As you know, I had jumped back into Yellow Pages - I made some quick money then got stopped out as the price settled back for a couple of days. It looked like I might be able to buy it back at lower prices until Friday, when it jumped again. If Yellow Pages passes through $7, I will likely buy back in with a plan to ride it to $8 and beyond.
Now, for what I actually DO own right now. I own BCE, HGU (gold stock bull ETF), ENF.un (Enbridge), L (Loblaw), SNC, REI.un (RioCan), RCI.b (Rogers), THI (Tim Horton's), and TRP (TransCanada Pipelines). I am about 26% invested in securities right now, with the rest in cash. I expect a pullback soon (likely 8 - 12%) and then probably a slow summer (as per normal), so I am a bit worried about getting too heavily invested. I actually don't mind a pullback, especially if it is a prolonged downturn, since I will simply move to the 'Down' ETF's, that rise in price when their underlying market or sector drops in price.
Also, since I follow the graphs, I have to wait until they tell me to buy a stock before I proceed. Many of the stocks I follow are in 'Hold' territory but I don't own them, mostly since I got stopped out on them while protecting gains. It makes it hard to buy back into these securities when they continue to go up later.
As for buys that are coming up on Monday, there are a few that I already own such as BCE, SNC, and TRP - I only recently bought them and they are still buys now, being just above the 40-day moving average. If they turn back negative and go back below the line, I have to be ready to unload them.
There are other buys as well, such as HOU (oil stock bull ETF), BTE.un (my favourite oil and gas trust), and G (Goldcorp). I will be putting in stop-buys for BTE.un and G but I don't want to buy HOU at this time as oil prices are already at a long-time high (and I DO consider other factors sometimes when buying stocks, not just the moving averages). I will be buying BTE.un, however, so I will have some exposure to oil prices anyway (and I also own Enbridge and TransCanada, which are in sectors that are related to oil).
I have been watching natural gas lately, and it is due for a price rebound, especially if there is a warm summer in the US and Canada. The shale gas plays, along with LNG from outside North America, has been driving down natural gas prices to ridiculously low levels, but I don't want to jump in too soon and get burned on a further drop. I plan to play natural gas through HNU (natural gas ETF), and it is in 'Buy Soon' territory, so a couple of up days in natural gas and I would have to jump in. Timing on this is very important since natural gas prices are so volatile, so I have to be ready to jump back out again at any time.
I was up for the fourth straight week this week, and I am now at 4.2% year-to-date, so I am on pace for my goal of a 1% gain per month for the year. Certainly not as exciting as the 50% gain that I achieved last year, but certainly more realistic given normal market conditions. I hope to make some gains in the next few weeks before the expected summer slow down after May ends.
If anyone is still reading my posts and has any questions about a stock they follow or has some feedback as to how they have used any of my method in their own investing, I would love to hear it so drop me a line.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Mid-April Update
I am glad I got back into YLO in the mid to low 6.30's, as it recovered to end the week over 6.40 and I think it will go much higher (I am predicting at least $9 before the end of 2010, but time will tell on that one).
Currently, I am also in just a few stocks - YLO.un, ENF.un (Enbridge Income Fund), G (Goldcorp), SNC (SNC Lavalin), L (Loblaw), and BIN (BFI Canada). I will probably have to lighten the load on Monday, though, as both G and SNC at at sell levels and L may be there in another day or two. Stock markets have done well lately, in general, but some bad news late last week may turn them negatively for a while. In any case, I just continue to follow the graphs.
I am up 3.7% year-to-date, so I am still on track for my target of a 1% gain per month (minimum) for the year. I expect the summer months to be slow, as they typically are, so I need to get some gains in April and May to set myself up for the rest of the year.
Currently, I am also in just a few stocks - YLO.un, ENF.un (Enbridge Income Fund), G (Goldcorp), SNC (SNC Lavalin), L (Loblaw), and BIN (BFI Canada). I will probably have to lighten the load on Monday, though, as both G and SNC at at sell levels and L may be there in another day or two. Stock markets have done well lately, in general, but some bad news late last week may turn them negatively for a while. In any case, I just continue to follow the graphs.
I am up 3.7% year-to-date, so I am still on track for my target of a 1% gain per month (minimum) for the year. I expect the summer months to be slow, as they typically are, so I need to get some gains in April and May to set myself up for the rest of the year.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Back Into the Yellow Pages Again
As I have written, I don't strictly follow the buy / sell lines, as I do set stop losses to protect gains once a stock I own has gone up. Due to this, I was stopped out of Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.un) - a trust that I didn't really want to sell due to its turnaround, good momentum, and great yield. Well, I got back into some YLO last week, just ahead of the big jump on Friday. I had noticed that it seemed to have a double or triple top at 6.25 to 6.30, meaning that it hadn't been able to get through that level on earlier attempts. Once I saw that YLO had cleared the 6.35 level, I bought a few thousand shares. I think that the unit price will continue to climb (or stay steady at least), and the monthly yield is still over 12%.
Currnently, I also own BCE, BIN, G, MFC, and ENF.un - all good companies and leaders in their respective fields. There aren't any more that I am looking to buy on Monday, although I may add more YLO if it clears 6.70 or so.
The markets look a little lofty right now, but I see that the Greece bailout deal was agreed to this weekend so the markets should respond favourable to that. I still think there will be a correction coming soon (the markets, especially in the US have had a good month-long run with no really good reason), so I am reluctant to get too deeply invested. I think that investors are getting lulled into thinking that things are good when they really aren't all that good. Sure, things are better than they were last year, but last year was one of the worst years ever, so that was not a very high bar to beat. Relatively better is not necessarily good enough - things need to actually BE better, and employment and other ecomonic news is not great yet.
YTD, I am up 3.4% so I am back on pace for my 1% per month target for the year. I expect things to slow down between May and September as it usually does so I will need to make some good gains in the next month and a half or so to maintain my pace.
Currnently, I also own BCE, BIN, G, MFC, and ENF.un - all good companies and leaders in their respective fields. There aren't any more that I am looking to buy on Monday, although I may add more YLO if it clears 6.70 or so.
The markets look a little lofty right now, but I see that the Greece bailout deal was agreed to this weekend so the markets should respond favourable to that. I still think there will be a correction coming soon (the markets, especially in the US have had a good month-long run with no really good reason), so I am reluctant to get too deeply invested. I think that investors are getting lulled into thinking that things are good when they really aren't all that good. Sure, things are better than they were last year, but last year was one of the worst years ever, so that was not a very high bar to beat. Relatively better is not necessarily good enough - things need to actually BE better, and employment and other ecomonic news is not great yet.
YTD, I am up 3.4% so I am back on pace for my 1% per month target for the year. I expect things to slow down between May and September as it usually does so I will need to make some good gains in the next month and a half or so to maintain my pace.
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Starting off Q2 with a Bang
April 1st was a good day for my stocks, which is good to see after the sideways motion I have seen in my stocks since mid-February. I am now up about 3.1% year-to-date, so I am not doing as well as I would have liked to this point but at least I am well ahead of GIC's / bank interest at this point.
I currently own PN (in buy territory right now, but very thin trader), RCI.b, PMZ.un, MFC, SLW, ENF.un, COS.un, TCM, and HSE. COS and HSE have had a good run the last few days, so it is good to see them making up for some lost time.
PMZ and RCI are in sell territory right now, so I will have my stop losses kicked in if they drop much more on Monday. On the buy side, I have HBU and HGU (gold bullion and gold stocks, respectively), BCE, PN (already own), and S. I am looking to pick up HGU, BCE, and S on Monday, on an uptick.
The market has been generally up for the last month and a half or so, but my stocks have been pretty flat. I am only winning on 4/7 trades so far this year, well below last year's 7/10 when the market picked a direction and stuck with it. I don't even mind if the markets go down really, I just want the markets to pick a direction and to go in that direction for a sustained period of time.
That's it for another week. MJ
I currently own PN (in buy territory right now, but very thin trader), RCI.b, PMZ.un, MFC, SLW, ENF.un, COS.un, TCM, and HSE. COS and HSE have had a good run the last few days, so it is good to see them making up for some lost time.
PMZ and RCI are in sell territory right now, so I will have my stop losses kicked in if they drop much more on Monday. On the buy side, I have HBU and HGU (gold bullion and gold stocks, respectively), BCE, PN (already own), and S. I am looking to pick up HGU, BCE, and S on Monday, on an uptick.
The market has been generally up for the last month and a half or so, but my stocks have been pretty flat. I am only winning on 4/7 trades so far this year, well below last year's 7/10 when the market picked a direction and stuck with it. I don't even mind if the markets go down really, I just want the markets to pick a direction and to go in that direction for a sustained period of time.
That's it for another week. MJ
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Another Week in the Books
Sorry I haven't written in a bit, but things are pretty busy for me these days. Also, the market has been less than exciting lately, with things going pretty much sideways for me for the last few weeks (as I expected). With my trading strategy, I need the market to pick a direction (up OR down) and stick with it, and that hasn't been the case lately.
YTD, I am up 2.9%, so I have slipped a little bit during the last few weeks, but still at my goal pace of 1% per month in gains (minimum, of course). The market will likely continue to trade sideways for a couple of more months and then correct over the summer as it normally does (last year being the recent exception, due the massive correction leading into the summer).
Right now, I hold COS.UN, X, ENF.UN, PMZ.UN, HSE, HED, MFC, and BIN. I never seem to make money on the oil stocks like COS.UN and HSE but I continue to buy them when the graphs tell me to. With oil trading in the $70 to $82 range for the last many months, I expect a bit of a pullback from where it is now, and the HED indicates that may just happen.
Next Monday I will look to buy Aecon (ARE) on an uptick, as the lines just crossed on the graph.
In an effort to avoid some of the false buys that I encounter with my method (the line crosses upwards, then turns around downward again), I am going to start waiting until the SECOND day that a stock is in buy territory. I will miss a little bit of the gain but if the stock continues to go up, I will still enjoy most of the gain. If the stock turns around on the second day, then I will not get in at all. Some users of this method wait until the unit price is 3% above the 40-day moving average, but watching for two consecutive days in buy territory is quicker and easier for me.
Have a good week everyone (if anyone is still reading this, that is).
YTD, I am up 2.9%, so I have slipped a little bit during the last few weeks, but still at my goal pace of 1% per month in gains (minimum, of course). The market will likely continue to trade sideways for a couple of more months and then correct over the summer as it normally does (last year being the recent exception, due the massive correction leading into the summer).
Right now, I hold COS.UN, X, ENF.UN, PMZ.UN, HSE, HED, MFC, and BIN. I never seem to make money on the oil stocks like COS.UN and HSE but I continue to buy them when the graphs tell me to. With oil trading in the $70 to $82 range for the last many months, I expect a bit of a pullback from where it is now, and the HED indicates that may just happen.
Next Monday I will look to buy Aecon (ARE) on an uptick, as the lines just crossed on the graph.
In an effort to avoid some of the false buys that I encounter with my method (the line crosses upwards, then turns around downward again), I am going to start waiting until the SECOND day that a stock is in buy territory. I will miss a little bit of the gain but if the stock continues to go up, I will still enjoy most of the gain. If the stock turns around on the second day, then I will not get in at all. Some users of this method wait until the unit price is 3% above the 40-day moving average, but watching for two consecutive days in buy territory is quicker and easier for me.
Have a good week everyone (if anyone is still reading this, that is).
Friday, March 12, 2010
Friday Night Analysis
I know, I really should get a life - looking at stocks on a Friday night isn't exactly exciting. I plan on heading out soon.
I was down marginally for the week, and I am up just over 3% 2010 YTD. I currently own YLO.UN, PMZ.UN, BIN, HSE, X, HEU, HJU, L, and PN (yes, I should have sold it but I think it is at support so I haven't gotten rid of it yet - damn emotional decisions). The buys for Monday are BIN, X and HSE that I already own, plus ENF.UN, FTT, and TCM - all of which I like as stocks (although that doesn't matter when using moving averages to determine when to buy and sell). ENF.UN is the Enbridge Income Fund, FTT (Finning) is a heavy machinery (CAT) dealer, and TCM (Thomson Creek Minerals) is a molybdenum play (substance that is necessary to produce stainless steel).
The sells for Monday are HGU, ECA, and REI.UN - none of which I own right now.
Half-way through March, I am on track for my goal of a 1% per month return for 2010. The markets are trading pretty much sideways right now, but there are certainly positive pockets to invest in.
I was down marginally for the week, and I am up just over 3% 2010 YTD. I currently own YLO.UN, PMZ.UN, BIN, HSE, X, HEU, HJU, L, and PN (yes, I should have sold it but I think it is at support so I haven't gotten rid of it yet - damn emotional decisions). The buys for Monday are BIN, X and HSE that I already own, plus ENF.UN, FTT, and TCM - all of which I like as stocks (although that doesn't matter when using moving averages to determine when to buy and sell). ENF.UN is the Enbridge Income Fund, FTT (Finning) is a heavy machinery (CAT) dealer, and TCM (Thomson Creek Minerals) is a molybdenum play (substance that is necessary to produce stainless steel).
The sells for Monday are HGU, ECA, and REI.UN - none of which I own right now.
Half-way through March, I am on track for my goal of a 1% per month return for 2010. The markets are trading pretty much sideways right now, but there are certainly positive pockets to invest in.
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Week-end Analysis
It was a pretty good week last week, as I was up almost 1% overall. The economic data seemed to be decent so the markets did well, especially the US markets. Right now, I hold YLO.UN, HGU, HSU, HQU, ENF.UN, ECA, FTT, TCW, T, and PN. I am looking to sell ENF.UN on Monday if it goes down a bit and I am looking at selling PN (the only small-cap stock I follow).
Stocks and ETF's that indicate BUY on Monday include HEU, HJU, ECA, FTT, and MFC. I already own ECA and FTT but I will be putting in stop-buys on the other two. HEU is a bit risky as oil is trading at $80 which is at the top of its recent trading range, but the graphs say buy so I buy. There is still about another 1.00 of upside in HEU so I will buy it on upward momentum. I want to get back into international markets so I don't have problem buying HJU. MFC (Manulife) is not the best financial out there but it has been beaten down pretty well lately, so buying a bit now is okay with me (and I just follow the graphs anyway).
I am up about 1% so far in March and about 3.5% since January 1st. My returns are fluid - when you follow them every day and trade as often as I do - but I am happy with the results so far this year.
Stocks and ETF's that indicate BUY on Monday include HEU, HJU, ECA, FTT, and MFC. I already own ECA and FTT but I will be putting in stop-buys on the other two. HEU is a bit risky as oil is trading at $80 which is at the top of its recent trading range, but the graphs say buy so I buy. There is still about another 1.00 of upside in HEU so I will buy it on upward momentum. I want to get back into international markets so I don't have problem buying HJU. MFC (Manulife) is not the best financial out there but it has been beaten down pretty well lately, so buying a bit now is okay with me (and I just follow the graphs anyway).
I am up about 1% so far in March and about 3.5% since January 1st. My returns are fluid - when you follow them every day and trade as often as I do - but I am happy with the results so far this year.
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