Well, I hope everyone is having a nice summer. The volatile markets are very frustrating these days, especially with the correction recently that presented a good buying opportunity for the brave (I am not always brave, especially after 2008).
I am still following the moving average graphs and I am pretty heavily invested right now, given the market instability - I am about 75% in stocks right now, with the remainder in cash (although I am looking to buy more this coming week).
Earnings have been looking pretty steady so far, and the worries in Europe seem to have subsided for the most part. Also, China seems to be back buying commodities again (just look at potash companies last week) so that is a good sign as well. With more positive earnings this week (I think that about 25% of the S&P reports this week), hopefully the strong markets continue.
Currently, I am in AGU, ARE, BCE, CCO, CNQ, CP, FM, FTT, HSE, RCI.B, RUS, SC, SNC, TRP, X, WJA, BTE.UN, and YLO.UN. All of these securities are in the 'hold' range (current price above the 40-day moving average) except for YLO.UN which I am keeping for the exceptional yield.
I am looking at picking up some more securities this coming week that only moved into buy territory late last week. These include HQU (Nasdaq ETF), HSU (US S&P ETF), EXE.UN (Extendicare), PWF (Power Financial), S (Sherritt), and SU (Suncor). As I mentioned in a previous post, I now wait until the SECOND day that a security is in the buy territory before I buy, to try to cut down on false buys (quick stock turnarounds). There are other stocks in their first day of buying (BBD.B, LIF.UN, and more) but I will wait for confirmation to buy them.
In any case, I am heavily invested right now so I don't have too many more stocks to buy anyway. I already own 18 individual securities and I don't want to go above 25 or so, so I will either leave the remaining funds in cash or I will purchase more of something I already own.
Year-to-date, I am at 3.5% return (not my high of the year, but close), which is not too bad given the overall market returns so far this year. I am well ahead of the .5% or so that I would have received in even the highest money market funds and I don't wish to lock in my money into anything longer just to get an extra percent or two in return.
Here's to a continuing strong earnings season, and let's hope we get a nice summer rally before all the traders get back in September so we can really make some gains in the last 4 months of the year.
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Saturday, June 19, 2010
Are the Markets Stabilizing?
After a horrible, choppy May, June has started to look a bit better. I was up 1.6% last week, and I am about 70% invested in securities right now (a high level for me, as anyone who follows my blog knows). Many stocks went into 'Buy' territory during the last week and a half, and I am set to buy more stocks on Monday.
I am currently in BCE, BBD.b, BIN, CNQ, CP, FTT, HEU, HGU, HXU, SLW, T, THI, TRP, ENF.un, EXE.un, and YLO.un (yep, still in the Yellow Pages). Of these securities, BCE and THI are 'Sells' for Monday, HXU, BBD.b, EXE.un, and FTT are still 'Buys' on Monday, and the rest are 'Holds' except for YLO.un. YLO is a 'Buy Soon' but I held onto this one because of the distribution and the balance sheet looks good (the only exception to my trading rules).
After a decent sized correction in May and early June, I am hoping that the markets are in for some gains in the next little while before slowing down in mid-July for the remainder of the summer, picking up again in September as it usually does. At 70% invested, I have more money in stocks than I am comfortable with but I am sticking with the graphs on this one (as I said, last week was good). I have some stop losses in already and I will pull out of my stocks quickly if they start to show serious weakness.
The key in my method is to take advantage of the upswings as much as you can and make as much profit as you can. I never sell exactly at the top but I get out quickly on downswings and hopefully the gains outweigh the losses. If the markets go sideways or down next week, I will lighten the load a bit but if they stay stable or go up, I will purchase more securities.
The 'Buys' for Monday include HFD (I won't buy this one, as the HXU is pointing up), HJU, HXU, BBD.b, COS.un, EXE.un, FTT, LIF.un, MSI.un, and WJA. One adjustment to my method that I have made is that I no longer buy stocks on the first day that they indicate a Buy - I wait until they show two Buy days in a row before I pull the trigger. This has helped to elimate some of the quick 'false Buys' that my method can bring if you buy right away. Another way to do this is to wait until a stock is 3% above the 40-day moving average to buy it but, for me, the two Buy days in a row is quicker and simpler to do.
Here's to another good week coming up...
I am currently in BCE, BBD.b, BIN, CNQ, CP, FTT, HEU, HGU, HXU, SLW, T, THI, TRP, ENF.un, EXE.un, and YLO.un (yep, still in the Yellow Pages). Of these securities, BCE and THI are 'Sells' for Monday, HXU, BBD.b, EXE.un, and FTT are still 'Buys' on Monday, and the rest are 'Holds' except for YLO.un. YLO is a 'Buy Soon' but I held onto this one because of the distribution and the balance sheet looks good (the only exception to my trading rules).
After a decent sized correction in May and early June, I am hoping that the markets are in for some gains in the next little while before slowing down in mid-July for the remainder of the summer, picking up again in September as it usually does. At 70% invested, I have more money in stocks than I am comfortable with but I am sticking with the graphs on this one (as I said, last week was good). I have some stop losses in already and I will pull out of my stocks quickly if they start to show serious weakness.
The key in my method is to take advantage of the upswings as much as you can and make as much profit as you can. I never sell exactly at the top but I get out quickly on downswings and hopefully the gains outweigh the losses. If the markets go sideways or down next week, I will lighten the load a bit but if they stay stable or go up, I will purchase more securities.
The 'Buys' for Monday include HFD (I won't buy this one, as the HXU is pointing up), HJU, HXU, BBD.b, COS.un, EXE.un, FTT, LIF.un, MSI.un, and WJA. One adjustment to my method that I have made is that I no longer buy stocks on the first day that they indicate a Buy - I wait until they show two Buy days in a row before I pull the trigger. This has helped to elimate some of the quick 'false Buys' that my method can bring if you buy right away. Another way to do this is to wait until a stock is 3% above the 40-day moving average to buy it but, for me, the two Buy days in a row is quicker and simpler to do.
Here's to another good week coming up...
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
May Wrap-Up
Sorry for not posting for awhile, but as most of you know, the market has been crazy during the last few weeks. The big daily up and down swings are not good for my method of investing, as I want the market to pick a direction (up or down, I don't care) and stick with it for at least a few weeks (preferably a few months). During the main part of this correction, I did manage to get out of all of my stocks and into some of the 'down' ETF's like HXD and HSD so I actually minimized my losses and made a bit of money during the worst days. Just when I thought the correction would last for a bit, a couple of strong days led me to get rid of the down ETF's and back into stocks.
YTD at the end of May, I was still up 2.5%. This is behind my goal of a 1% gain per month for the year but not bad considering the markets are down YTD for the most part. The goal is to make as much money as possible but to outperform the markets themselves may be a more realistic goal since most people don't do that successfully.
Currently, many of the stocks I follow are in 'don't hold' territory - stocks like Agrium, RIM, Westjet, CP Rail, Baytex, Manulife, Manitoba Telecom, and many others - but I have been buying some other stocks recently.
I currently own BCE, Enbridge Income Fund, Encana, Loblaw, Riocan Income Fund, Rogers Communication, Silver Wheaton, and the ETF's HGU (double gold stocks up) and HSU (double US S&P up). Many of these stocks had a very bad June 1 but bounced back nicely on June 2. This type of volatility is not for the faint of heart and, as I said earlier, is not good for my investing strategy as it gives me many false buys and sells.
For the most part, the securities I own are currently even to up a bit, although this can change quickly. Many investing professionals (such as the ones on CNBC and BNN) are recommending to sell securities into any strength and to sit in cash until the end of the summer. The 'sell in May and stay away' strategy is well known as a summer strategy but I will continue my method and hope for either a summer rally or a correction (as long as we don't get one day up, the next day down I am pretty happy).
I don't think my 1% per month gain average is realistic now, and I am now hoping for .5% per month for the year, which will still substantially outpace fixed income (and the markets themselves, at this point). Of course, the year isn't quite half over yet so anything could happen, but 'an outbreak of stability' doesn't appear to be coming anytime soon, with European debt crises, Korean political problems, the BP oil spill, Chinese weakness, and other issues weighing the markets down. While most people do want the markets to go up, it seems to be much easier to trigger big market sell-offs on bad news (even if it is not really even THAT bad).
May 2010 was only my second down month in the last 19 months (October 2009 was the other one, and I had one EVEN month), so I guess that isn't too bad considering the shape the markets have been in during most of that time. I will continue to use my method, and see where that takes me. You just have to learn to take a deep breath some days, and take it (the losses) in stride.
YTD at the end of May, I was still up 2.5%. This is behind my goal of a 1% gain per month for the year but not bad considering the markets are down YTD for the most part. The goal is to make as much money as possible but to outperform the markets themselves may be a more realistic goal since most people don't do that successfully.
Currently, many of the stocks I follow are in 'don't hold' territory - stocks like Agrium, RIM, Westjet, CP Rail, Baytex, Manulife, Manitoba Telecom, and many others - but I have been buying some other stocks recently.
I currently own BCE, Enbridge Income Fund, Encana, Loblaw, Riocan Income Fund, Rogers Communication, Silver Wheaton, and the ETF's HGU (double gold stocks up) and HSU (double US S&P up). Many of these stocks had a very bad June 1 but bounced back nicely on June 2. This type of volatility is not for the faint of heart and, as I said earlier, is not good for my investing strategy as it gives me many false buys and sells.
For the most part, the securities I own are currently even to up a bit, although this can change quickly. Many investing professionals (such as the ones on CNBC and BNN) are recommending to sell securities into any strength and to sit in cash until the end of the summer. The 'sell in May and stay away' strategy is well known as a summer strategy but I will continue my method and hope for either a summer rally or a correction (as long as we don't get one day up, the next day down I am pretty happy).
I don't think my 1% per month gain average is realistic now, and I am now hoping for .5% per month for the year, which will still substantially outpace fixed income (and the markets themselves, at this point). Of course, the year isn't quite half over yet so anything could happen, but 'an outbreak of stability' doesn't appear to be coming anytime soon, with European debt crises, Korean political problems, the BP oil spill, Chinese weakness, and other issues weighing the markets down. While most people do want the markets to go up, it seems to be much easier to trigger big market sell-offs on bad news (even if it is not really even THAT bad).
May 2010 was only my second down month in the last 19 months (October 2009 was the other one, and I had one EVEN month), so I guess that isn't too bad considering the shape the markets have been in during most of that time. I will continue to use my method, and see where that takes me. You just have to learn to take a deep breath some days, and take it (the losses) in stride.
Saturday, May 1, 2010
Behind YTD Target, but back in YLO.un
My overall balance hit a high on April 26 but a weak close to the month (caused primarily by the Greek debt crisis, apparently) has left me at a YTD gain of 3.6% - behind my YTD goal of 4% (1% per month for the year).
I am back in Yellow Pages Income Fund, as I bought back in on a dip mid-week and I am again enjoying the roughly 12% yield (or I do, at least, when the distributions are paid out every month).
I also currently own ECA (Encana), WJA (Westjet), SNC (SNC Lavalin), BCE (Bell), MBT (Manitoba Telecom), THI (Tim Horton's), RCI.B (Rogers Communications), REI (Riocan REIT), and HFU (Financial Bull ETF).
For May 3, the only security that I follow that is a 'buy' is MBT but I already just bought it so I don't need to buy more (yet).
The sells for May 3 include SNC (which I own) and many that I don't own such as HJU, HSE, L, and LIF.UN. Since I don't own these securities, I don't have to sell them just stay out of them for now. Since they are at the sell point right now, a slight gain in any of them would put them into 'buy' territory.
May might be the last month with decent trading action for awhile, since June through August are typically slow months. I would like to make some gains in May before the summer, but I won't alter my method to do so.
I am back in Yellow Pages Income Fund, as I bought back in on a dip mid-week and I am again enjoying the roughly 12% yield (or I do, at least, when the distributions are paid out every month).
I also currently own ECA (Encana), WJA (Westjet), SNC (SNC Lavalin), BCE (Bell), MBT (Manitoba Telecom), THI (Tim Horton's), RCI.B (Rogers Communications), REI (Riocan REIT), and HFU (Financial Bull ETF).
For May 3, the only security that I follow that is a 'buy' is MBT but I already just bought it so I don't need to buy more (yet).
The sells for May 3 include SNC (which I own) and many that I don't own such as HJU, HSE, L, and LIF.UN. Since I don't own these securities, I don't have to sell them just stay out of them for now. Since they are at the sell point right now, a slight gain in any of them would put them into 'buy' territory.
May might be the last month with decent trading action for awhile, since June through August are typically slow months. I would like to make some gains in May before the summer, but I won't alter my method to do so.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Not in Yellow Pages, and Not Liking It...
As you know, I had jumped back into Yellow Pages - I made some quick money then got stopped out as the price settled back for a couple of days. It looked like I might be able to buy it back at lower prices until Friday, when it jumped again. If Yellow Pages passes through $7, I will likely buy back in with a plan to ride it to $8 and beyond.
Now, for what I actually DO own right now. I own BCE, HGU (gold stock bull ETF), ENF.un (Enbridge), L (Loblaw), SNC, REI.un (RioCan), RCI.b (Rogers), THI (Tim Horton's), and TRP (TransCanada Pipelines). I am about 26% invested in securities right now, with the rest in cash. I expect a pullback soon (likely 8 - 12%) and then probably a slow summer (as per normal), so I am a bit worried about getting too heavily invested. I actually don't mind a pullback, especially if it is a prolonged downturn, since I will simply move to the 'Down' ETF's, that rise in price when their underlying market or sector drops in price.
Also, since I follow the graphs, I have to wait until they tell me to buy a stock before I proceed. Many of the stocks I follow are in 'Hold' territory but I don't own them, mostly since I got stopped out on them while protecting gains. It makes it hard to buy back into these securities when they continue to go up later.
As for buys that are coming up on Monday, there are a few that I already own such as BCE, SNC, and TRP - I only recently bought them and they are still buys now, being just above the 40-day moving average. If they turn back negative and go back below the line, I have to be ready to unload them.
There are other buys as well, such as HOU (oil stock bull ETF), BTE.un (my favourite oil and gas trust), and G (Goldcorp). I will be putting in stop-buys for BTE.un and G but I don't want to buy HOU at this time as oil prices are already at a long-time high (and I DO consider other factors sometimes when buying stocks, not just the moving averages). I will be buying BTE.un, however, so I will have some exposure to oil prices anyway (and I also own Enbridge and TransCanada, which are in sectors that are related to oil).
I have been watching natural gas lately, and it is due for a price rebound, especially if there is a warm summer in the US and Canada. The shale gas plays, along with LNG from outside North America, has been driving down natural gas prices to ridiculously low levels, but I don't want to jump in too soon and get burned on a further drop. I plan to play natural gas through HNU (natural gas ETF), and it is in 'Buy Soon' territory, so a couple of up days in natural gas and I would have to jump in. Timing on this is very important since natural gas prices are so volatile, so I have to be ready to jump back out again at any time.
I was up for the fourth straight week this week, and I am now at 4.2% year-to-date, so I am on pace for my goal of a 1% gain per month for the year. Certainly not as exciting as the 50% gain that I achieved last year, but certainly more realistic given normal market conditions. I hope to make some gains in the next few weeks before the expected summer slow down after May ends.
If anyone is still reading my posts and has any questions about a stock they follow or has some feedback as to how they have used any of my method in their own investing, I would love to hear it so drop me a line.
Now, for what I actually DO own right now. I own BCE, HGU (gold stock bull ETF), ENF.un (Enbridge), L (Loblaw), SNC, REI.un (RioCan), RCI.b (Rogers), THI (Tim Horton's), and TRP (TransCanada Pipelines). I am about 26% invested in securities right now, with the rest in cash. I expect a pullback soon (likely 8 - 12%) and then probably a slow summer (as per normal), so I am a bit worried about getting too heavily invested. I actually don't mind a pullback, especially if it is a prolonged downturn, since I will simply move to the 'Down' ETF's, that rise in price when their underlying market or sector drops in price.
Also, since I follow the graphs, I have to wait until they tell me to buy a stock before I proceed. Many of the stocks I follow are in 'Hold' territory but I don't own them, mostly since I got stopped out on them while protecting gains. It makes it hard to buy back into these securities when they continue to go up later.
As for buys that are coming up on Monday, there are a few that I already own such as BCE, SNC, and TRP - I only recently bought them and they are still buys now, being just above the 40-day moving average. If they turn back negative and go back below the line, I have to be ready to unload them.
There are other buys as well, such as HOU (oil stock bull ETF), BTE.un (my favourite oil and gas trust), and G (Goldcorp). I will be putting in stop-buys for BTE.un and G but I don't want to buy HOU at this time as oil prices are already at a long-time high (and I DO consider other factors sometimes when buying stocks, not just the moving averages). I will be buying BTE.un, however, so I will have some exposure to oil prices anyway (and I also own Enbridge and TransCanada, which are in sectors that are related to oil).
I have been watching natural gas lately, and it is due for a price rebound, especially if there is a warm summer in the US and Canada. The shale gas plays, along with LNG from outside North America, has been driving down natural gas prices to ridiculously low levels, but I don't want to jump in too soon and get burned on a further drop. I plan to play natural gas through HNU (natural gas ETF), and it is in 'Buy Soon' territory, so a couple of up days in natural gas and I would have to jump in. Timing on this is very important since natural gas prices are so volatile, so I have to be ready to jump back out again at any time.
I was up for the fourth straight week this week, and I am now at 4.2% year-to-date, so I am on pace for my goal of a 1% gain per month for the year. Certainly not as exciting as the 50% gain that I achieved last year, but certainly more realistic given normal market conditions. I hope to make some gains in the next few weeks before the expected summer slow down after May ends.
If anyone is still reading my posts and has any questions about a stock they follow or has some feedback as to how they have used any of my method in their own investing, I would love to hear it so drop me a line.
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Mid-April Update
I am glad I got back into YLO in the mid to low 6.30's, as it recovered to end the week over 6.40 and I think it will go much higher (I am predicting at least $9 before the end of 2010, but time will tell on that one).
Currently, I am also in just a few stocks - YLO.un, ENF.un (Enbridge Income Fund), G (Goldcorp), SNC (SNC Lavalin), L (Loblaw), and BIN (BFI Canada). I will probably have to lighten the load on Monday, though, as both G and SNC at at sell levels and L may be there in another day or two. Stock markets have done well lately, in general, but some bad news late last week may turn them negatively for a while. In any case, I just continue to follow the graphs.
I am up 3.7% year-to-date, so I am still on track for my target of a 1% gain per month (minimum) for the year. I expect the summer months to be slow, as they typically are, so I need to get some gains in April and May to set myself up for the rest of the year.
Currently, I am also in just a few stocks - YLO.un, ENF.un (Enbridge Income Fund), G (Goldcorp), SNC (SNC Lavalin), L (Loblaw), and BIN (BFI Canada). I will probably have to lighten the load on Monday, though, as both G and SNC at at sell levels and L may be there in another day or two. Stock markets have done well lately, in general, but some bad news late last week may turn them negatively for a while. In any case, I just continue to follow the graphs.
I am up 3.7% year-to-date, so I am still on track for my target of a 1% gain per month (minimum) for the year. I expect the summer months to be slow, as they typically are, so I need to get some gains in April and May to set myself up for the rest of the year.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Back Into the Yellow Pages Again
As I have written, I don't strictly follow the buy / sell lines, as I do set stop losses to protect gains once a stock I own has gone up. Due to this, I was stopped out of Yellow Pages Income Fund (YLO.un) - a trust that I didn't really want to sell due to its turnaround, good momentum, and great yield. Well, I got back into some YLO last week, just ahead of the big jump on Friday. I had noticed that it seemed to have a double or triple top at 6.25 to 6.30, meaning that it hadn't been able to get through that level on earlier attempts. Once I saw that YLO had cleared the 6.35 level, I bought a few thousand shares. I think that the unit price will continue to climb (or stay steady at least), and the monthly yield is still over 12%.
Currnently, I also own BCE, BIN, G, MFC, and ENF.un - all good companies and leaders in their respective fields. There aren't any more that I am looking to buy on Monday, although I may add more YLO if it clears 6.70 or so.
The markets look a little lofty right now, but I see that the Greece bailout deal was agreed to this weekend so the markets should respond favourable to that. I still think there will be a correction coming soon (the markets, especially in the US have had a good month-long run with no really good reason), so I am reluctant to get too deeply invested. I think that investors are getting lulled into thinking that things are good when they really aren't all that good. Sure, things are better than they were last year, but last year was one of the worst years ever, so that was not a very high bar to beat. Relatively better is not necessarily good enough - things need to actually BE better, and employment and other ecomonic news is not great yet.
YTD, I am up 3.4% so I am back on pace for my 1% per month target for the year. I expect things to slow down between May and September as it usually does so I will need to make some good gains in the next month and a half or so to maintain my pace.
Currnently, I also own BCE, BIN, G, MFC, and ENF.un - all good companies and leaders in their respective fields. There aren't any more that I am looking to buy on Monday, although I may add more YLO if it clears 6.70 or so.
The markets look a little lofty right now, but I see that the Greece bailout deal was agreed to this weekend so the markets should respond favourable to that. I still think there will be a correction coming soon (the markets, especially in the US have had a good month-long run with no really good reason), so I am reluctant to get too deeply invested. I think that investors are getting lulled into thinking that things are good when they really aren't all that good. Sure, things are better than they were last year, but last year was one of the worst years ever, so that was not a very high bar to beat. Relatively better is not necessarily good enough - things need to actually BE better, and employment and other ecomonic news is not great yet.
YTD, I am up 3.4% so I am back on pace for my 1% per month target for the year. I expect things to slow down between May and September as it usually does so I will need to make some good gains in the next month and a half or so to maintain my pace.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
