As you know from my earlier posts, I have been expecting a correction of some sort in October, and the 4.1% decline in the TSX this past week seems to be the beginning of that. Consumer confidence is down, and even though GDP is up in Canada and the US, that is likely the result of all the government stimulus and not any real improvement in the economy.
I had been gradually reducing my holdings all summer, and I actually sold the last of my stocks (MSI.UN, TRP, and YLO.un) on Thursday. Late Thursday, I actually bought HXD (TSX double down ETF) and HGD (Gold stocks double down ETF) and held them throughout most of Friday's big plunge (the moving average lines said to buy them, so I did, but I got nervous and sold them after making a bit of cash). I sold them before the end of the day, so I actually am 100% in cash right now.
I am not getting any interest at all in my accounts, so I admit that this investing strategy is not brilliant, but I am in capital preservation mode right now, so this helps me sleep at night. If none of the so-called experts knows where the market is heading right now, then how are small investors like me (us) supposed to make investing decisions?
I am still looking at safe ways to make a guaranteed return, and I may just open a high-interest savings account, to I don't tie up my money. High interest is a bit of a misnomer here, as I think I can only get .75% to 1.0% on my money right now, but I can access it any time and transfer it to my trading accounts if I decide to get back into the market on a large scale. This is only my non-RRSP money, and I will use my RRSP accounts first, when I decide to get back into securities (since the gains are tax-deferred).
There are some things I am looking to buy next week, but most of them are the 'down' ETF's. I use the Horizon Betapro 'double' ETF's. The ones that are a buy (or hold) for early next week are HED (energy), HFD (financials), HGD (gold stocks), HQD (Nasdaq), HSD (S&P in the US), and HXD (TSX). Remember, all of these ETF's go UP if there underlying areas go DOWN. I will warn you that if you are wrong on the down ETF's, it does give you a sick feeling when you lose money when the market is actually going UP.
Even with the TSX going down over 4% this past week, and other indices declining as well, it was a break-even week for me since I had the down ETF's.
Well, that is enough for today. Good luck next week, and let's hope the market finds some direction soon (up OR down, I don't care).
Saturday, October 31, 2009
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Weekly Update (and the ever-climbing market)
Well, another week has passed and the market correction hasn't happened yet. Earnings last week weren't spectacular but they weren't bad enough to bring the market down, as everyone seems to be waiting for.
Many stocks that I watch continue to move sideways but I continue to buy and sell as the graphs tell me to. I can't give up my method now, but I will admit it gets frustrating when you have to sell a stock a day or two after you buy it.
I am currently in a couple of ETF's - HBU (Gold bullion) and HFU (Financials), and many stocks - AGU (Agrium), FTT (Finning), MFC (Manulife), MSI.un (Morneau Sobeco), PDP (Prolifera), PWF (Power Financial), TCM (Thompson Creek Metals), and YLO.un (Yellow Pages).
I am 24.5% invested right now, with the balance in cash. I really hate getting no interest on the cash but I haven't found anything that is safe and worthwhile, at this point. If anyone has any suggestions that can get me at least a few percent interest and no, or very little downside, please let me know.
I am up 51.4% for the year so far, although I am down a bit in October. I have been positive every month since last November (there, I probably jinxed myself now), so I would like to continue that streak. The best I could likely hope for at this point is a nice little pullback - I would sell the securities I hold right now, then buy back in when the market resumes its upwards push. There is still lots of cash on the sidelines (including mine) waiting to get into this market, but I don't feel comfortable putting much more in at this point.
For Monday, I am looking to perhaps sell MFC, HFU, PWF, and TCM if they move downwards on Monday, as they are all right at the sell line right now. On the other hand, I am looking to pick up some THI (Tim Horton's), TRP (TransCanada Pipelines), and maybe some more PDP (Prolifera, to lower my average cost) on Monday, as they have all just cross upwards into buy territory.
Thus, the game continues...
Many stocks that I watch continue to move sideways but I continue to buy and sell as the graphs tell me to. I can't give up my method now, but I will admit it gets frustrating when you have to sell a stock a day or two after you buy it.
I am currently in a couple of ETF's - HBU (Gold bullion) and HFU (Financials), and many stocks - AGU (Agrium), FTT (Finning), MFC (Manulife), MSI.un (Morneau Sobeco), PDP (Prolifera), PWF (Power Financial), TCM (Thompson Creek Metals), and YLO.un (Yellow Pages).
I am 24.5% invested right now, with the balance in cash. I really hate getting no interest on the cash but I haven't found anything that is safe and worthwhile, at this point. If anyone has any suggestions that can get me at least a few percent interest and no, or very little downside, please let me know.
I am up 51.4% for the year so far, although I am down a bit in October. I have been positive every month since last November (there, I probably jinxed myself now), so I would like to continue that streak. The best I could likely hope for at this point is a nice little pullback - I would sell the securities I hold right now, then buy back in when the market resumes its upwards push. There is still lots of cash on the sidelines (including mine) waiting to get into this market, but I don't feel comfortable putting much more in at this point.
For Monday, I am looking to perhaps sell MFC, HFU, PWF, and TCM if they move downwards on Monday, as they are all right at the sell line right now. On the other hand, I am looking to pick up some THI (Tim Horton's), TRP (TransCanada Pipelines), and maybe some more PDP (Prolifera, to lower my average cost) on Monday, as they have all just cross upwards into buy territory.
Thus, the game continues...
Monday, October 12, 2009
Back to the Blog...
Sorry I haven't updated lately, but there is lots going on (outside of stocks). I have been buying and selling over the last few weeks, as the moving average lines have indicated that I do. I rode up Gold in the HGU (would have been better in the HBU), and I made some money on energy in the HEU.
Right now, I hold Manitoba Tel (MBT), BCE Inc (BCE), Finning Int's (FTT), Manulife (MFC), Prolifera (PDP), and Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.un). I have less YLO than I have in the past, as I sold into strength on its 15% run in September, and I have PDP as a speculative stock (although I am still following the lines and they said to buy). I try to stick with blue chip stocks but I still follow a couple of spec stocks from my past.
I may have to sell BCE and MBT on Tuesday, as they are in 'Sell' territory, although MBT is at its support level around $32. I will sell it if it drops much more. Also, FTT and MFC at at 'Buy' (I bought them late last week), which means they could quickly become 'Sells' if the market drops this week.
I am watching a few stocks and ETF's to buy on Tuesday - HFU (Financial 2X ETF), HOU (Oil 2X ETF), AGU (Agrium - fertilizer, etc.), HSE (Husky), MSI.un (Morneau Sobeco income fund). I will put in stop-buys on all of these securities today and pick them up tomorrow if their prices strengthen a bit. I like to buy stocks on upward momentum, not only in the graphs but also on the day I actually buy them.
YTD, I am up 51.4% for the year. I have been positive (by at least a little bit) every month since last November. I am a little bit negative so far in October, but it is early in the month. I am still chipping away at the loss I had on the first of the month. I am still expecting the market to pull back, sometime soon, as investors lock in some of their profits, but I will continue to follow the graphs until that happens. Earnings have been fairly strong lately, and a few US banks report this week so that will show us how the financials are doing.
I am just under 14% invested (in stocks and ETF's) right now, with the remainder in cash. I looked for money market funds and other 'safe' investments for my cash but the return is so low, I am just choosing to leave it in cash. This way, I lock in my gains from earlier in the year, I won't lose a significant amount in any correction, and I have lots of cash ready to buy stocks and ETF's on the next leg up.
Right now, I hold Manitoba Tel (MBT), BCE Inc (BCE), Finning Int's (FTT), Manulife (MFC), Prolifera (PDP), and Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.un). I have less YLO than I have in the past, as I sold into strength on its 15% run in September, and I have PDP as a speculative stock (although I am still following the lines and they said to buy). I try to stick with blue chip stocks but I still follow a couple of spec stocks from my past.
I may have to sell BCE and MBT on Tuesday, as they are in 'Sell' territory, although MBT is at its support level around $32. I will sell it if it drops much more. Also, FTT and MFC at at 'Buy' (I bought them late last week), which means they could quickly become 'Sells' if the market drops this week.
I am watching a few stocks and ETF's to buy on Tuesday - HFU (Financial 2X ETF), HOU (Oil 2X ETF), AGU (Agrium - fertilizer, etc.), HSE (Husky), MSI.un (Morneau Sobeco income fund). I will put in stop-buys on all of these securities today and pick them up tomorrow if their prices strengthen a bit. I like to buy stocks on upward momentum, not only in the graphs but also on the day I actually buy them.
YTD, I am up 51.4% for the year. I have been positive (by at least a little bit) every month since last November. I am a little bit negative so far in October, but it is early in the month. I am still chipping away at the loss I had on the first of the month. I am still expecting the market to pull back, sometime soon, as investors lock in some of their profits, but I will continue to follow the graphs until that happens. Earnings have been fairly strong lately, and a few US banks report this week so that will show us how the financials are doing.
I am just under 14% invested (in stocks and ETF's) right now, with the remainder in cash. I looked for money market funds and other 'safe' investments for my cash but the return is so low, I am just choosing to leave it in cash. This way, I lock in my gains from earlier in the year, I won't lose a significant amount in any correction, and I have lots of cash ready to buy stocks and ETF's on the next leg up.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Weekly Summary
It has been a busy week for me (outside of stocks), but I still managed to make a little bit of money (up .7% on the week). That doesn't seem like much, but you have to remember that I am only 15 - 20 % invested right now, with the rest in cash. I am still waiting for the Sept - Oct correction to start, but who knows, it may not come at all...
I would have to say that my latest 'favourite' equity is the Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.un), of all things (I don't really have favourites, as I try to keep emotion out of stocks, but it looks solid to me). I had first bought some units back on Sept 8, but I bought many more units this week, as the unit price looks stable, it was paying a distribution rate of almost 16%, and their latest financials seemed to show that they were getting their shit together in their move towards digital and away from the old yellow phone books (and they are profitable, from what I could see).
YLO.un jumped 3.5% today alone, for some reason. No recent news that I can find, but I guess the selling finally subsided (the buying has always been there). We will have to see if we get some news next week, and if today's gains hold, but today was certainly a good sign. Personally, I am expecting YLO.un to return to the $6 - 7 level, but that is just me. I am in below $5, so if the distribution stays strong, I am getting paid 16% or so to wait. I read today that they are only paying out 60% as distributions so that should be easily sustainable, especially if they are getting their shit together.
As of today, I own YLO.un, MBT (Manitoba Telecom), RCI.B (Rogers Comm.), HSU (S&P ETF), and PWF (Power Financial). Some of the stocks that I am keeping an eye on (to buy) for next week include HSE (Husky), WJA (Westjet), and Enbridge (ENF.un) although these all have to rise a bit before I will grab them. My return YTD is 52.8%.
I would have to say that my latest 'favourite' equity is the Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.un), of all things (I don't really have favourites, as I try to keep emotion out of stocks, but it looks solid to me). I had first bought some units back on Sept 8, but I bought many more units this week, as the unit price looks stable, it was paying a distribution rate of almost 16%, and their latest financials seemed to show that they were getting their shit together in their move towards digital and away from the old yellow phone books (and they are profitable, from what I could see).
YLO.un jumped 3.5% today alone, for some reason. No recent news that I can find, but I guess the selling finally subsided (the buying has always been there). We will have to see if we get some news next week, and if today's gains hold, but today was certainly a good sign. Personally, I am expecting YLO.un to return to the $6 - 7 level, but that is just me. I am in below $5, so if the distribution stays strong, I am getting paid 16% or so to wait. I read today that they are only paying out 60% as distributions so that should be easily sustainable, especially if they are getting their shit together.
As of today, I own YLO.un, MBT (Manitoba Telecom), RCI.B (Rogers Comm.), HSU (S&P ETF), and PWF (Power Financial). Some of the stocks that I am keeping an eye on (to buy) for next week include HSE (Husky), WJA (Westjet), and Enbridge (ENF.un) although these all have to rise a bit before I will grab them. My return YTD is 52.8%.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Another Week Comes to an End
It turned out to be a pretty good week on the markets, especially for natural gas, but the key theme seemed to be volatility. Even though I use the graphs to decide when to buy and sell, in general, I seem to be taking profits more quickly these days than I normally do. For example, when Encana announced they were going ahead with plans to split into two companies - estimated to be worth $65 separately - I sold when the stock jumped to $63. I reasoned that the jump was more than I had planned to make in that short time, and that either natural gas or Encana itself could easily weaken next week.
Today, to close the week, I sold ECA, RUS, BTE.un, and ENF.un. The one of these that I regretted the most was Baytex (BTE.UN) but the drop in the price of oil of over $2.60 per barrel made me think that weakness could be on the way for oil stocks.
I still own a few equities - RCI.B (Rogers Communications), HFU (Financial ETF), MBT (Manitoba Telecom), COS.UN (Canadian Oilsands), and YLO.UN (Yellow Pages Income Fund). With the volatile markets, I like the idea of collecting distributions from trusts but the loss that I could easily incur in the unit price could easily outpace the distributions that I would be paid. I don't want to let the potential distributions sidetrack me from my strategy.
I am up a collective 51.5% YTD on all my accounts, so I am certainly happy with that. Also, I have not had a negative month since October 2008 (although it was a HUGE down month), so I have a good string of positive months going. The summer was slow, but things seem to be picking up a bit now that traders are back from summer vacation.
I am still expecting a 5 - 15% correction in the markets, to consolidate support, in the next couple of months.
On a separate note, I opened a TSFA last month at TD, so I want to choose an equity to invest in there. I want to grow that as much as possible, since it is tax free. With $29 buy and sell fees, though, and only a $5,000 initial balance, I want to choose the equity carefully.
Today, to close the week, I sold ECA, RUS, BTE.un, and ENF.un. The one of these that I regretted the most was Baytex (BTE.UN) but the drop in the price of oil of over $2.60 per barrel made me think that weakness could be on the way for oil stocks.
I still own a few equities - RCI.B (Rogers Communications), HFU (Financial ETF), MBT (Manitoba Telecom), COS.UN (Canadian Oilsands), and YLO.UN (Yellow Pages Income Fund). With the volatile markets, I like the idea of collecting distributions from trusts but the loss that I could easily incur in the unit price could easily outpace the distributions that I would be paid. I don't want to let the potential distributions sidetrack me from my strategy.
I am up a collective 51.5% YTD on all my accounts, so I am certainly happy with that. Also, I have not had a negative month since October 2008 (although it was a HUGE down month), so I have a good string of positive months going. The summer was slow, but things seem to be picking up a bit now that traders are back from summer vacation.
I am still expecting a 5 - 15% correction in the markets, to consolidate support, in the next couple of months.
On a separate note, I opened a TSFA last month at TD, so I want to choose an equity to invest in there. I want to grow that as much as possible, since it is tax free. With $29 buy and sell fees, though, and only a $5,000 initial balance, I want to choose the equity carefully.
Monday, September 7, 2009
Weekly Update
The markets are continuing to move basically sideways, but I am still following the moving average rules and jumping in when the graphs tell me to. On Friday, I added HJU (Horizons Emerging Markets), HSU (Horizon US S&P 500), BTE.un (Baytex Energy) and PWF (Power Financial). I bought them all on upswings and 3 of them finished up for the day.
In addition to the holdings I added on Friday, I also currently own RUS (Russel Metals), MBT (Manitoba Telecom), TRP (TransCanada Pipelines), TCW (Trican Well Services), and HBU (Horizons Gold Bullion).
As I have posted earlier, I am still expecting a 5 - 15% pullback this month or next so I am ready to liquidate again, when the graphs tell me to. Currently, I am 26% invested in stocks (the rest in cash) and I am up 49.8% YTD. When the correction starts (if it does), I will stand to take some losses, but I can't make money if I am not in the market, at least to some extent. I have been as low as 3.5% in stocks this summer, and as high as 50%, and I expect my ratio to fluctuate with the markets. I tend to buy on the way up and sell on the way down, so I will keep posting my moves to detail my progress.
In addition to the holdings I added on Friday, I also currently own RUS (Russel Metals), MBT (Manitoba Telecom), TRP (TransCanada Pipelines), TCW (Trican Well Services), and HBU (Horizons Gold Bullion).
As I have posted earlier, I am still expecting a 5 - 15% pullback this month or next so I am ready to liquidate again, when the graphs tell me to. Currently, I am 26% invested in stocks (the rest in cash) and I am up 49.8% YTD. When the correction starts (if it does), I will stand to take some losses, but I can't make money if I am not in the market, at least to some extent. I have been as low as 3.5% in stocks this summer, and as high as 50%, and I expect my ratio to fluctuate with the markets. I tend to buy on the way up and sell on the way down, so I will keep posting my moves to detail my progress.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
The End of Another Week
For the most part, the market moved sideways this week, which is bad for me. I don't really care which direction it goes - I just want it to pick a direction and keep going that way (although up IS easier, and easier to stomach).
I ended the week owning the ETF's HOU (oil) and HBU (gold bullion) and the stocks TCM, MBT, LIF.un, ECA, TRP, and PWF. Two of these stocks - TCM and MBT are in 'don't buy' territory, but they both appear to have very good support at their current levels. MBT has hit $32 a few times and has not gone below (plus they are a regional telcom and a good takeover target for the big boys) and TCM just announced a big financing at $14, so it shouldn't drop much below its current level around $13 (and shouldn't really have dropped that far in the first place).
For Monday next week, I am looking at new buys RCI.b, TCW, HGU (gold stock ETF), and HEU (energy ETF). I will get into the ones that open strong on Monday. I am also keeping a close eye on LIF.un, TCM and MBT, as they are all below their 40-day moving averages ('don't hold' territory, for my trading rules).
I am about 21% in stocks right now (the rest in cash), since I am still expecting a pullback of 5 - 15% in the fall. As long as the indicators say to buy, though, I am comfortable adding to my portfolio with the stocks mentioned above. I don't want to miss a big upmove in the market, which could come right before the correction I am expecting.
I ended the week owning the ETF's HOU (oil) and HBU (gold bullion) and the stocks TCM, MBT, LIF.un, ECA, TRP, and PWF. Two of these stocks - TCM and MBT are in 'don't buy' territory, but they both appear to have very good support at their current levels. MBT has hit $32 a few times and has not gone below (plus they are a regional telcom and a good takeover target for the big boys) and TCM just announced a big financing at $14, so it shouldn't drop much below its current level around $13 (and shouldn't really have dropped that far in the first place).
For Monday next week, I am looking at new buys RCI.b, TCW, HGU (gold stock ETF), and HEU (energy ETF). I will get into the ones that open strong on Monday. I am also keeping a close eye on LIF.un, TCM and MBT, as they are all below their 40-day moving averages ('don't hold' territory, for my trading rules).
I am about 21% in stocks right now (the rest in cash), since I am still expecting a pullback of 5 - 15% in the fall. As long as the indicators say to buy, though, I am comfortable adding to my portfolio with the stocks mentioned above. I don't want to miss a big upmove in the market, which could come right before the correction I am expecting.
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