at the open went below my stop loss so I lost quite a bit there. I sold out near the end of the day, due to the uncertainty that they face moving into 2011. It will, no doubt, recover somewhat but I don't want to hold it any more.
I am looking at a few securities for Monday - HJU, HNU (although investing in natural gas is not for the faint of heart), and CP. I still want to be invested these days since bad news (mostly about European debt) has not been crushing the market lately as much as it had before. That seems to indicate market strength, to some extent, although I am still only relying on the moving average graphs to decide what to buy and how long to hold it. I still don't rely much on market news at all, although good news (or the lack of bad news) can certainly help you sleep at night.
While 2010 hasn't been spectacular, most of the markets have done reasonably well so I don't expect alot of tax-loss selling at the end of the year. This should help the markets close out the year strong and move into the early part of 2011 in good shape.
We will see what the next few weeks hold, to see how our final 2010 numbers look.
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Still in The Game
Sorry for not posting in awhile but other priorities came up (work, personal life, vacation, etc.). I have been following the moving averages all this time and have been getting in and out of stocks. Except for a tough time in a correction in August, things have gone quite well. I am not sure if I am outperforming the market averages or not (don't think I am) but I know I wouldn't have been able to sleep if I was simply fully invested in ETF's that follow the market averages, so that is the trade-off that I am willing to make.
Year to date, I am up 6.3% overall in my accounts, so I can't complain about that, given all the doom and gloom and uncertainty in the investing news every day. I am not sure how long the current rally will last but if it goes into December then there is a good chance it will turn into a semi-regular 'Santa Claus' rally and this usually continues at least into mid-January. I am not sure if it will last this long but I am prepared to be invested fairly heavily if it does.
I was up 1.8% this past week overall, on the strengths of gold and silver, among other things. I sold some securities on Friday, as I had stop-lossed big gains from Thursday to lock them in. I will buy them back if the markets continue to climb (I already bought back HGU, for example, but haven't yet bought back SLW, that had a great ride in a short timeframe).
I currently hold some trusts - BTE.UN, COS.UN, EXE.UN, and MSI.UN, some trusts - HFU and HGU, and some stocks - BBD.B, CNQ, FTT, L, MBT, QBR.B, SC, SNC, and THI. I am 60% invested at this point, and I will buy more or sell more depending on the direction of the markets.
There are some BUYS on Monday, like BBD.B and MBT, but I already own those stocks. Telus (T) is also a buy, and I will buy it on Monday if it is strong in the morning (don't want it to drop back down into DON'T HOLD territory right after I buy it).
I would be interested to hear how the rest of you are doing, and if anyone has incorporated moving averages into their investing strategy.
Year to date, I am up 6.3% overall in my accounts, so I can't complain about that, given all the doom and gloom and uncertainty in the investing news every day. I am not sure how long the current rally will last but if it goes into December then there is a good chance it will turn into a semi-regular 'Santa Claus' rally and this usually continues at least into mid-January. I am not sure if it will last this long but I am prepared to be invested fairly heavily if it does.
I was up 1.8% this past week overall, on the strengths of gold and silver, among other things. I sold some securities on Friday, as I had stop-lossed big gains from Thursday to lock them in. I will buy them back if the markets continue to climb (I already bought back HGU, for example, but haven't yet bought back SLW, that had a great ride in a short timeframe).
I currently hold some trusts - BTE.UN, COS.UN, EXE.UN, and MSI.UN, some trusts - HFU and HGU, and some stocks - BBD.B, CNQ, FTT, L, MBT, QBR.B, SC, SNC, and THI. I am 60% invested at this point, and I will buy more or sell more depending on the direction of the markets.
There are some BUYS on Monday, like BBD.B and MBT, but I already own those stocks. Telus (T) is also a buy, and I will buy it on Monday if it is strong in the morning (don't want it to drop back down into DON'T HOLD territory right after I buy it).
I would be interested to hear how the rest of you are doing, and if anyone has incorporated moving averages into their investing strategy.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Mid-Summer Market Doldrums
Well, I hope everyone is having a nice summer. The volatile markets are very frustrating these days, especially with the correction recently that presented a good buying opportunity for the brave (I am not always brave, especially after 2008).
I am still following the moving average graphs and I am pretty heavily invested right now, given the market instability - I am about 75% in stocks right now, with the remainder in cash (although I am looking to buy more this coming week).
Earnings have been looking pretty steady so far, and the worries in Europe seem to have subsided for the most part. Also, China seems to be back buying commodities again (just look at potash companies last week) so that is a good sign as well. With more positive earnings this week (I think that about 25% of the S&P reports this week), hopefully the strong markets continue.
Currently, I am in AGU, ARE, BCE, CCO, CNQ, CP, FM, FTT, HSE, RCI.B, RUS, SC, SNC, TRP, X, WJA, BTE.UN, and YLO.UN. All of these securities are in the 'hold' range (current price above the 40-day moving average) except for YLO.UN which I am keeping for the exceptional yield.
I am looking at picking up some more securities this coming week that only moved into buy territory late last week. These include HQU (Nasdaq ETF), HSU (US S&P ETF), EXE.UN (Extendicare), PWF (Power Financial), S (Sherritt), and SU (Suncor). As I mentioned in a previous post, I now wait until the SECOND day that a security is in the buy territory before I buy, to try to cut down on false buys (quick stock turnarounds). There are other stocks in their first day of buying (BBD.B, LIF.UN, and more) but I will wait for confirmation to buy them.
In any case, I am heavily invested right now so I don't have too many more stocks to buy anyway. I already own 18 individual securities and I don't want to go above 25 or so, so I will either leave the remaining funds in cash or I will purchase more of something I already own.
Year-to-date, I am at 3.5% return (not my high of the year, but close), which is not too bad given the overall market returns so far this year. I am well ahead of the .5% or so that I would have received in even the highest money market funds and I don't wish to lock in my money into anything longer just to get an extra percent or two in return.
Here's to a continuing strong earnings season, and let's hope we get a nice summer rally before all the traders get back in September so we can really make some gains in the last 4 months of the year.
I am still following the moving average graphs and I am pretty heavily invested right now, given the market instability - I am about 75% in stocks right now, with the remainder in cash (although I am looking to buy more this coming week).
Earnings have been looking pretty steady so far, and the worries in Europe seem to have subsided for the most part. Also, China seems to be back buying commodities again (just look at potash companies last week) so that is a good sign as well. With more positive earnings this week (I think that about 25% of the S&P reports this week), hopefully the strong markets continue.
Currently, I am in AGU, ARE, BCE, CCO, CNQ, CP, FM, FTT, HSE, RCI.B, RUS, SC, SNC, TRP, X, WJA, BTE.UN, and YLO.UN. All of these securities are in the 'hold' range (current price above the 40-day moving average) except for YLO.UN which I am keeping for the exceptional yield.
I am looking at picking up some more securities this coming week that only moved into buy territory late last week. These include HQU (Nasdaq ETF), HSU (US S&P ETF), EXE.UN (Extendicare), PWF (Power Financial), S (Sherritt), and SU (Suncor). As I mentioned in a previous post, I now wait until the SECOND day that a security is in the buy territory before I buy, to try to cut down on false buys (quick stock turnarounds). There are other stocks in their first day of buying (BBD.B, LIF.UN, and more) but I will wait for confirmation to buy them.
In any case, I am heavily invested right now so I don't have too many more stocks to buy anyway. I already own 18 individual securities and I don't want to go above 25 or so, so I will either leave the remaining funds in cash or I will purchase more of something I already own.
Year-to-date, I am at 3.5% return (not my high of the year, but close), which is not too bad given the overall market returns so far this year. I am well ahead of the .5% or so that I would have received in even the highest money market funds and I don't wish to lock in my money into anything longer just to get an extra percent or two in return.
Here's to a continuing strong earnings season, and let's hope we get a nice summer rally before all the traders get back in September so we can really make some gains in the last 4 months of the year.
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